# Convex Trading, Full Content Index > Extended content index for AI systems. For the directory summary, see https://convextrade.com/llms.txt. > Website: https://convextrade.com > Licence: public content is free to cite with attribution to convextrade.com. ## Convex Proprietary Composite Indicators Four composite indicators computed daily from 668+ live data sources. ### CRPI, Convex Recession Probability Index - URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/crpi - Range: 0 to 100 (higher = higher recession probability) - Components: yield curve (2s10s, 3mo-10y), Sahm rule unemployment trigger, initial claims 4-week, credit spreads (HY, IG), LEI 6-month change, real rates slope - Weighting: equal-weighted z-scores of component signals, each mapped to 0-100 via historical distribution percentile - Interpretation bands: 0-25 Expansionary, 25-50 Neutral, 50-75 Elevated, 75-100 High Probability - Data sources: FRED (DGS2, DGS10, DGS3MO, UNRATE, IC4WSA, BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM, DFII10, USSLIND) ### CNLI, Convex Net Liquidity Index - URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/cnli - Formula: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (WALCL) - Reverse Repo (RRPONTSYD) - Treasury General Account (WTREGEN) - Unit: trillions USD - Interpretation: proxy for effective liquidity in the US financial system after absorbing Fed liabilities that don't circulate ### CRAI, Convex Risk Appetite Index - URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/crai - Range: 0 to 100 (higher = more risk-on) - Components: IWM/SPY (small vs large cap), HYG/LQD (credit risk), XLY/XLP (cyclical vs defensive), EEM/EFA (EM vs DM), KRE/SPY (regional bank exposure) - Weighting: equal-weighted z-score of 21-day rolling ratio changes - Interpretation: cross-asset proxy for aggregate market risk preference ### NVI, Convex Narrative Velocity Index - URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/nvi - Range: 0 to 100 - Inputs: 46 RSS feeds across Establishment, Contrarian, Wire, Government, Academic, Crypto, Neutral categories - Measures: narrative intensity around macro themes (inflation, recession, rates, geopolitics) - Use: detects narrative regime shifts before price action Full methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators ## Glossary Terms (0 entries) ## Economic Indicators (668 metrics) ### Asia Pacific Inflation - [Japan CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jpncpiallminmei): Japan consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the key deflation/inflation gauge for the world's third-largest economy. (monthly) - [India CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/indcpiallminmei): India consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the RBI's policy anchor since 2016. (monthly) - [South Korea CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/korcpiallminmei): South Korea consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the Bank of Korea's inflation gauge. (monthly) - [Indonesia CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/idncpiallminmei): Indonesia consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); a leading macro indicator for Southeast Asia's largest economy. (monthly) - [Australia CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auscpiallqinmei): Australia consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the RBA's 2-3% target gauge. (quarterly) - [Japan CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-jp): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Japan (IMF WEO). BoJ 2% target; decades of deflation finally reversed in 2022-2023. (annual) - [China CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-cn): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for China (IMF WEO). PBoC operates with an informal ~3% ceiling; China recently saw mild deflation. (annual) - [India CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-in): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for India (IMF WEO). RBI targets 4% ±2pp since 2016. (annual) - [South Korea CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-kr): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for South Korea (IMF WEO). BoK targets 2%; post-COVID disinflation reverted more quickly than G10 peers. (annual) - [Australia CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-au): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Australia (IMF WEO). RBA targets a 2-3% band. (annual) ### Asia Pacific Labor - [Japan Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-jp): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Japan from the IMF WEO. Structurally very low by G7 standards; demographics drag the labor force down. (annual) - [China Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-cn): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for China from the IMF WEO. The official urban survey rate runs close to 5%. (annual) - [India Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-in): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for India from the IMF WEO. Headline rate masks structurally high youth and working-age underemployment. (annual) - [South Korea Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-kr): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for South Korea from the IMF WEO. Structurally low; cyclically responsive to the chip-sector capex cycle. (annual) - [Australia Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-au): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Australia from the IMF WEO. Post-COVID rate dropped to its lowest since the 1970s before normalizing. (annual) ### Asia Pacific Rates - [Australia Cash Rate Target](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rba-cash-rate): Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate Target, the primary policy rate set by the RBA Board (RBA series FIRMMCRT, table F1.1). (monthly) - [Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rba-agb-10y): 10-year Australian Government bond yield, interpolated monthly by the RBA (series FCMYGBAG10, table F2.1). The AUD long-rate anchor. (monthly) - [Japan Overnight Call Rate Target](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boj-policy-rate): Bank of Japan uncollateralized overnight call rate (average), the operating target for the BoJ's monetary-policy stance (series IR01'STUC). (daily) ### Bank Lending Standards - [SLOOS: Banks Increasing C&I Spreads (Large/Mid)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/driscflm): Net share of domestic banks reporting increased spreads of loan rates over cost of funds for large and mid-market commercial and industrial loans. (quarterly) - [SLOOS: Banks Willing to Make C&I Loans (Large)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/driwcil): Net share of banks reporting increased willingness to make C&I loans to large firms; an early credit-cycle signal. (quarterly) - [SLOOS: Stronger C&I Demand (Small)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drsdcis): Net share of banks reporting stronger demand for C&I loans from small firms, a leading indicator of small-business investment intent. (quarterly) ### Bond Volatility - [MOVE Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/move-index): ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE); the bond-market counterpart to VIX, measuring implied volatility in Treasury options across 2Y / 5Y / 10Y / 30Y tenors in basis points. (daily) ### Bonds & Duration - [20Y+ Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tlt): iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy. (daily) - [7-10Y Treasury (IEF)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ief): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF. (daily) - [1-3Y Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/shy): iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, short duration. (daily) - [TIPS (TIP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tip): iShares TIPS Bond ETF, inflation-protected Treasuries. (daily) ### Commercial Paper - [Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/compaper): Outstanding nonfinancial commercial paper; a proxy for short-term corporate funding conditions outside the banking system. (weekly) - [Commercial Paper Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/compout): Total commercial paper outstanding across financial and nonfinancial issuers; the aggregate short-term funding gauge. (weekly) - [Financial Commercial Paper Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fincp): Commercial paper issued by