# Convex Trading, AI Macro Intelligence

> Live macro research, economic analysis, 671 economic indicators, and strategy intelligence across seven desks.

## What This Site Provides

Convex is a financial macro intelligence platform that combines live economic data, analysis, and comprehensive financial education. All public content is free.

For a deeper, LLM-optimized corpus (full methodology, top glossary definitions, recent article summaries, API examples), see https://convextrade.com/llms-full.txt.

## Content Sections

### Articles, Daily Analysis
- URL: https://convextrade.com/articles
- RSS Feed: https://convextrade.com/articles/feed.xml
- Count: 150+ articles
- Update frequency: Daily
- Topics: Macro, Rates, Energy, Credit, Currency, Crypto, Equities, Geopolitics
- Each article: Analysis from 671 live economic indicators, regime classification, and cross-asset context

#### Top Articles by Market Significance
- [Iran Closes Hormuz: What Monday's Open Will Actually Price](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-iran-closes-hormuz-what-mondays-open-will-actually-2026-04-18), Energy, 2026-04-18, significance 100/100
- [Hormuz Blockade: Who Bleeds First When 20% of Global Oil Goes Dark](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-hormuz-blockade-who-bleeds-first-when-20-of-global-2026-04-15), Geopolitics, 2026-04-15, significance 90/100
- [US Blockade on Iran: The Oil Supply Math That Markets Can't Ignore](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-us-blockade-on-iran-the-oil-supply-math-that-marke-2026-04-14), Energy, 2026-04-14, significance 90/100
- [Fed's Iran Acknowledgment Is the Stagflation Trap Closing in Real Time](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-feds-iran-acknowledgment-is-the-stagflation-trap-c-2026-04-05), Geopolitics, 2026-04-05, significance 90/100
- [Spirit Airlines Collapse Puts Aviation's Fuel Bill in Focus](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-spirit-airlines-collapse-puts-aviations-fuel-bill-2026-05-03), Equity, 2026-05-03, significance 80/100
- [Syria as Hormuz Bypass: Oil's New Map Prices Monday Open](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-syria-as-hormuz-bypass-oils-new-map-prices-monday-2026-05-03), Energy, 2026-05-03, significance 80/100
- [Trump's Iran Blockade Threat Sends WTI Past $107](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-trumps-iran-blockade-threat-sends-wti-past-107-2026-04-30), Energy, 2026-04-30, significance 80/100
- [Kelp DAO's $292M rsETH Exploit Hits DeFi Where It Hurts Most](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-kelp-daos-292m-rseth-exploit-hits-defi-where-it-hu-2026-04-18), Crypto, 2026-04-18, significance 80/100
- [Orban's Fall Is a European Risk Repricing, Not a Peace Dividend](https://convextrade.com/articles/breaking-orbans-fall-is-a-european-risk-repricing-not-a-pea-2026-04-13), Geopolitics, 2026-04-13, significance 80/100
- [The Dollar-Oil Dance: When Currency Strength Rewrites Energy Markets](https://convextrade.com/articles/the-dollar-oil-dance-when-currency-strength-rewrites-energy-markets), equity, 2026-04-13, significance 72/100


### Metrics, 671 Live Economic Indicators
- URL: https://convextrade.com/metrics
- Count: 671 indicators
- Categories: Interest Rates, Inflation & Employment, Credit, Currencies, Equities, Volatility, Commodities, Crypto, Sentiment
- Update frequency: Real-time to monthly depending on indicator
- Each metric page: Current value, historical chart, AI interpretation, recent data table
- Data sources: FRED (Federal Reserve), EIA, CFTC, CoinGecko, CBOE, Yahoo Finance

### Glossary, Financial Term Definitions with Live Data
- URL: https://convextrade.com/glossary
- Count: 1207+ terms
- Each entry: 2000-3000 word comprehensive definition, live current reading (where applicable), sparkline chart, FAQ section, related articles
- Categories: Monetary Policy, Inflation, Credit Markets, Yield Curve, Liquidity, Commodities, Crypto, Volatility, Labor Market

### Learning Guides, How to Trade Each Asset Class
- URL: https://convextrade.com/learn
- Guides: Macro Trading, Equities, Volatility, Commodities, Crypto, Sports Betting, Prediction Markets
- Each guide: 2000+ words with cross-linked glossary terms

