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Smart Money Positioning

Where are institutional and commercial players positioned right now? Live CFTC Commitments of Traders data, cross-asset divergence alerts, and macro regime context. Every number is data-driven — no editorial opinion.

Latest COT report: Jun 9, 2026

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
$750.66-0.5%
Bitcoin
$64,850-1.8%
Ethereum
$1,755.17-2.6%
Gold (Spot)
$4,351.9-0.2%
WTI Crude Oil
$75.86-1.1%
Brent Crude Oil
$79.63-1.2%
Natural Gas
$3.16+0.5%
VIX
16.2 index+0.0%
10Y Treasury Yield
4.47%+0.0%
2Y Treasury Yield
4.07%+0.0%

Positioning Dashboard — CFTC Commitments of Traders

Net speculative = non-commercial long − short. Commercial net = commercial long − short. Percentile rank vs 52-week history. Conviction reflects positioning extremes — contrarian framing.

Commodities

ContractNet SpecComm NetOpen Int52w PctileWk ΔConviction
GoldGC173,837-201,036332,7092%-2,183
EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity
Crude OilWTI3,379-4,646818,4926%+11,230
EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity
CopperHG74,450-83,935274,33154%-4,383
NEUTRAL— no extreme

Equity Indices

ContractNet SpecComm NetOpen Int52w PctileWk ΔConviction
S&P 500ES-194,55488,0562,242,00498%+19,755
EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal

Currencies

ContractNet SpecComm NetOpen Int52w PctileWk ΔConviction
Euro FXEUR13,932-38,085871,5072%-34,934
EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity
Japanese YenJPY-145,818142,369505,0752%-16,251
EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity

Rates

ContractNet SpecComm NetOpen Int52w PctileWk ΔConviction
30Y TreasuryZB-163,30567,8441,881,98748%-3,452
NEUTRAL— no extreme
10Y TreasuryZN-863,807864,6955,251,29546%-34,232
NEUTRAL— no extreme

Crypto

ContractNet SpecComm NetOpen Int52w PctileWk ΔConviction
BitcoinBTC3,018-2,90619,776100%+560
EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal

Divergence Alerts

Where smart money positioning conflicts with price action or cross-asset signals. Algorithmically detected, not editorial.

CONFIRMEDYIELD CURVE vs BANKSz: -2.3

10Y-2Y Spread falling while KRE rising

Hit rate: 60%Median resolution: 30dData points: 60

Market skeptical of curve move, watch for confirmation

Macro Regime Context

STAGFLATIONTRANSITIONING
CVRP
9/100
Recession Prob.
CRAI
59/100
Risk Appetite
Yield Curve
0.38%
10Y − 2Y
Real Rates
2.15%
10Y TIPS

Positioning Implications

  • ·CVRP at 9: low recession probability — growth-oriented positioning supported
  • ·CRAI at 59: risk appetite neutral — no strong directional bias
  • ·Yield curve flat (0.38%): transition signal — positioning shifts typically follow
  • ·Real rates at 2.15%: restrictive — headwind for gold and growth stocks

Signal Timeline

2026-04-07PEAKGold net speculative positioning reached CROWDED SHORT extreme (10th- percentile)

Methodology

Positioning data sourced from CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy Futures-Only report), published weekly. Percentile ranks computed against 52-week rolling history. Conviction labels reflect positioning extremes: ≥90th or ≤10th percentile = extreme, ≥75th or ≤25th = crowded.

Divergence alerts are computed algorithmically using z-score analysis across correlated market pairs and CFTC positioning vs price action. No editorial judgment or AI-generated narratives are used on this page.

Regime context uses Convex Intelligence Indices (CVRP, CRAI, CNLI) plus yield curve and real rates data from FRED.

Full methodology →