Scenario × Asset Analysis

What Happens to Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90?

Gold-silver ratio above 90 signals industrial or financial stress. What happens when gold dramatically outpaces silver, a classic late-cycle warning?

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

$268.71

as of Apr 14, 2026

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Trigger: Gold (Spot)

$4,863.67

Condition: gold-silver ratio exceeds 90

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How Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Responds

When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90, Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) typically faces selling pressure as risk appetite contracts. iShares Russell 2000 ETF, small-cap equity benchmark. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Gold (Spot) directly influence the macro environment for Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)'s response to position accordingly.

Scenario Background

The gold-silver ratio measures ounces of silver per one ounce of gold. The long-run historical average runs 50-70, but has ranged from 15 (1980) to 125 (2020 COVID). A ratio above 90 signals that gold is dramatically outperforming silver, typically indicating either financial stress (flight to monetary metal) or industrial weakness (silver has 50% industrial demand).

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Historical Context

The gold-silver ratio exceeded 90 during 1991 (peak 100), 2003 (peak 80+ briefly), 2016 (85), 2019-2020 (peak 125 in March 2020), and 2022-2025 (peaked near 95 multiple times). The March 2020 peak at 125 was the highest on record, driven by silver industrial demand collapse during COVID. The subsequent silver rally from $12 to $28 produced a 130% return in five months. The 2016 episode saw gold-silver peak near 85, followed by silver outperformance of 30% over the subsequent year. Historically, ...