Smart Money Positioning
Where are institutional and commercial players positioned right now? Live CFTC Commitments of Traders data, cross-asset divergence alerts, and macro regime context. Every number is data-driven — no editorial opinion.
Positioning Dashboard — CFTC Commitments of Traders
Net speculative = non-commercial long − short. Commercial net = commercial long − short. Percentile rank vs 52-week history. Conviction reflects positioning extremes — contrarian framing.
Commodities
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoldGC | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
| Crude OilWTI | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
| CopperHG | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
Equity Indices
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500ES | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
Currencies
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro FXEUR | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
| Japanese YenJPY | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
Rates
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30Y TreasuryZB | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
| 10Y TreasuryZN | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
Crypto
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC | — | — | — | 0/10 wks | — | Building baseline |
Building percentile baseline (need 10+ weeks): Gold (GC), Crude Oil (WTI), Copper (HG), S&P 500 (ES), Euro FX (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), 30Y Treasury (ZB), 10Y Treasury (ZN), Bitcoin (BTC)
Divergence Alerts
Where smart money positioning conflicts with price action or cross-asset signals. Algorithmically detected, not editorial.
No statistically significant divergences detected. Markets are broadly aligned.
Macro Regime Context
Signal Timeline
Signal detection requires 10+ weeks of positioning history to establish baseline percentile ranks.
Currently building baseline for: Gold (GC), Crude Oil (WTI), Copper (HG), S&P 500 (ES), Euro FX (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), 30Y Treasury (ZB), 10Y Treasury (ZN), Bitcoin (BTC). Existing contracts with full history will surface signals as they occur.
Methodology
Positioning data sourced from CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy Futures-Only report), published weekly. Percentile ranks computed against 52-week rolling history. Conviction labels reflect positioning extremes: ≥90th or ≤10th percentile = extreme, ≥75th or ≤25th = crowded.
Divergence alerts are computed algorithmically using z-score analysis across correlated market pairs and CFTC positioning vs price action. No editorial judgment or AI-generated narratives are used on this page.
Regime context uses Convex Intelligence Indices (CVRP, CRAI, CNLI) plus yield curve and real rates data from FRED.