Average Weekly Hours vs S&P 500: Correlation Analysis
Pearson correlation of daily returns for Avg Weekly Hours (Private) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Rolling windows, yearly breakdown, regression beta, and divergence analysis. Data window spans to (36 aligned observations).
What the Number Means
With a correlation of -0.14, Avg Weekly Hours (Private) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are essentially uncorrelated at daily frequency. Either the relationship operates at a different time horizon or the shared driver has been dominated by idiosyncratic noise during the observation window.
Recent vs Long-Run Behavior
Recent correlation tracks the long-run relationship closely. No meaningful divergence. The historical pattern between Avg Weekly Hours (Private) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is intact and should continue to serve as a reasonable baseline for positioning.
Statistical Details (1-Year Window)
| Pearson Correlation (r) | -0.141 |
| R-Squared (r²) | 0.020 |
| Beta (Avg Weekly Hours (Private) vs S&P 500 ETF (SPY)) | -0.006 |
| Daily Volatility σ(Avg Weekly Hours (Private)) | 0.23% |
| Daily Volatility σ(S&P 500 ETF (SPY)) | 5.11% |
| Observations | 36 |
Correlation measures directional co-movement; R² quantifies the fraction of variance explained by the linear relationship. Beta is the slope coefficient from regressing Avg Weekly Hours (Private) returns on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) returns. A beta above 1 means the first asset amplifies moves of the second.
Year-by-Year Correlation
| Year | Correlation | Strength | Observations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.351 | Weak positive | 6 |
| 2024 | -0.560 | Moderate negative | 8 |
| 2023 | +0.232 | Weak positive | 8 |
| 2022 | -0.585 | Moderate negative | 9 |
| 2021 | +0.433 | Moderate positive | 5 |
Year-by-year correlation reveals how the relationship has held up across different macro regimes. Sharp year-over-year swings in correlation often mark the transition between stress and calm periods.
Methodology
Correlations are computed on daily log-adjacent returns for Avg Weekly Hours (Private) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY), aligned on shared trading dates. We use the Pearson product-moment coefficient, which measures the linear relationship between two return series.
Windows are the most recent N observations for 30D, 90D, and 1Y (252 trading days); the 5Y figure uses all aligned data up to 1,260 observations. Beta is the OLS slope from regressing the first series on the second. Data updates daily with a 24-hour revalidation cadence.
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Correlation is not causation and backward-looking statistics can fail when regimes shift. Positions sized on historical correlation assumptions should be stress-tested against scenarios where the relationship breaks. For informational purposes only.