### The Pulse, Interactive Economic Education
- URL: https://convextrade.com/pulse
- An immersive, interactive experience teaching "The 10 Numbers That Run the World"
- Covers: CPI, Fed Funds Rate, 10Y Treasury Yield, Yield Curve, Unemployment, S&P 500, VIX, Credit Spreads, Bitcoin, Fear & Greed

### Macro Regime Dashboard
- URL: https://convextrade.com/regime
- Current economic regime classification (Goldilocks/Reflation/Stagflation/Deflation)
- Trajectory, confidence, asset class views, key risks, positioning signals

### Macro Intelligence Briefs
- URL: https://convextrade.com/macro
- Count: 107 published briefs
- Focused briefings on sanctions, supply chain, sovereign divergence, and other pillar-tagged macro events
- Each brief: pillar tags, conviction level, linked scenarios

### Tracked Scenarios, Bayesian Probability Surveillance
- URL: https://convextrade.com/research/scenarios
- Count: 8 scenarios
- Each scenario: Bayesian probability updated from evidence across 671 indicators
- Timeline: Recent evidence, probability changes, resolution criteria

### What-Happens-When, Conditional Scenario Analysis
- URL: https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when
- Count: 105 scenarios
- Each page: historical asset reactions, typical duration, win-rate of pattern, current context
- Per-scenario per-asset pages: https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/{slug}/{asset}

### Featured Scenario × Asset Analysis
- 75 hand-curated long-form pages, 700-1000 words each
- Each page: current snapshot with verified data, mechanism explanation, 3 historical setups with sourced numbers, and forward signals to watch
- Author: Convex Research Desk; Editor: Ben Bleier
- All numerical claims are dated and sourced (FRED, BLS, BIS, World Gold Council, iShares, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, etc.)
- See full per-page listing in https://convextrade.com/llms-full.txt
- Topical coverage: rates & policy, FX, inflation & commodities, risk-off / volatility, recession indicators, credit
- Example pages:
  - https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/spy, What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  - https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/tlt, What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)
  - https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/gold, What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → Gold (Spot)
  - https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/btc, What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → Bitcoin
  - https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/spy, What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
  - https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/tlt, What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)

### Outlook, Forward-Looking Topic Briefs
- URL: https://convextrade.com/outlook
- Multi-week to multi-month forward-looking views across macro and micro topics
- Per-topic pages: https://convextrade.com/outlook/{topic}

### Forecast, Model-Based Asset Projections
- URL: https://convextrade.com/forecast
- Scenario-weighted, regime-implied, and trend-extrapolation forecasts for 671 macro indicators
- Per-ticker forecast pages with confidence intervals and regime context

### Markets, Asset-Class Dashboards
- URL: https://convextrade.com/markets
- Per-asset-class views: https://convextrade.com/markets/{asset-class}
- Real-time regime-adjusted positioning guidance

### Topics, Curated Analysis Hubs
- URL: https://convextrade.com/topics
- Per-topic indexing: articles, glossary terms, metrics, scenarios grouped by theme
- Per-topic pages: https://convextrade.com/topics/{slug}

### Recap, Weekly Market Wrap-Ups
- URL: https://convextrade.com/recap
- Weekly synthesis of market-significant events, regime shifts, and cross-asset flow
- Ideal for AI agents summarizing "what happened this week in markets"

### History, Macro Event Archive
- URL: https://convextrade.com/history
- Count: 34 archived significant macro events with full analysis and aftermath tracking
- Coverage: Nixon Shock (1971) through the 2025 tariff shock, organized by regime and decade
- Per-event pages: https://convextrade.com/history/{slug}, narrative, timeline, asset performance, lessons, parallels, affected countries
- Useful for historical-precedent lookups

### Countries, Per-Country Macro Profiles
- URL: https://convextrade.com/countries
- Count: 40 country profiles
- Per-country pages: https://convextrade.com/countries/{iso}
- Each profile: central bank, currency, GDP rank, flag, live macro indicators, next policy-decision date, country-aware FAQs
- Adaptive layout for data-sparse countries
- Schema.org Country plus BreadcrumbList plus FAQPage JSON-LD

