Iran air strikes escalate Strait of Hormuz tensions, threatening global oil transit routes.

WHAT HAPPENED Air strikes on Iran killed over 25 personnel as tensions escalate near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a Trump administration deadline. The strikes occurred amid heightened military posturing around the critical chokepoint that handles 30% of global seaborne oil transit, approximately 21 million barrels per day.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: military action near critical energy infrastructure triggers immediate insurance repricing and contingency hedging. The causal chain runs strikes near Strait → war risk premium spike (Lloyd's market repricing transit insurance) → tanker operators demand force majeure clauses → oil futures reprice on supply disruption probability. Secondary channel: Trump deadline creates binary escalation risk, forcing systematic hedging by refiners and trading houses.

Brent front-month: bid toward $105-107 range (currently $101.35) on geopolitical risk premium. WTI: sympathetic move to $95-97 from current $92.48. USO: direct beneficiary of crude strength. TLT: safe-haven bid despite current $86.74 level as VIX at 18.92 signals contained but rising risk appetite. Defence contractors (RTX, LMT, NOC): immediate beneficiaries. European refiners: margin compression on input cost volatility. Short risk assets if escalation materialises.

MEDIUM. Strait proximity makes the threat mechanically enforceable, but historical precedent shows most chokepoint tensions resolve without sustained disruption. Trump deadline creates genuine binary risk that insurance markets must price immediately.

US military deployment announcements to Gulf region. Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval activity reports. Tanker insurance premium data from Joint War Committee. Oil inventory draw acceleration as refiners build strategic buffers.