WTI Oil vs 10Y Treasury
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Oil and 10Y yields often move together because oil feeds into breakeven inflation, which feeds into nominal yields. Divergence is informative: oil rallying while yields fall signals supply shock narratives without Fed response. Yields rising while oil falls indicates Fed expectations moving independently of commodity inflation.
Cross-Asset Analysis
WTI Crude Oil (FRED) (west Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price) and 10Y Treasury Yield (yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark) are priced in separate markets, yet their co-movement tells macro desks something neither series reveals alone. Analysts merge WTI Crude Oil (FRED) with 10Y Treasury Yield to build cross-asset indicators that are tougher to game than any single-market series. Liquidity-driven windows produce cross-asset correlation in WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield; fundamentals-driven regimes produce divergence.
Structural shifts affecting WTI Crude Oil (FRED) or 10Y Treasury Yield, including retail demand or regulatory changes, can persistently reprice the relationship. Tactical allocators rebalance across the WTI Crude Oil (FRED)-10Y Treasury Yield spread based on where each asset sits relative to its fundamental anchor. Risk-off regimes compress correlations and force the WTI Crude Oil (FRED)-10Y Treasury Yield spread into narrower ranges.
Policy-driven transitions introduce fast repricing into the WTI Crude Oil (FRED)-10Y Treasury Yield relationship because the two markets react to policy guidance on different timescales. Correlation trading desks quote options on the WTI Crude Oil (FRED)-10Y Treasury Yield spread once the base relationship has been mapped across enough regimes.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does WTI Crude Oil (FRED) typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
WTI Crude Oil (FRED) tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in WTI Crude Oil (FRED) precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the WTI Crude Oil (FRED)-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in WTI Crude Oil (FRED) or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is WTI Crude Oil (FRED) a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Cross-asset hedges between WTI Crude Oil (FRED) and 10Y Treasury Yield work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the WTI Crude Oil (FRED)-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.