US airstrikes on Iran escalate Hormuz Strait disruption risk for global oil markets.

WHAT HAPPENED US airstrikes on Iranian territory killed 13 civilians in an unspecified Iranian city, escalating military confrontation near a "Trump Hormuz deadline." The strikes represent direct kinetic action against Iranian soil, heightening risks to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil transits daily.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: military action near critical energy infrastructure triggers insurance repricing and precautionary shipping behaviour. The causal chain runs direct strikes on Iran → heightened Hormuz closure probability → war risk insurance surcharges for tankers transiting the strait → spot tanker rates spike as vessels divert via Cape of Good Hope (adding 14-21 days transit time) → crude oil futures reprice upward on supply disruption risk.

Brent crude: bid 4-7% on geopolitical risk premium, currently trading $89.93 versus FRED's $123.28 reference (significant data discrepancy suggests volatility). WTI: similar magnitude move from $86.36. Front-month Brent-WTI spread: likely widens as European refiners face higher transport costs. Tanker equities (Frontline, DHT Holdings): direct beneficiaries of spiking day rates. VIX: modest uptick from current 18.9 on broader risk-off sentiment.

MEDIUM. Direct strikes represent clear escalation, but Hormuz closure requires sustained Iranian retaliation capability. Insurance markets reprice immediately on proximity risk, but sustained premium requires credible closure threat or actual maritime incidents.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard statements on Hormuz. Lloyd's of London war risk committee emergency meetings. Tanker tracking data showing diversions. US Fifth Fleet deployment announcements. Oil inventory release coordination among IEA members.