Analysis Archive
Page 2 of 3 · 75 articles total
- macro · May 13, 2026
Gold's $4,700 Anomaly: Why Disinflation Did Not Kill the Rally
Gold traded near $4,700 in mid-May 2026 even after the inflation shock of 2022 faded and real yields stayed positive. The clean explanation is not a resurrected CPI trade. It is a reserve-allocation trade: central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 through 2024 and another 863 tonnes in 2025, changing who sets the marginal price.
- rates · May 13, 2026
The Fed's 8-4 Split Is a Coordination Problem
The April 28-29, 2026 FOMC vote was not a normal hold. It was an 8-4 decision in which one voter wanted an immediate cut and three others supported the hold while rejecting the statement's easing bias. That is not a simple hawk-versus-dove split. It is a communication problem: the committee can agree on today's rate while disagreeing on what today's language commits it to tomorrow.
- Geopolitics · May 10, 2026
Putin Says Ukraine War Is Ending: What Markets Face Monday
A weekend statement with no live market to absorb it leaves Monday's open as the first real verdict.
- Geopolitics · May 6, 2026
Trump Pauses Hormuz Operation: What the Retreat Reveals
A military stand-down mid-operation is not de-escalation, it's a negotiating move with a price tag measured in barrels.