US Missile Strikes on Tehran Escalate Direct Military Confrontation with Iran

WHAT HAPPENED US missile strikes targeted Tehran overnight, reportedly eliminating multiple Iranian leadership figures according to Trump administration claims. The attacks represent the most direct US military action against Iranian soil since the 1979 revolution, marking significant escalation beyond proxy confrontations in Iraq and Syria.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: direct conflict with Iran triggers Strait of Hormuz threat assessment. The causal chain runs Tehran strikes → Iranian retaliation capability against Persian Gulf infrastructure → insurance markets reprice war risk premiums → oil futures spike on 18% of global supply at risk. Secondary transmission through regional oil facilities (Saudi Aramco, UAE ports) as Iran's asymmetric response doctrine targets allied energy infrastructure.

Brent: immediate 15-20% spike justified by Hormuz transit risk (current $97 suggests $20+ geo premium). WTI: smaller move due to US energy independence but sympathetic to global pricing. Gold: safe-haven bid extends recent strength above $4,680. Defence contractors (RTX, LMT, NOC): direct beneficiaries. Regional energy infrastructure REITs vulnerable. USO: tracks crude higher with amplified volatility. TLT: flight-to-quality supports current $86.65 level despite rate environment.

HIGH. Iran's doctrine explicitly includes Hormuz closure as retaliation for direct attacks on leadership. Insurance markets will immediately reprice Persian Gulf transit risk, mechanically driving energy premiums regardless of actual supply disruption.

Iranian statements on Hormuz closure. Lloyd's of London war risk committee emergency meeting. US Fifth Fleet deployment announcements. Saudi/UAE diplomatic positioning on US action.