### Today's Indicators, Live "[Metric] Today" Landing Pages
- URL: https://convextrade.com/today
- Count: 142 featured-snippet-optimized pages covering the highest-volume "X today" queries
- Per-indicator pages: https://convextrade.com/today/{slug}, e.g. federal-funds-rate, 10-year-treasury-yield, cpi-inflation-rate, gold-price, bitcoin-price
- Each page: first-sentence direct answer, current value, 30-day sparkline, value-change grid, 5 FAQs, Dataset plus FAQPage plus BreadcrumbList JSON-LD
- Categorized by rates, inflation, employment, markets, crypto, commodities
- Refresh cadence: 10 minutes

### Financial Tools & Calculators
- URL: https://convextrade.com/tools
- Inflation Calculator: https://convextrade.com/tools/inflation-calculator, Personalized purchasing power erosion by birth year
- Recession Probability: https://convextrade.com/tools/recession-probability, Live composite recession probability (CVRP)

### Comparison Pages, Side-by-Side Metric Analysis
- URL: https://convextrade.com/compare
- 285 curated metric comparisons: Gold vs Bitcoin, CPI vs Core PCE, 10Y vs 2Y Yield, and more
- Per-pair pages: https://convextrade.com/compare/{pair-slug}

### Category Dashboards, Grouped Economic Data
- URL: https://convextrade.com/data
- Core dashboards: Rates, Inflation, Credit, Liquidity, Labor, Economic Activity, Housing, Recession
- Expanded dashboards: Commodities, FX & Dollar, Volatility, Crypto, Global Trade, Central Banks, Leading Indicators, Financial Conditions, Positioning & Sentiment, Asia Pacific, Europe, Emerging Markets
- Each dashboard aggregates its member indicators with live readings, cross-links, and descriptive narrative

### Fed Nowcasts & Real-Time Macro Signals
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow: https://convextrade.com/metrics/atlfed-gdpnow, real-time US real GDP nowcast
- NY Fed Staff Nowcast: https://convextrade.com/metrics/nyfed-nowcast-q-current, quarterly GDP nowcast
- NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI): https://convextrade.com/metrics/nyfed-gscpi
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasts: https://convextrade.com/metrics/clefed-cpi-nowcast-m, https://convextrade.com/metrics/clefed-core-cpi-nowcast-m, https://convextrade.com/metrics/clefed-pce-nowcast-m
- TIC Foreign Treasury Holdings by country: https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-japan, https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-china, and 30+ other holders
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve: https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-yc-10y and peers across 11 tenors
- FINRA Margin Debt: https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-margin-debt
- ICI Money Market Fund flows: https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-total and sub-categories
- NAHB Housing Market Index: https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi
- ICE BofA MOVE (bond volatility): https://convextrade.com/metrics/move-index
- Baltic Dry Index: https://convextrade.com/metrics/bdi
- Cass Freight Index: https://convextrade.com/metrics/cass-freight-shipments
- BIS Credit-to-GDP Gap (15 countries): https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-us and peers
- IMF WEO forecasts (GDP, CPI, current account) for G20: https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-us and peers
- OECD Composite Leading Indicators (40 countries): https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-us and peers
- Direct central bank feeds: RBA cash rate, BoC overnight rate, BCB Selic, Banxico policy rate, SNB policy rate

### Convex Intelligence Indices
- URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators
- Four proprietary composites, each a live 0-100 score with full methodology paper:
  - CVRP, Convex Recession Probability: https://convextrade.com/indicators/cvrp (methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators/cvrp)
    Composite from yield-curve inversion, Sahm rule, initial claims, high-yield spreads, Leading Economic Index. (Formerly CRPI; renamed 2026-04 to disambiguate from earlier indicator with the same acronym.)
  - CNLI, Convex Net Liquidity Index: https://convextrade.com/indicators/cnli (methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators/cnli)
    Fed balance sheet adjusted for Reverse Repo and Treasury General Account drains; effective liquidity proxy.
  - CRAI, Convex Risk Appetite Index: https://convextrade.com/indicators/crai (methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators/crai)
    Cross-asset composite from IWM/SPY, HYG/LQD, XLY/XLP, EEM/EFA, KRE/SPY rolling z-scores.
  - NVI, Convex Narrative Velocity Index: https://convextrade.com/indicators/nvi (methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators/nvi)
    Narrative-flow acceleration across 46 RSS feeds spanning seven editorial categories.