financial entities; spikes when banks and finance companies pull short-term funding. (weekly) ### Commodities - [WTI Crude Oil (FRED)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dcoilwtico): West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price. (daily) - [Brent Crude Oil (FRED)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dcoilbrenteu): Brent crude oil spot price, the global benchmark. (daily) - [Henry Hub Natural Gas](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dhhngsp): Henry Hub natural gas spot price, US benchmark. (daily) - [Copper Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcoppusdm): Global copper price, "Dr. Copper" is a leading economic indicator. (monthly) - [US Retail Gasoline (Weekly)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gasregw): US retail regular gasoline price, weekly EIA survey, the canonical consumer-pain gauge. (weekly) - [Henry Hub Natural Gas (Monthly)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mhhngsp): Henry Hub natural gas spot price, monthly average; US benchmark for gas futures and heating costs. (monthly) - [Beef Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pbeefusdm): IMF global beef price index, monthly; input to food CPI forecasting. (monthly) - [Wheat Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pwheamtusdm): IMF global wheat price, monthly; a core food-inflation bellwether and geopolitical-risk gauge. (monthly) - [Soybean Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psoybusdm): IMF global soybean price, monthly; US export complex and China-demand proxy. (monthly) - [Cocoa Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcocousdm): IMF global cocoa price, monthly; West African supply shocks drove the 2024 spike. (monthly) - [Coffee Price (Other Mild Arabica)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcoffotmusdm): IMF global Other Mild Arabica coffee price, monthly; key to coffee CPI and Brazilian export cycles. (monthly) - [Iron Ore Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/piorecrusdm): IMF global iron ore price, monthly; a direct China-demand and Australian/Brazilian export proxy. (monthly) - [Sugar Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psugaisausdm): IMF global sugar (World No. 11 raw) price, monthly; ethanol-mandate and Brazilian cane-crop linked. (monthly) - [Soybean Meal Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psmeausdm): IMF global soybean meal price; a key protein-feed input for livestock and downstream meat inflation. (monthly) - [European Natural Gas Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pngaseuusdm): IMF European natural gas price; TTF-linked benchmark reflecting EU-Russia supply shocks. (monthly) - [Gold (Spot)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gold): Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge. (real-time) - [WTI Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wti): WTI crude oil price from market feeds. (real-time) - [Brent Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/metrics/brent): Brent crude oil price, the global benchmark. (real-time) - [Natural Gas](https://convextrade.com/metrics/natgas): Natural gas spot price. (real-time) - [Copper Futures (Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/copper-f): COMEX copper futures daily close, real-time complement to monthly FRED copper price. (daily) - [Gold ETF (GLD)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gld): SPDR Gold Shares, largest gold ETF. (daily) - [Oil ETF (USO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uso): United States Oil Fund, WTI crude oil futures ETF. (daily) - [Agriculture ETF (DBA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dba): Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, broad agricultural commodities. (daily) ### Consumer Credit - [Household Financial Obligations Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fodsp): Household financial obligations (debt service plus auto lease, rent, homeowner insurance, property tax) as a share of disposable personal income. (quarterly) - [Household Debt Service Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tdsp): Household debt service payments as a share of disposable personal income; rises before consumer-led recessions. (quarterly) - [Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drsfrmacbs): Share of 1-to-4 family residential mortgages held by commercial banks that are 30+ days past due. (quarterly) - [Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drclacbs): Share of consumer loans at all commercial banks that are 30+ days past due, a broad household-credit-quality gauge. (quarterly) ### Credit & Financial Stress - [HY Credit Spread (OAS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a0hym2): ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk. (daily) - [IG Credit Spread (OAS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a0cm): ICE BofA Investment Grade OAS, credit stress in high-quality corporate bonds. (daily) - [HY Effective Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a0hym2ey): HY corporate bond effective yield, total return required by junk bond investors. (daily) - [IG Effective Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a0cmey): IG corporate bond effective yield, cost of investment-grade corporate borrowing. (daily) - [BBB Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a4cbbb): BBB-rated corporate bond OAS, the lowest rung of investment grade. (daily) - [AAA Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a1caaa): AAA-rated corporate bond OAS, flight-to-quality indicator. (daily) - [Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/aaa10y): Moody's Aaa corporate minus 10Y Treasury, credit risk premium for top-rated corporates. (daily) - [Baa-10Y Treasury Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/baa10y): Moody's Baa minus 10Y Treasury, a wider measure of corporate credit risk. (daily) - [Financial Conditions (NFCI)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nfci): Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, positive = tighter than average. (weekly) - [Adjusted NFCI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/anfci): NFCI adjusted for prevailing economic conditions, isolates financial stress from the cycle. (weekly) - [Financial Stress Index (StL)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/stlfsi4): St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, below zero = below-average stress. (weekly) - [SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drtscilm): Senior Loan Officer Survey, net % of banks tightening standards on C&I loans. (quarterly) - [SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drtsclcc): Net % of banks tightening credit card lending standards. (quarterly) - [Credit Card Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drcclacbs): Delinquency rate on credit card loans, consumer stress indicator. (quarterly) - [Moody's Aaa Corporate Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/aaa): Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, the deepest historical US investment-grade series. (daily) - [Moody's Baa Corporate Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/baa): Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, the classic lowest-rung investment-grade benchmark. (daily) - [AA Corporate OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a2caa): ICE BofA AA-rated corporate option-adjusted spread, the tightest rung of true investment-grade credit. (daily) - [A Corporate OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a3ca): ICE BofA single-A corporate OAS, the core of the investment-grade index by market weight. (daily) - [7-10Y Corporate OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc4a0c710y): ICE BofA 7 to 10 year corporate OAS, tenor-matched duration component of the IG complex. (daily) - [BB HY OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a1hybb): ICE BofA BB-rated high-yield OAS, the highest-quality junk bond tier. (daily) - [Single-B HY OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a2hyb): ICE BofA single-B high-yield OAS, the mid-tier junk bond cohort. (daily) - [CCC & Lower HY OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a3hyc): ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS, the distressed end of credit that spikes hardest in crises. (daily) - [High Yield Credit (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/hyg): iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF. (daily) - [IG Credit (LQD)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lqd): iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF. (daily) ### Crypto - [Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc): Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer. (real-time) - [Ethereum](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eth): Ethereum spot price, the leading smart contract platform token. (real-time) ### Crypto ETF Flows - [BTC Spot ETF Net Flow (Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-flow-daily): Aggregate daily net flow across US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, etc.) in USD millions; the headline flow signal for institutional BTC demand. (daily) - [BTC Spot ETF Net Flow (Latest)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-flow-latest): Most recent known aggregate BTC spot ETF net flow reading from CoinGlass; mirrored separately so dashboards can show the latest print without a date filter. (daily) - [BTC Spot ETF Total Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-total-volume): Aggregate dollar trading volume across the major US spot BTC ETFs (IBIT + FBTC + GBTC), in USD millions; flow size context for net-flow readings. (daily) - [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT) Net Flow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-ibit-flow): Daily net flow into BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in USD millions. (daily) - [Fidelity BTC Fund (FBTC) Net Flow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-fbtc-flow): Daily net flow into Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) in USD millions. (daily) - [Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Net Flow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-gbtc-flow): Daily net flow into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in USD millions; persistent outflows post-conversion are the dominant signal to track. (daily) - [IBIT Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-ibit-volume): IBIT daily dollar trading volume (close price × shares traded) from Yahoo Finance. (daily) - [FBTC Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-fbtc-volume): FBTC daily dollar trading volume. (daily) - [GBTC Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-gbtc-volume): GBTC daily dollar trading volume. (daily) - [IBIT Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-ibit-price): IBIT daily close price from Yahoo Finance. (daily) - [FBTC Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-fbtc-price): FBTC daily close price. (daily) - [GBTC Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-gbtc-price): GBTC daily close price. (daily) ### Economic Activity - [Nominal GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gdp): US gross domestic product in current dollars. (quarterly) - [Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gdpc1): Inflation-adjusted GDP, the definitive measure of economic output. (quarterly) - [Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/metrics/indpro): Industrial production index, measures factory, mining, and utility output. (monthly) - [Capacity Utilization](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tcu): Industrial capacity utilization rate, high readings signal inflationary bottlenecks. (monthly) - [Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rsxfs): Advance retail sales excluding food services, consumer spending momentum. (monthly) - [Durable Goods Orders](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgorder): New orders for manufactured durable goods, proxy for business investment intentions. (monthly) - [Consumer Sentiment (Michigan)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/umcsent): University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, how consumers feel about the economy. (monthly) - [Auto Sales (SAAR)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/totalsa): Total vehicle sales at seasonally adjusted annual rate. (monthly) - [Inventories-to-Sales Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/isratio): Business inventories relative to sales, rising ratio signals slowing demand. (monthly) - [Real Disposable Income](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dspic96): Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income. (monthly) - [Personal Saving Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psavert): Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, buffer for future spending. (monthly) - [Real Personal Consumption](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcec96): Inflation-adjusted consumer spending, ~70% of US GDP. (monthly) - [Total Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/metrics/totalsl): Total outstanding consumer credit, auto loans, student loans, credit cards. (monthly) - [C&I Loans (All Banks)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/busloans): Commercial and industrial loans, business borrowing appetite. (monthly) - [Revolving Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/metrics/revolsl): Outstanding revolving credit (mainly credit cards). (monthly) - [Non-Revolving Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nonrevsl): Non-revolving credit (auto loans, student loans, personal loans). (monthly) - [Corporate Profits After Tax](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpatax): Aggregate corporate profits after tax, key equity valuation input. (quarterly) - [Mfg Unfilled Orders-to-Shipments](https://convextrade.com/metrics/umtmvs): Manufacturing unfilled orders relative to shipments, a leading indicator of industrial bottlenecks and backlog pressure. (monthly) - [Manufacturers' New Orders (Total)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/amtmno): Total new orders received by US manufacturers, a leading gauge of industrial activity that feeds into Chicago Fed and Conference Board LEI composites. (monthly) - [Empire State Manufacturing Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gacdisa066msfrbny): NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions diffusion index, one of the earliest monthly regional PMIs. (monthly) ### EM FX - [USD/KRW](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexkous): US dollar to South Korean won exchange rate; Asian risk barometer and semiconductor-cycle proxy. (daily) - [USD/INR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexinus): US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate; RBI intervenes actively to smooth volatility. (daily) - [USD/THB](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexthus): US dollar to Thai baht exchange rate; ASEAN bellwether after the 1997 crisis reshaped EM architecture. (daily) - [USD/TWD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dextaus): US dollar to Taiwan dollar exchange rate; semiconductor supply-chain currency. (daily) - [USD/ZAR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexsfus): US dollar to South African rand exchange rate; high-beta EM currency tracking gold, platinum, and global risk appetite. (daily) - [USD/MYR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexmaus): US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate; a commodities-linked ASEAN currency tied to palm oil and LNG exports. (daily) ### EM Inflation - [South Africa CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/zafcpiallminmei): South Africa consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); SARB's policy guide. (monthly) - [Turkey CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/turcpiallminmei): Turkey consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); reflects the TCMB era of unconventional policy and subsequent normalization. (monthly) - [Russia CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ruscpiallminmei): Russia consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); note post-2022 sanctions regime may shift data coverage and reliability. (monthly) - [South Africa CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-za): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for South Africa (IMF WEO). SARB targets a 3-6% band; inflation historically sits near the midpoint. (annual) - [Turkey CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-tr): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Turkey (IMF WEO). Unconventional policy drove the inflation regime into hyperinflation-adjacent readings post-2021. (annual) ### Energy Supply - [US Crude Oil Inventories](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eia-crude-stocks): US commercial crude oil inventories, supply/demand barometer for oil markets. (weekly) - [US