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Daily Recap · Geopolitical

Trump pauses tariffs, S&P 500 rallies 9.5% in largest single-day gain since 2008

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Market Closes

AssetCloseChange
S&P 500 (SPY)548.62+9.52%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)464.67+12.02%
20Y+ Treasury (TLT)88.22-2.65%
Gold3080.00+3.30%
VIX33.62-27.56%

What Happened

The S&P 500 rallied 9.52% on April 9 2025, the largest single-day gain since October 13 2008 (+11.58%), after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China. The announcement came at 1:18 PM ET via social media post. China tariffs were simultaneously raised to 125%. The Nasdaq 100 gained 12.02%, its second largest single-day gain on record.

Market breadth was extreme: 99% of S&P 500 members gained, with the equal-weighted index gaining 9.1%. Volatility strategies reversed the forced selling of the prior three sessions, and short squeezes contributed to amplified gains in small caps (Russell 2000 +8.7%) and high-volatility names. The VIX fell 27.56% to 33.62, still elevated but reflecting the removal of acute tail risk.

The reversal was only partial. By April 9 close, the S&P 500 at 548.62 remained 2.2% below the pre-Liberation Day level of 561.89. But the session demonstrated the Trump administration's willingness to reverse course on tariff severity when markets signaled stress. The "Trump put" framework that characterized the first term appeared intact, though the 125% China tariff rate signaled that US-China trade was structurally repriced.

Lessons

  • ·Policy reversals produce equally violent rallies as initial shocks
  • ·Single-day moves of 9%+ indicate forced short-covering plus fundamental repricing
  • ·The "Trump put" on market stress remained operational
  • ·Partial reversals leave permanent risk premiums in affected sectors

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