New Vehicles CPI vs Core CPI
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
New-vehicle inflation surged ahead of core during chip shortages (2021-2022), then deflated sharply as inventory normalized. When new-vehicle CPI leads core up, supply bottlenecks are feeding core. When new-vehicle CPI deflates while core stays sticky, goods disinflation is offset by services stickiness, and the Fed watches core-services-ex-shelter more than vehicles.
Cross-Asset Analysis
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks measures used vehicle price index, volatile goods component that drove 2021-22 inflation, while Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) measures CPI excluding food and energy, less volatile measure of underlying inflation; tracking the two side by side turns that distinction into a tradable signal for the peer pair relationship. In bull markets the more aggressive peer between CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) typically leads, while bear markets shift leadership toward the more defensive peer. The CPI: Used Cars & Trucks-Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) spread captures the tilt between two variants of the same asset: one may be more defensive, one more cyclical.
Factor tilts expressed through the CPI: Used Cars & Trucks-Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) selection allow managers to adjust style exposure without changing their overall asset allocation. Inside the Inflation universe, CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) represent different flavors of the same underlying exposure. A peer comparison like CPI: Used Cars & Trucks versus Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) strips out the common-factor beta and leaves behind the differences in sector mix, capitalization, style, or geography.
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) look similar at a glance, but the embedded factor tilts between them matter a great deal over time. CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) occupy the same asset class, and the relative performance between them isolates the specific factor that distinguishes one from the other.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)?+
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does CPI: Used Cars & Trucks typically lead Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)?+
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks tends to lead Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in CPI: Used Cars & Trucks precede corresponding moves in Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the CPI: Used Cars & Trucks-Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)?+
Divergence between CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in CPI: Used Cars & Trucks or Core CPI (ex Food/Energy).
Is CPI: Used Cars & Trucks a hedge for Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)?+
Peers like CPI: Used Cars & Trucks and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the CPI: Used Cars & Trucks-Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.