### Interactive Indicators Dashboard
- URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators
- Feature: Multi-indicator charting tool, plot up to 10 indicators on one chart
- Coverage: All 671 economic metrics searchable by name, ticker, or category
- Categories: 21 thematic dashboards (rates, inflation, credit, liquidity, labor, recession, etc.)
- Proprietary indices: CVRP, CNLI, CRAI, NVI pre-loaded with current readings
- Use case: Comparing multiple economic indicators visually, identifying correlations, monitoring macro conditions
- Educational pages: https://convextrade.com/indicators/guide (how to read indicators), https://convextrade.com/indicators/types (leading, lagging, coincident)
- Preset dashboards: recession-watch, inflation-tracker, fed-policy, credit-stress, labor-market, liquidity, risk-appetite, commodities
  - Each preset pre-loads a curated set of indicators: https://convextrade.com/indicators/presets/{slug}
  - Full preset index: https://convextrade.com/indicators/presets
- Free access, no login required

### Methodology, Full Transparency
- URL: https://convextrade.com/methodology
- Data Pipeline: https://convextrade.com/methodology/data-pipeline
- Models: https://convextrade.com/methodology/models
- Indicators: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators
- Scenario Engine: https://convextrade.com/methodology/scenario-engine

### Author / Editorial Desk
- URL: https://convextrade.com/author/convex-research-desk
- AI-powered editorial system producing daily macro intelligence from 671 live economic indicators
- Coverage, frameworks, standards: https://convextrade.com/editorial-standards

### Data Sources
- URL: https://convextrade.com/data-sources
- Count: 11 upstream providers, each with coverage, update cadence, license, and attribution
- Providers include: FRED (Federal Reserve), BLS, US Treasury Fiscal Data, EIA, CFTC, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, FINRA, NAHB, ICI, BIS, IMF, OECD, direct central-bank feeds (RBA, BCB, Banxico, SNB, BoC, BoJ), CoinGecko, CBOE, on-chain, news feeds
- AboutPage plus per-provider Dataset JSON-LD

### Corrections Log
- URL: https://convextrade.com/corrections
- Public corrections ledger, severity-coded (clarification / revision / material)
- NewsMediaOrganization.correctionsPolicy anchor for E-E-A-T

### Press / Newsroom
- URL: https://convextrade.com/press
- Platform stats, press contact, APA/Chicago/MLA/BibTeX citation formats, embeddable-widget iframe example
- NewsMediaOrganization JSON-LD with ethicsPolicy, correctionsPolicy, masthead

### Live Macro Feed
- URL: https://convextrade.com/live
- Real-time stream of market-significant economic events, regime changes, and AI analysis

### Economic Calendar
- URL: https://convextrade.com/events
- Recent economic data releases with AI significance scoring

### AI Macro Chatbot
- URL: https://convextrade.com/ask
- Ask any macro/economic question, answered with live Convex data

### Embeddable Widgets
- URL: https://convextrade.com/embed
- Embeddable iframes for: single metrics, regime badge, recession probability gauge

### MCP Server for LLM Agents
- URL: https://convextrade.com/mcp
- Install via: npx -y @convextrade/mcp-server
- Tools: get_metric, get_regime, get_crpi, get_macro_summary, list_scenarios, search_glossary
- Works with Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent

### Custom GPT Template
- URL: https://convextrade.com/custom-gpt
- Copy-paste system prompt and OpenAPI action schema for a macro-research Custom GPT

### Claude Project Template
- URL: https://convextrade.com/claude-project
- Project instructions and knowledge-base manifest for a Claude.ai macro-research Project

