Iranian ballistic missiles strike Haifa; direct attack escalates Israel-Iran conflict tensions.

WHAT HAPPENED Iranian ballistic missiles struck the Israeli city of Haifa, marking the first direct Iranian kinetic attack on Israeli urban centres. The strike represents a material escalation from weeks of proxy exchanges, with four confirmed casualties. Israel's security cabinet convened for emergency session, signalling potential retaliation against Iranian energy infrastructure.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: direct state conflict near critical energy chokepoints triggers insurance repricing and supply-risk assessment. The causal chain runs Iranian escalation → Israeli retaliation probability against Kharg Island or Strait of Hormuz → war risk insurance spikes for Persian Gulf tanker traffic → oil futures reprice upward on supply disruption premium. Secondary channel: 20% of global oil transit through Hormuz creates systemic pricing impact even without actual closure.

Brent crude: bid 3-5% on Hormuz closure premium, already elevated at $107.63 versus historical $90-95 range. WTI futures: sympathy move, currently $101.27 reflects partial risk pricing. Gold: safe-haven bid targeting $4,700/oz from current $4,626.70. TLT: flight-to-quality demand despite current 85.615 level. VIX: expect spike from subdued 16.99 as geopolitical uncertainty materialises. Short Israeli equities (EIS ETF), long defence contractors. European energy utilities benefit from higher pricing power.

HIGH. Direct Iranian strikes cross established red lines, making Israeli infrastructure retaliation highly probable. Historical precedent shows Persian Gulf tensions immediately transmit to oil premiums regardless of actual disruption.

Israeli military response within 72 hours. Hormuz shipping delays or insurance notifications. Iranian threats against Gulf infrastructure. US Fifth Fleet positioning changes.