Israel strikes Iranian gas field as ceasefire negotiations collapse, escalating regional conflict.

WHAT HAPPENED Israeli military forces struck an Iranian natural gas processing facility, targeting energy infrastructure as ceasefire negotiations collapsed. The attack directly hit production infrastructure at a field contributing to Iran's ~3% global crude and condensate output. The timing coincides with failed diplomatic efforts, signalling sustained conflict escalation rather than tactical posturing.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: kinetic strikes on energy infrastructure trigger immediate geopolitical risk repricing. The causal chain runs infrastructure attack → war risk insurance premiums spike for Persian Gulf transits → crude oil futures reprice upward on supply threat → regional energy security concerns spread to broader commodity complex. Secondary transmission via flight-to-quality flows into safe-haven assets as Middle East escalation risk materialises.

Brent crude: bid 3-5% on supply disruption fears, currently trading $107.41 with scope for $110+ if escalation continues. WTI: sympathy move higher from $99.94. Persian Gulf shipping rates: immediate spike on war risk premiums. GLD: beneficiary at $418.27 as Middle East tensions drive safe-haven demand. TLT: modest bid as geopolitical uncertainty supports duration. Short regional energy equities with Persian Gulf exposure. Long defence contractors on conflict escalation.

MEDIUM. Infrastructure strikes represent clear escalation, but Iran's production capacity can absorb isolated facility damage. Market impact depends on follow-through attacks rather than single-incident repricing.

Iranian retaliation against Israeli or regional energy infrastructure. Insurance market response—JWC Red Sea/Persian Gulf listing changes. Oil inventory draws accelerating. US diplomatic intervention signals or military deployment announcements.