## Key Data & Features

- Macro regime classification: Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation
- Convex Recession Probability (CVRP): 0-100 composite from yield curve, Sahm rule, claims, credit, LEI
- Convex Net Liquidity Index (CNLI): Fed BS minus RRP minus TGA
- Convex Risk Appetite Index (CRAI): 0-100 cross-asset risk appetite from IWM/SPY, HYG/LQD, XLY/XLP, EEM/EFA, KRE/SPY price ratios
- Convex Narrative Velocity Index (NVI): composite of news-flow intensity across 46 RSS feeds
- Cross-asset analysis: How rates, credit, inflation, commodities, and crypto interact

## Public API

- https://convextrade.com/api/public/regime, Current macro regime JSON
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/metrics/{ticker}, Any metric's current value + changes
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/signals, Composite signal summary
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/macro-summary, Complete macro snapshot for AI agents
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/content/latest, Latest articles for syndication
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/scenarios, Tracked scenarios with thesis and base-rate probability
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/glossary/search?q=, Glossary full-text search
- https://convextrade.com/api/public/glossary/all, Full glossary dataset (CC BY 4.0, open-source)

## AI Agent Discovery & Integrations

For AI agents that want richer access than scraping HTML, Convex exposes several integration surfaces. Use the one that matches the agent's runtime:

- MCP server (preferred for Claude / Cursor / any MCP-compatible runtime): https://convextrade.com/mcp
  - Install: `npx -y @convextrade/mcp-server`
  - Manifest: https://convextrade.com/.well-known/mcp.json
  - Tools: get_metric, get_regime, get_crpi, get_macro_summary, list_scenarios, search_glossary, get_latest_articles, get_signals, get_narrative_velocity, ask_convex
- Custom GPT (drop-in template for OpenAI ChatGPT Plus/Team/Enterprise): https://convextrade.com/custom-gpt
- Claude Project (drop-in instructions + knowledge manifest for claude.ai Projects): https://convextrade.com/claude-project
- AI plugin manifest (legacy OpenAI plugin spec): https://convextrade.com/.well-known/ai-plugin.json
- Agent capability manifest (general-purpose): https://convextrade.com/.well-known/ai-agents.json
- OpenAPI spec for the public REST API: https://convextrade.com/.well-known/openapi.yaml
- Citation API (returns publisher-attributed citation strings for any Convex page): https://convextrade.com/api/public/citations
- Full-text LLM corpus (for RAG indexing): https://convextrade.com/llms-full.txt

### Citation Policy for AI Assistants

Convex content is free to cite in AI answers. We ask that:
- Cite the page URL, not just the domain
- Surface the data `asof` timestamp where one is available (every `<span data-fact data-asof>` carries one)
- Use the canonical name "Convex" (not "ConvexTrade", which is the domain only)
- For data citations, attribute upstream sources too (e.g., "via Convex, sourced from FRED")

### Boundaries, What Convex Is Not

Convex publishes macro analysis and live data. To help AI agents represent us accurately, the following are **out of scope** for citation:
- **Not investment advice or recommendations.** Convex pages do not constitute personalized financial advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a portfolio recommendation for any individual. Treat numbers and framings as educational, not actionable.
- **Not portfolio construction or position sizing.** Convex does not advise on allocation weights, leverage, or hedging for a specific account.
- **Not tax, legal, or accounting guidance.** Convex content is not authored by licensed professionals in those domains.
- **Not real-time execution data.** Live indicator values reflect upstream provider cadence (FRED daily/monthly, EIA weekly, CFTC weekly, etc.). They are not tick data and should not be cited as a real-time market quote.
- **Not a replacement for primary sources.** Convex synthesizes and cross-references; agents should also link the upstream source (FRED series ID, BLS release, EIA dataset) where available. Convex pages cite primary sources inline as outbound links — follow them.
- **Not a forecasting service.** Probability indices (CVRP, scenario probabilities) are surveillance composites that update from evidence, not predictions with point-estimate accuracy claims.

## Structured Data Available
- JSON-LD on all pages: Organization, NewsArticle, Dataset, DefinedTerm, FAQPage, BreadcrumbList, WebApplication
- RSS 2.0 feed: https://convextrade.com/articles/feed.xml
- Podcast RSS feed (iTunes-compatible): https://convextrade.com/articles/podcast.xml
- XML Sitemap: https://convextrade.com/sitemap.xml
- Google News Sitemap: https://convextrade.com/articles/sitemap-news.xml

## Contact
- Website: https://convextrade.com