HY Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
HY effective yield minus 10Y captures the total yield premium available in high yield. HY yields above 8% have historically offered double-digit forward returns regardless of spread levels. The absolute yield level matters as much as the spread because default rates historically stay below 5% in most regimes.
Cross-Asset Analysis
HY Effective Yield (HY corporate bond effective yield, total return required by junk bond investors) and 10Y Treasury Yield (yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark) are priced in separate markets, yet their co-movement tells macro desks something neither series reveals alone. Regime identification based on HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield can be self-reinforcing, because extreme spread values often clear via mean reversion or regime change. Macro funds use the HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread to implement views cleaner than single-asset trades, distilling the specific macro factor they want to bet on.
Leverage embedded in the paired markets behind HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield transmits the same shock at asymmetric magnitudes. Policy interventions can mechanically narrow or expand the HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread, most notably when central banks purchase specific asset classes. Liquidity-driven windows produce cross-asset alignment in HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield; fundamentals-driven regimes produce divergence.
Cross-asset flows trail macro regime changes with typical lags, which is why spreads like HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield often front-run coincident indicators. The Credit & Financial Stress and Yield Curve & Rates corners of the market hold in common underlying drivers but split in sensitivity, and the HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread captures those sensitivities.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does HY Effective Yield typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
HY Effective Yield tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in HY Effective Yield precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in HY Effective Yield or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is HY Effective Yield a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Cross-asset hedges between HY Effective Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the HY Effective Yield-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.