Dollar Index vs 10Y Treasury
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Dollar strength is typically supported by rising US yields because higher yields attract foreign capital. When the dollar strengthens without rising yields, it reflects global risk-off or capital flight to safety. When yields rise but the dollar falls, US fiscal concerns or global recovery are outweighing yield differentials.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) represents broad trade-weighted US dollar index, measures dollar strength vs major trading partners and 10Y Treasury Yield represents yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark, which is why this comparison sits in the cross asset pair category on Convex. Cross-asset pairs like Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) versus 10Y Treasury Yield expose the macro variables that traverse asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite. Correlation trading desks quote options on the Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)-10Y Treasury Yield spread once the core relationship has been calibrated across adequate regimes.
Structural shifts affecting Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) or 10Y Treasury Yield, including retail demand or regulatory changes, can persistently reprice the relationship. The FX & Dollar and Yield Curve & Rates domains share structural drivers but split in sensitivity, and the Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)-10Y Treasury Yield spread expresses those sensitivities. Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar underlie most cross-asset relationships, and when these change Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield both respond at varying speeds.
Regime dating based on Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)-10Y Treasury Yield can be circular, because extreme spread values often resolve via mean reversion or regime change. Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) belongs to the FX & Dollar space, whereas 10Y Treasury Yield belongs to Yield Curve & Rates, and the interaction between those two worlds is where the relevant macro information resides.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Cross-asset hedges between Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and 10Y Treasury Yield work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.