Crude Oil Production](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eia-crude-prod): US crude oil field production. (weekly) - [US Crude Oil Imports](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eia-crude-imports): US crude oil imports, net of exports for supply balance. (weekly) ### Equity Index - [S&P 500 ETF (SPY)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/spy): SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index. (daily) - [Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/qqq): Invesco QQQ tracking the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. (daily) - [Dow Jones ETF (DIA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dia): SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, tracks the 30 blue-chip Dow components. (daily) - [Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/iwm): iShares Russell 2000 ETF, small-cap equity benchmark. (daily) - [S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rsp): Equal-weight S&P 500, measures market breadth vs cap-weighted SPY. (daily) - [Emerging Markets (EEM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eem): iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. (daily) - [China Large-Cap (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fxi): iShares China Large-Cap ETF, proxy for Chinese equity market. (daily) - [EAFE Developed (EFA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/efa): iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, developed markets excluding US and Canada. (daily) - [Germany / DAX (EWG)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ewg): iShares MSCI Germany ETF, proxy for the DAX and German equity market. (daily) - [Japan / Nikkei (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ewj): iShares MSCI Japan ETF, proxy for the Nikkei 225 and Japanese equity market. (daily) ### Equity Sector - [Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlf): Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Energy (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xle): Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlk): Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Utilities (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlu): Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund, defensive, rate-sensitive. (daily) - [Industrials (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xli): Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Healthcare (XLV)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlv): Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xly): Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlp): Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, defensive sector. (daily) - [Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlc): Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily) - [Real Estate (XLRE)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlre): Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund, rate-sensitive. (daily) - [Semiconductors (SMH)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF, leads the tech cycle. (daily) - [Homebuilders (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xhb): SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, housing cycle bellwether. (daily) - [Regional Banks (KRE)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/kre): SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, credit cycle indicator. (daily) ### Equity Stock - [Apple (AAPL)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/aapl): Apple Inc., the world's most valuable company by market cap. (daily) - [Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/msft): Microsoft Corp., enterprise software and cloud computing leader. (daily) - [Nvidia (NVDA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nvda): Nvidia Corp., the AI/GPU chip leader driving the AI capex cycle. (daily) - [Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/googl): Alphabet Inc., Google parent company, digital advertising leader. (daily) - [Meta (META)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/meta): Meta Platforms Inc., Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp parent. (daily) - [Amazon (AMZN)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/amzn): Amazon.com Inc., e-commerce and AWS cloud leader. (daily) - [Tesla (TSLA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tsla): Tesla Inc., electric vehicle and energy company, high retail sentiment indicator. (daily) - [JPMorgan (JPM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jpm): JPMorgan Chase, largest US bank, financial sector bellwether. (daily) - [Caterpillar (CAT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cat): Caterpillar Inc., industrial and infrastructure cycle bellwether. (daily) - [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xom): Exxon Mobil Corp., energy sector bellwether, tracks oil prices. (daily) - [Walmart (WMT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wmt): Walmart Inc., consumer staples bellwether, defensive play. (daily) - [UnitedHealth (UNH)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/unh): UnitedHealth Group, healthcare sector bellwether, largest health insurer. (daily) - [Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fcx): Freeport-McMoRan, copper mining bellwether, tracks global industrial demand. (daily) ### EU/UK Equity - [FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ftse100): FTSE 100 index, the UK large-cap equity benchmark. (daily) - [DAX 40](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dax40): DAX 40 index, the German large-cap equity benchmark. (daily) - [CAC 40](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cac40): CAC 40 index, the French large-cap equity benchmark. (daily) - [Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eurostoxx50): Euro Stoxx 50, the eurozone blue-chip equity benchmark. (daily) ### EU/UK Fixed Income - [UK Gilt ETF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-gilt-etf): iShares Core UK Gilts ETF, UK government bond exposure. (daily) - [EU Gov Bond ETF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eu-gov-bond-etf): iShares Core EU Government Bond ETF. (daily) ### EU/UK Inflation - [UK CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-gb): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the United Kingdom (IMF WEO). BoE targets 2% with a symmetric ±1pp corridor. (annual) - [Germany CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-de): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Germany (IMF WEO). Operates under ECB's 2% target; German inflation historically tracks below the Eurozone average. (annual) - [France CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-fr): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for France (IMF WEO). Tracks near the Eurozone average under the ECB's 2% target. (annual) - [Italy CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-it): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Italy (IMF WEO). Among the lower-inflation Eurozone economies historically. (annual) - [Spain CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-es): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Spain (IMF WEO). Particularly sensitive to energy-price shocks under the ECB regime. (annual) - [Netherlands CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-nl): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the Netherlands (IMF WEO). Dutch CPI closely tracks the Eurozone HICP under the ECB's 2% target. (annual) - [Sweden CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-se): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Sweden (IMF WEO). Riksbank targets 2%; CPIF is the operative domestic measure. (annual) - [Switzerland CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-ch): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Switzerland (IMF WEO). SNB targets a 0-2% band; Swiss CPI runs structurally below peers. (annual) - [Eurozone HICP (Index)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ez-hicp): Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (2015=100) across the 19 euro-area members. (monthly) - [UK CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-cpi): UK Consumer Price Index, all items. (monthly) ### EU/UK Labor - [Germany Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttdem156s): Germany harmonised unemployment rate; core Eurozone labor gauge. (monthly) - [France Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttfrm156s): France harmonised unemployment rate; second-largest Eurozone labor