What Happens to 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) When the Quits Rate Collapses?
What happens when the JOLTS quits rate collapses below 2.0%? Loss of worker confidence, wage growth deceleration, and recession risk implications.
How 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) Responds
Scenario Background
The quits rate measures the percentage of the workforce voluntarily leaving jobs each month. It reflects worker confidence: people quit when they believe they can find better positions elsewhere. A quits rate above 2.5% historically signals a tight labor market with strong wage pressure, while a reading below 2.0% indicates workers are staying put, often out of caution about finding new employment.
Read full scenario analysis →Historical Context
The quits rate peaked near 3.0% in late 2021 during the "Great Resignation" and normalized to roughly 2.1% by 2024. Pre-pandemic peaks were 2.4% in 2018-2019. Historical collapses include 2001 (2.4% to 1.7%), 2008-2009 (2.1% to 1.2%), and March 2020 (2.3% to 1.5%). In each case, wage growth decelerated within 2 to 4 quarters and unemployment rose.
What to Watch For
- •Quits rate falling below 1.9%
- •Layoffs rate rising above 1.2% simultaneously
- •Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker declining below 4%
- •Unemployment rate rising 0.3% over three months
- •Job-switcher wage premium narrowing below 2%
Other Assets When the Quits Rate Collapses
Other Scenarios Affecting 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)
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