Retail Sales (Ex-Food Services) vs Real Consumer Spending
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
RSXFS covers goods retail only while PCE includes services. When retail sales grow faster than PCE, goods consumption is driving the cycle, typical of early-reopening phases. When PCE outpaces retail sales, services spending dominates, a normal mid-cycle pattern and a sign that goods-driven pandemic effects have faded.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) is advance retail sales excluding food services, consumer spending momentum, and Real Personal Consumption is inflation-adjusted consumer spending, ~70% of US GDP. Factor exposures embedded inside Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption drive their relative performance, with growth-value, large-small, and domestic-international all surfacing in the spread. Structural changes inside Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) or Real Personal Consumption, such as index reconstitution or methodology shifts, can break historical spread relationships in discrete jumps.
In bull markets the more aggressive peer between Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption typically leads, while bear markets shift leadership toward the more defensive peer. Flows matter for the Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)-Real Personal Consumption relationship: when one peer attracts more capital, it outperforms on demand pressure that tends to mean-reverts. Interest rate cycles drive Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) versus Real Personal Consumption relative performance through discount-rate sensitivity, with longer-duration exposures suffering more when rates rise.
Mid-cycle stretches see the Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)-Real Personal Consumption spread compress as macro volatility stays low and factor returns normalize. Inside the Economic Activity universe, Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption represent different flavors of the same underlying exposure.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption?+
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) typically lead Real Personal Consumption?+
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) tends to lead Real Personal Consumption during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) precede corresponding moves in Real Personal Consumption by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)-Real Personal Consumption relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption?+
Divergence between Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) or Real Personal Consumption.
Is Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) a hedge for Real Personal Consumption?+
Peers like Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and Real Personal Consumption do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)-Real Personal Consumption pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.