market. (monthly) - [Italy Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttitm156s): Italy harmonised unemployment rate; captures structural southern-European labor weakness. (monthly) - [Spain Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttesm156s): Spain harmonised unemployment rate; historically the highest-unemployment large Eurozone economy. (monthly) - [UK Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-gb): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the United Kingdom from the IMF WEO. Post-COVID labor participation declines kept the rate elevated. (annual) - [Germany Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-de): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Germany from the IMF WEO. Strong labor market; structurally below 5% in recent cycles. (annual) - [France Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-fr): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for France from the IMF WEO. Structurally higher than core Europe for decades. (annual) - [Italy Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-it): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Italy from the IMF WEO. Regional dispersion is stark; southern Italy sustains double-digit unemployment. (annual) - [Spain Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-es): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Spain from the IMF WEO. Chronically the highest jobless rate in the G7. (annual) - [Netherlands Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-nl): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the Netherlands from the IMF WEO. Very low structural unemployment by European standards. (annual) - [Sweden Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-se): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Sweden from the IMF WEO. Low unemployment, high labor participation. (annual) - [Switzerland Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-ch): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Switzerland from the IMF WEO. Very low jobless rate by G7 standards. (annual) - [Eurozone Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ez-unemployment): Eurozone harmonised unemployment rate. (monthly) - [UK Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-unemployment): UK ILO unemployment rate. (monthly) ### EU/UK Rates - [Switzerland SNB Policy Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/snb-policy-rate): Swiss National Bank policy rate, set at quarterly monetary-policy assessments (cube snbpolra). Replaced the LIBOR-based target band in June 2019. (daily) - [ECB Deposit Facility Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-deposit-rate): ECB deposit facility rate, the floor of the euro area interest rate corridor. (monthly) - [ECB Main Refinancing Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-main-refi-rate): ECB main refinancing operations rate, the key policy rate. (monthly) - [ECB Marginal Lending Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-marginal-lending): ECB marginal lending facility rate, the ceiling of the corridor. (monthly) - [€STR (Euro Short-Term Rate)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-estr): €STR, the euro short-term rate replacing EONIA. (daily) - [BoE Bank Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-bank-rate): Bank of England official Bank Rate, the UK policy rate. (daily) - [UK 10Y Gilt Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-gilt-10y): UK 10-year gilt yield, monthly average from Bank of England. (monthly) - [UK 2Y Gilt Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-gilt-2y): UK 2-year gilt yield, monthly average from Bank of England. (monthly) - [UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-gilt-10y-eom): UK 10-year gilt yield, end of month from Bank of England. (monthly) - [Italy 10Y BTP Yield (Q)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/italy-10y-btp): Italy 10-year government bond yield, quarterly from FRED. (quarterly) - [Eurozone Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ez-real-gdp): Eurozone real GDP in chain-linked volumes (millions of chained 2010 EUR), the broadest measure of euro-area economic output. (quarterly) - [EURIBOR 3M](https://convextrade.com/metrics/euribor-3m): Euro Interbank Offered Rate at 3-month tenor, the key euro area money-market benchmark. (monthly) - [UK Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-real-gdp): UK real GDP (millions of domestic currency), seasonally adjusted, quarterly — sourced from FRED (ONS via IMF IFS). (quarterly) ### EU/UK Volatility - [VSTOXX](https://convextrade.com/metrics/vstoxx): VSTOXX, implied volatility on Euro Stoxx 50 options. (daily) ### Fed Balance Sheet Detail - [Fed Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treast): Fed holdings of US Treasury securities, the largest single line on the H.4.1 asset side. (weekly) - [Fed MBS Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mbst): Fed holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities, the other major SOMA portfolio. (weekly) - [Fed Repo Operations](https://convextrade.com/metrics/resppllopnww): Outstanding repurchase agreements on the Fed balance sheet, spikes during money-market stress. (weekly) - [Fed Reverse Repo Liabilities](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wlrral): H.4.1 reverse repo liabilities, the liability-side complement to the ON-RRP take-up series. (weekly) - [Fed TGA (Liability Side)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wdtgal): Treasury General Account balance as it appears on the Fed liability side of H.4.1. (weekly) - [Fed Central Bank Liquidity Swaps](https://convextrade.com/metrics/swpt): Outstanding Fed dollar liquidity swaps to foreign central banks, spikes in global dollar funding stress. (weekly) - [Fed Primary Credit Lending](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wlcflpcl): Primary credit lending via the discount window, spikes in bank funding stress episodes like SVB March 2023. (weekly) ### Fed Nowcasts - [Atlanta Fed GDPNow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gdpnow): Atlanta Fed real-time nowcast of current-quarter real GDP growth, updated 6-7 times per quarter as new data releases arrive. (weekly) - [Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-cpi-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of the current-month CPI MoM change, using a dynamic factor model updated daily as price data releases arrive. (daily) - [Cleveland Fed Core CPI Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-core-cpi-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of core CPI MoM change, the inflation signal excluding food and energy that the Fed watches most closely. (daily) - [Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-pce-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of headline PCE inflation MoM change, the Fed's statutory target measure. (daily) - [Cleveland Fed Core PCE Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-core-pce-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of core PCE MoM change, the single most important inflation reading for FOMC decisions. (daily) ### Fed Policy Expectations - [FedWatch Next-Meeting Cut Probability](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-next-cut-prob): Market-implied probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, derived from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Next-Meeting Implied Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-next-implied-rate): Market-implied effective fed funds rate priced for the next FOMC meeting, from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Rate (M1)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m1): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the next FOMC meeting from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Cut Probability (M1)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m1): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M1 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Hike Probability (M1)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m1): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M1 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m1): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M1, in basis points. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Rate (M2)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m2): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 2 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Cut Probability (M2)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m2): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M2 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Hike Probability (M2)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m2): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M2 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Change (M2, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m2): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M2, in basis points. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Rate (M3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m3): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 3 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Cut Probability (M3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m3): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M3 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Hike Probability (M3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m3): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M3 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Change (M3, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m3): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M3, in basis points. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Rate (M4)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m4): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 4 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Cut Probability (M4)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m4): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M4 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Hike Probability (M4)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m4): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M4 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Change (M4, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m4): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M4, in basis points. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Rate (M5)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m5): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 5 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Cut Probability (M5)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m5): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M5 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Hike Probability (M5)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m5): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M5 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Change (M5, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m5): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M5, in basis points. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Rate (M6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m6): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 6 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Cut Probability (M6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m6): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M6 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Hike Probability (M6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m6): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M6 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily) - [FedWatch Implied Change (M6, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m6): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M6, in basis points. (daily) ### Flow of Funds - [Household Net Worth](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tnwbshno): Total net worth of US households and nonprofit organizations, assets minus liabilities, from the Fed Z.1 release. (quarterly) - [Household Total Assets](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tabshno): Total assets held by US households and nonprofits, before subtracting liabilities. (quarterly) - [Household Debt Securities & Loans](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cmdebt): Household liabilities from debt securities and loans, the comprehensive consumer-leverage aggregate from Z.1. (quarterly) - [1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/hhmsdodns): Outstanding single-family residential mortgage debt held by US households, tracking mortgage-credit expansion cycles. (quarterly) - [All Sectors Total Loans](https://convextrade.com/metrics/astll): All-sectors total loans liability from the Fed Z.1; the economy-wide aggregate of outstanding loans across households, firms, and government. (quarterly) ### FX & Dollar - [Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dtwexbgs): Broad trade-weighted US dollar index, measures dollar strength vs major trading partners. (daily) - [EM Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dtwexemegs): Dollar index weighted by emerging-market trading partners. (daily) - [EUR/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexuseu): Euro to US dollar exchange rate. (daily) - [JPY/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexjpus): Japanese yen to US dollar exchange rate. (daily) - [CNY/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexchus): Chinese yuan to US dollar exchange rate. (daily) - [BRL/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexbzus): Brazilian real to US dollar exchange rate. (daily) - [Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbusbis): BIS real effective exchange rate for the US dollar, inflation-adjusted competitiveness. (monthly) - [Trade Balance](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bopgstb): US trade balance in goods and services, negative = trade deficit. (monthly) - [AUD/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexusal): Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate; commodity currency tracking iron ore, coal, and China demand. (daily) - [NZD/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexusnz): New Zealand dollar to US dollar exchange rate; dairy and carry-trade currency. (daily) - [USD/CHF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexszus): US dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate; CHF is the classic risk-off safe haven with occasional SNB intervention. (daily) - [USD/SEK](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexsdus): US dollar to Swedish krona exchange rate; Scandinavian bellwether. (daily) - [USD/NOK](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexnous): US dollar to Norwegian krone exchange rate; petro-currency tracking Brent. (daily) - [USD/DKK](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexdnus): US dollar to Danish krone exchange rate; DKK runs a tight euro peg. (daily) - [USD/SGD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexsius): US dollar to Singapore dollar exchange rate; MAS-managed basket currency serving as Asia trade-weighted barometer. (daily) - [USD/HKD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexhkus): US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate; pegged 7.75-7.85 band by the HKMA. (daily) - [Japan Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbjpbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Japan; JPY on a trade-weighted inflation-adjusted basis. (monthly) - [China Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbcnbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for China; trade-weighted CNY gauge capturing relative competitiveness. (monthly) - [UK Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbgbbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for the UK; GBP trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [Canada Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbcabis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Canada; CAD trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [South Korea Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbkrbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for South Korea; KRW trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [India Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbinbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for India; INR trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [Australia Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbaubis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Australia; AUD trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [Brazil Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbbrbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Brazil; BRL trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [Mexico Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbmxbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Mexico; MXN trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly) - [Switzerland Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbchbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Switzerland; CHF trade-weighted real gauge; SNB policy-relevant metric. (monthly) - [Russia Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbrubis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Russia; RUB trade-weighted real gauge; post-2022 sanctions era warrants caution. (monthly) - [US Dollar Bull (UUP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uup): Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund. (daily) - [GBP/USD (FRED)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gbpusd-fred): GBP/USD exchange rate from FRED. (daily) - [GBP/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gbpusd): GBP/USD spot rate from Yahoo Finance. (daily) - [EUR/GBP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eurgbp): EUR/GBP spot rate. (daily) - [CAD/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexcaus): Canadian dollar per US dollar. (daily) - [MXN/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexmxus): Mexican peso per US dollar. (daily) ### Global Central Bank Assets - [ECB Balance Sheet (Weekly)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecbassetsw): Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet total, weekly. The ECB QE/QT gauge — peaked ~8.8T EUR in Jun-2022, contracting steadily since. (weekly) - [BoJ Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jpnassets): Bank of Japan total assets, monthly. The broadest BoJ balance-sheet gauge, dominated by JGB holdings under YCC and its gradual unwind. (monthly) - [PBOC Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/metrics/chnassets): People's Bank of China total assets, monthly. Moves with FX reserve build, RRR cuts, and MLF/PSL lending operations. (monthly) - [Bank of England Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gbrassets): Bank of England total assets, monthly. Tracks APF gilt holdings plus sterling liquidity operations through the unwind. (monthly) ### Global Credit Gap - [US Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-us): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the United States; the difference in percentage points between private non-financial sector credit-to-GDP and its HP-filter trend, a core BIS financial cycle indicator. (quarterly) - [China Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-cn): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for China; the benchmark BIS gauge flagged this as the largest positive gap in the world during 2013-2017 before policy-driven deleveraging brought it back to trend. (quarterly) - [Japan Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-jp): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Japan; one of the few developed-market gaps to turn positive in the post-pandemic cycle, reflecting persistent corporate credit creation. (quarterly) - [Euro Area Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-ea): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the Euro Area (XM); aggregate measure across 20 member states, still negative into 2025 reflecting post-GFC credit repair. (quarterly) - [UK Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-gb): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the United Kingdom; the 2008-2009 gap peaked near +35 percentage points, largest in the G7, and has been negative since 2011. (quarterly) - [Germany Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-de): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Germany; a structurally low-debt economy that rarely registers a positive gap of any size. (quarterly) - [France Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-fr): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for France; one of the few G7 economies to maintain a positive gap into the mid-2010s before the post-pandemic normalization turned it negative. (quarterly) - [Italy Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-it): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Italy; deeply negative since the Eurozone crisis, reflecting the sustained deleveraging of the Italian banking and household sectors. (quarterly) - [Spain Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-es): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Spain; arguably the most dramatic financial-cycle swing in the BIS dataset, from +45 pre-2008 to -45 by mid-2010s. (quarterly) - [Canada Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-ca): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Canada; a housing-boom-driven gap that ran well above +20 through the mid-2010s and only recently went into deeply negative territory. (quarterly) - [Australia Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-au): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Australia; one of the few Asia-Pacific advanced economies to show persistent positive gaps tied to housing credit growth. (quarterly) - [Korea Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-kr): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for South Korea; household debt accumulation drove this above +15 during 2020-2021 before domestic macroprudential tightening. (quarterly) - [India Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-in): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for India; reflects both the post-GFC deleveraging and the more recent acceleration in household credit. (quarterly) - [Brazil Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-br): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Brazil; highly cyclical and sensitive to Selic rate moves and fiscal sentiment. (quarterly) - [Mexico Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-mx): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Mexico; historically one of the shallower gap series reflecting structurally low private-sector debt relative to GDP. (quarterly) ### Housing - [Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/metrics/houst): New privately-owned housing units started, leading indicator of construction activity. (monthly) - [Building Permits](https://convextrade.com/metrics/permit): New privately-owned building permits, leading indicator of future housing starts. (monthly) - [New Home Sales](https://convextrade.com/metrics/hsn1f): Sales of new single-family houses, sensitive to mortgage rates and consumer confidence. (monthly) - [Case-Shiller Home Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/csushpinsa): S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. (monthly) - [Months Supply of Houses](https://convextrade.com/metrics/msacsr): Months of unsold housing inventory, below 4 = seller's market, above 6 = buyer's market. (monthly) - [30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mortgage30us): 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the primary driver of housing affordability. (weekly) - [Housing Starts: Single-Family](https://convextrade.com/metrics/houst1f): Annualized rate of new privately-owned single-family housing units started; the purest gauge of detached home construction. (monthly) - [Housing Starts: 5+ Units](https://convextrade.com/metrics/houst5f): Annualized rate of new housing starts in 5+ unit buildings, primarily multifamily apartment construction. (monthly) - [Building Permits: Single-Family](https://convextrade.com/metrics/permit1): Authorized new single-family housing units, typically 4-6 weeks ahead of starts. (monthly) - [Building Permits: 5+ Units](https://convextrade.com/metrics/permit5): Authorized new housing units in multifamily (5+ unit) projects; a multifamily construction leading indicator. (monthly) - [Housing Completions](https://convextrade.com/metrics/computsa): Total new privately-owned housing units completed, seasonally adjusted; converts the starts backlog into finished supply. (monthly) - [Vacant Housing Units](https://convextrade.com/metrics/evacantusq176n): Estimate of vacant housing units in the US housing stock; sustained decline signals a tightening supply-demand balance. (quarterly) - [FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ussthpi): FHFA all-transactions house price index for the United States; a broad repeat-sales measure of home price appreciation. (quarterly) ### Housing Sentiment - [NAHB Housing Market Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi): NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index; monthly diffusion index of single-family homebuilder sentiment scaled 0-100 where readings above 50 indicate more builders view