Smart Money Positioning
Where are institutional and commercial players positioned right now? Live CFTC Commitments of Traders data, cross-asset divergence alerts, and macro regime context. Every number is data-driven — no editorial opinion.
Latest COT report: Jul 28, 2026
Market Snapshot
Positioning Dashboard — CFTC Commitments of Traders
Net speculative = non-commercial long − short. Commercial net = commercial long − short. Percentile rank vs 52-week history. Conviction reflects positioning extremes — contrarian framing.
Commodities
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoldGC | 182,070 | -212,309 | 384,603 | 44% | -1,840 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| Crude OilWTI | 3,973 | -8,497 | 781,193 | 42% | -8,541 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| CopperHG | 67,281 | -76,161 | 274,552 | 81% | -6,696 | CROWDED LONG— positioning elevated |
Equity Indices
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500ES | -19,085 | -89,481 | 2,007,178 | 94% | +1,913 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Currencies
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro FXEUR | -72,447 | 51,714 | 819,806 | 4% | -31,109 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| Japanese YenJPY | -163,412 | 158,025 | 432,366 | 13% | -11,287 | CROWDED SHORT— positioning depressed |
Rates
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30Y TreasuryZB | -217,497 | 115,889 | 1,859,732 | 4% | -30,707 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| 10Y TreasuryZN | -876,119 | 890,267 | 5,313,478 | 40% | +3,587 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
Crypto
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC | 3,904 | -3,562 | 20,019 | 92% | +850 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Divergence Alerts
Where smart money positioning conflicts with price action or cross-asset signals. Algorithmically detected, not editorial.
Net speculative at 92th percentile (crowded long) while Bitcoin price down -4.9%
Signal: CROWDED_REVERSAL · Implication: Speculative positioning extreme not confirmed by price action — long liquidation / reversal risk
VIX falling while HY Spread rising
Vol mispriced relative to credit stress, VIX likely to spike
Macro Regime Context
Positioning Implications
- ·CVRP at 22: low recession probability — growth-oriented positioning supported
- ·CRAI at 61: risk appetite neutral — no strong directional bias
- ·Yield curve flat (0.47%): transition signal — positioning shifts typically follow
- ·Real rates at 2.41%: restrictive — headwind for gold and growth stocks
Signal Timeline
Methodology
Positioning data sourced from CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy Futures-Only report), published weekly. Percentile ranks computed against 52-week rolling history. Conviction labels reflect positioning extremes: ≥90th or ≤10th percentile = extreme, ≥75th or ≤25th = crowded.
Divergence alerts are computed algorithmically using z-score analysis across correlated market pairs and CFTC positioning vs price action. No editorial judgment or AI-generated narratives are used on this page.
Regime context uses Convex Intelligence Indices (CVRP, CRAI, CNLI) plus yield curve and real rates data from FRED.