US-Israeli strikes kill Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in Damascus, triggering retaliation threats.

WHAT HAPPENED US-Israeli joint strikes targeted senior Iranian officials in Damascus, killing Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders overseeing regional proxy operations. The strikes represent the most direct escalation in US-Iranian tensions since the Soleimani assassination, with Iran's Supreme Leader vowing "severe retaliation" against American and Israeli assets.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: direct military action against Iranian leadership creates acute retaliation risk against regional energy infrastructure. The causal chain runs strike escalation → Iranian threat to Strait of Hormuz chokepoint (20% of global oil transit) → insurance markets reprice war risk → oil futures gap higher on supply disruption premium. Secondary channel: Iranian proxy activation threatens Saudi Aramco facilities and UAE export terminals.

Brent crude: expect 8-15% gap higher Monday open from current $101.29, targeting $115+ on supply-risk premium. WTI: parallel move from $95.42 toward $105-110 range. VIX: likely spike from current 17.19 toward 25+ on geopolitical stress. Defence contractors (LMT, RTX): direct beneficiaries. Regional energy infrastructure plays (Saudi Aramco ADRs, UAE sovereign bonds): vulnerable to proxy retaliation. Gold: haven bid above current $4,730 toward $4,900.

HIGH. Iran's retaliation doctrine is well-established and asymmetric, targeting economic infrastructure over direct military confrontation. The Strait of Hormuz represents Iran's primary leverage point, and proxy networks provide plausible deniability for infrastructure attacks.

Iranian military deployment to Strait of Hormuz. US Fifth Fleet alert status changes. Insurance market JWC listings for Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia diplomatic signals on production capacity protection.