10Y Treasury vs Case-Shiller Home Prices
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Rising 10Y yields typically slow home price appreciation through mortgage-rate transmission. The post-2022 period saw yields rise dramatically while home prices held up due to inventory shortages. When home prices finally soften while yields fall, rate relief arrives as prices give back. The relationship captures housing market rate sensitivity.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: 10Y Treasury Yield is yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark, and Case-Shiller Home Price Index is s&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar drive most cross-asset relationships, and when these change 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index both respond at varying speeds. Structural shifts reshaping 10Y Treasury Yield or Case-Shiller Home Price Index, including retail demand or regulatory changes, can persistently recalibrate the relationship.
Name-specific shocks in either 10Y Treasury Yield or Case-Shiller Home Price Index produce spread moves independent of the underlying macro story. Tactical allocators rotate across the 10Y Treasury Yield-Case-Shiller Home Price Index spread based on where each asset sits relative to its fundamental anchor. Correlation trading desks price options on the 10Y Treasury Yield-Case-Shiller Home Price Index spread once the base relationship has been calibrated across adequate regimes.
Macro funds use the 10Y Treasury Yield-Case-Shiller Home Price Index spread to articulate views cleaner than single-asset trades, distilling the particular macro factor they want to bet on. Risk-off regimes compress correlations and force the 10Y Treasury Yield-Case-Shiller Home Price Index spread into narrower ranges.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index?+
10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 10Y Treasury Yield typically lead Case-Shiller Home Price Index?+
10Y Treasury Yield tends to lead Case-Shiller Home Price Index during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in 10Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in Case-Shiller Home Price Index by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 10Y Treasury Yield-Case-Shiller Home Price Index relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index?+
Divergence between 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 10Y Treasury Yield or Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Is 10Y Treasury Yield a hedge for Case-Shiller Home Price Index?+
Cross-asset hedges between 10Y Treasury Yield and Case-Shiller Home Price Index work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 10Y Treasury Yield-Case-Shiller Home Price Index pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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