10Y Breakeven Inflation in 2015
10Y Breakeven Inflation opened 2015 at 1.71% and closed at 1.54%, a -9.94% move for the year. The high of 1.94% was reached on April 30, and the low of 1.39% on September 28.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.71% | 1.65% | 1.71% | 1.54% | -3.51% |
| Feb | 1.65% | 1.83% | 1.83% | 1.65% | +10.91% |
| Mar | 1.83% | 1.76% | 1.87% | 1.64% | -3.83% |
| Apr | 1.80% | 1.94% | 1.94% | 1.80% | +7.78% |
| May | 1.94% | 1.80% | 1.94% | 1.80% | -7.22% |
| Jun | 1.80% | 1.87% | 1.92% | 1.80% | +3.89% |
| Jul | 1.89% | 1.74% | 1.91% | 1.73% | -7.94% |
| Aug | 1.70% | 1.63% | 1.71% | 1.49% | -4.12% |
| Sep | 1.57% | 1.41% | 1.59% | 1.39% | -10.19% |
| Oct | 1.46% | 1.53% | 1.58% | 1.45% | +4.79% |
| Nov | 1.55% | 1.59% | 1.62% | 1.51% | +2.58% |
| Dec | 1.57% | 1.54% | 1.61% | 1.45% | -1.91% |
Events During 2015
The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed.
Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments.
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