Iran faces escalating airstrikes as regional conflict intensifies near Trump administration deadline.

WHAT HAPPENED Multiple airstrikes targeted Iranian cities, killing over 25 people as an unspecified Trump administration deadline approaches. The attacks represent a material escalation in regional conflict, with strikes occurring within Iranian sovereign territory rather than proxy locations.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: conflict near economic infrastructure triggers insurance repricing and geopolitical risk premiums. The causal chain runs territorial strikes → credible threat assessment for energy infrastructure (Iran controls 21% of global oil transit through Strait of Hormuz) → war risk insurance premiums spike → crude futures reprice upward on supply disruption probability. Secondary transmission: regional conflict escalation → safe-haven demand for gold and Treasuries.

Brent crude: bid 3-6% on geopolitical risk premium, currently at $94.09 versus FRED's $123.28 reading suggests recent compression. WTI: similar magnitude move from $90.57. GLD: continued safe-haven bid from current $429.57. TLT: defensive bid as yields compress from 4.26% on 10-year. VIX: expect elevation above current 19.5 as tail risks reprice. Short regional energy infrastructure plays. Iranian sovereign CDS: massive widening if tradeable.

MEDIUM. Strikes within Iranian territory represent clear escalation, but transmission depends on proximity to critical energy infrastructure. Historical precedent from Abqaiq-Khurais shows 15% single-session oil spikes possible, though risk premiums fade without follow-up attacks.

Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure. Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions or threats. US military deployment announcements. Insurance market war risk premium adjustments above 1% of hull value.