Trump threatens Iranian oil infrastructure; markets reassess Strait of Hormuz supply risk.

WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued direct threats against Iranian energy infrastructure in response to escalating regional tensions, marking a shift from economic sanctions to kinetic military options. Iran controls approximately 5% of global crude production and oversees transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 21% of seaborne oil flows.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: infrastructure threats trigger immediate insurance repricing and supply risk assessment. The causal chain runs credible strike threat → war risk insurance premiums spike for Persian Gulf tankers → shipping companies demand force majeure protection → crude futures reprice upward on supply disruption probability. Secondary channel: Strait of Hormuz chokepoint concerns force precautionary inventory building by importers, amplifying price momentum.

Brent crude: strong bid above current $106.09, targeting $115-120 on geopolitical premium expansion. WTI: follows Brent higher from $96.78, though Permian oversupply caps relative gains. Energy majors (XOM, CVX): direct beneficiaries of higher crude pricing. VIX: likely rises from current 19.31 toward 25+ on broader risk-off sentiment. TankerCo names (FRO, EURN): benefit from spiking day rates as tonnage avoids Gulf. Gold: additional safe-haven bid above $4,712/oz.

MEDIUM. Trump's track record shows credible follow-through on military threats, and Iran's infrastructure concentration creates genuine supply vulnerability. However, market pricing at $106 Brent already reflects significant geopolitical premium, limiting upside unless strikes materialise.

US military asset deployment to Gulf region. Iranian Revolutionary Guard counter-threats. Insurance market JWC area designations. Chinese diplomatic intervention. Any Iranian pre-emptive Strait closure announcements.