US-Israeli strikes on Iran threaten Strait of Hormuz oil transit security.

WHAT HAPPENED US-Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian military installations as a self-imposed Trump administration deadline for Iran to cease regional proxy activities expired. The strikes occurred near critical petroleum infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region, raising immediate concerns about Strait of Hormuz transit security. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened retaliation against shipping in the waterway, which handles 21% of global petroleum transit.

CHOKE-SHIPPING-001 activates: military escalation near critical chokepoint creates immediate insurance repricing and routing decisions. The causal chain runs strike threat → war risk premium escalation → vessel operators delay or reroute transits → effective tanker supply contracts → spot charter rates spike. Secondary channel: even without physical closure, sustained threat perception suppresses traffic volumes as insurers require additional premiums of $200,000-500,000 per Hormuz transit.

Brent crude (currently $99.13, Friday close): expect 8-15% gap higher on Monday open via supply-risk premium. VLCC tanker rates: immediate spike as operators demand risk compensation. Energy majors (XOM, CVX): beneficiaries of inventory revaluation. European refiners: margin compression from higher crude input costs. Bitcoin ($77,594): modest haven bid as traditional markets remain closed. USO: tracking vehicle for crude exposure, likely gaps higher with underlying.

HIGH. Hormuz's strategic importance is quantifiable (21% global petroleum), and insurance markets reprice immediately upon conflict escalation. Even temporary disruption expectations create sustained freight cost increases.

JWC listed area designation for Persian Gulf. Iranian closure of Hormuz shipping lanes. US 5th Fleet naval response deployment. OPEC+ emergency meeting announcement.