Durable Goods Orders vs Core Capital Goods Orders
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Headline durable goods orders include volatile transportation (aircraft). The core measure (neworder, or new orders excluding defense and aircraft) is the cleanest proxy for underlying business capex. Wide divergence between them typically reflects Boeing order timing rather than true capex cycles.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: Durable Goods Orders is new orders for manufactured durable goods, proxy for business investment intentions, and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) is manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft, core capex proxy. Structural shifts affecting Durable Goods Orders or Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air), including retail demand or regulatory changes, can persistently reprice the relationship. Analysts merge Durable Goods Orders with Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) to build cross-asset indicators that are tougher to game than any single-market series.
Leverage embedded in the two markets behind Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) transmits the same shock at asymmetric magnitudes. In risk-on regimes, correlations across asset classes settle toward historical values, and the Durable Goods Orders-Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) spread typically obey its historical fair value. Cross-asset pairs like Durable Goods Orders against Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) expose the macro variables that traverse asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite.
Tactical allocators rebalance across the Durable Goods Orders-Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) spread based on where each asset sits relative to its fundamental anchor. Policy-driven transitions introduce sudden repricing into the Durable Goods Orders-Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) relationship because the two markets respond to policy guidance on different timescales.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)?+
Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Durable Goods Orders typically lead Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)?+
Durable Goods Orders tends to lead Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Durable Goods Orders precede corresponding moves in Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Durable Goods Orders-Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)?+
Divergence between Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Durable Goods Orders or Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air).
Is Durable Goods Orders a hedge for Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Durable Goods Orders and Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Durable Goods Orders-Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.