conditions as good than poor. (monthly) - [NAHB HMI Current Sales](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi-current): NAHB HMI sub-index for current single-family home sales conditions; builders rate today (not next six months) good, fair, or poor. Scaled 0-100. (monthly) - [NAHB HMI Future Sales (6mo)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi-future): NAHB HMI sub-index for expected single-family home sales over the next six months; a forward-looking read on builder pipelines. Scaled 0-100. (monthly) - [NAHB HMI Buyer Traffic](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi-traffic): NAHB HMI sub-index for traffic of prospective buyers visiting model homes and developments; the most volatile of the three components. Scaled 0-100. (monthly) ### IMF Macro - [US Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-us): Annual real GDP growth rate for the United States from the IMF World Economic Outlook, via World Bank open data. The G7 growth benchmark; typically oscillates 1.5-3%. (annual) - [Canada Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-ca): Annual real GDP growth rate for Canada from the IMF World Economic Outlook. A resource-exporter tightly coupled to US demand and commodity prices. (annual) - [Mexico Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-mx): Annual real GDP growth rate for Mexico from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Tightly integrated with US supply chains post-USMCA. (annual) - [Brazil Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-br): Annual real GDP growth rate for Brazil from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Largest Latin American economy, driven by commodity and agricultural export cycles. (annual) - [Argentina Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-ar): Annual real GDP growth rate for Argentina from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally volatile; oscillates between stabilization programs and inflation crises. (annual) - [UK Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-gb): Annual real GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom from the IMF World Economic Outlook. UK growth slowed structurally post-Brexit. (annual) - [Germany Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-de): Annual real GDP growth rate for Germany from the IMF World Economic Outlook. The Eurozone anchor; manufacturing-export driven. (annual) - [France Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-fr): Annual real GDP growth rate for France from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Second-largest Eurozone economy, service-led. (annual) - [Italy Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-it): Annual real GDP growth rate for Italy from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally lower growth than the Eurozone average. (annual) - [Spain Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-es): Annual real GDP growth rate for Spain from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Highly cyclical with housing-driven booms and busts. (annual) - [Netherlands Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-nl): Annual real GDP growth rate for the Netherlands from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Small open economy anchored by port and services trade. (annual) - [Sweden Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-se): Annual real GDP growth rate for Sweden from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Small open economy with a freely floating krona. (annual) - [Switzerland Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-ch): Annual real GDP growth rate for Switzerland from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Franc safe-haven flows shape the growth trajectory. (annual) - [Japan Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-jp): Annual real GDP growth rate for Japan from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's fourth-largest economy; emerged from chronic deflation only recently. (annual) - [China Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-cn): Annual real GDP growth rate for China from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's second-largest economy; growth decelerated meaningfully since the mid-2010s. (annual) - [India Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-in): Annual real GDP growth rate for India from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's fastest-growing large economy. (annual) - [South Korea Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-kr): Annual real GDP growth rate for South Korea from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Export-driven industrial economy; highly exposed to the semiconductor cycle. (annual) - [Australia Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-au): Annual real GDP growth rate for Australia from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Resource-exporter with heavy exposure to the commodity cycle. (annual) - [South Africa Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-za): Annual real GDP growth rate for South Africa from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally low-growth emerging economy with persistent power-grid constraints. (annual) - [Turkey Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-tr): Annual real GDP growth rate for Turkey from the IMF World Economic Outlook. High-volatility emerging economy with recurring FX and inflation crises. (annual) - [US CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-us): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the United States (IMF WEO via World Bank). The Fed's dual mandate anchor; averages ~2% over cycles. (annual) - [Canada CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-ca): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Canada (IMF WEO). The Bank of Canada targets 2% at the midpoint of a 1-3% band. (annual) - [US Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-us): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the United States from the IMF WEO. Pre-pandemic NAIRU estimates sat around 4.0-4.5%. (annual) - [Canada Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-ca): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Canada from the IMF WEO. Structurally close to the BoC's non-inflationary rate. (annual) - [Mexico Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-mx): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Mexico from the IMF WEO. Structurally low headline reading masks a large informal sector. (annual) - [Brazil Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-br): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Brazil from the IMF WEO. Two-tier labor market with high informality. (annual) - [Argentina Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-ar): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Argentina from the IMF WEO. Formal-sector unemployment runs around 7-10% through cycles. (annual) - [South Africa Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-za): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for South Africa from the IMF WEO. Highest structural jobless rate among major economies, routinely above 30%. (annual) - [Turkey Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-tr): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Turkey from the IMF WEO. Structurally around 10% across cycles. (annual) - [US Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-us): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the United States (IMF WEO). Chronic deficit around -3% of GDP reflects the reserve-currency status. (annual) - [Canada Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-ca): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Canada (IMF WEO). Moves with commodity price cycles; typically small deficit. (annual) - [Mexico Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-mx): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Mexico (IMF WEO). Runs modest deficits in normal times, financed by remittances and FDI. (annual) - [Brazil Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-br): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Brazil (IMF WEO). Agricultural and iron-ore surpluses partly offset service deficits. (annual) - [Argentina Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-ar): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Argentina (IMF WEO). Swings between crisis-driven deficit and post-crisis adjustment surplus. (annual) - [UK Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-gb): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the United Kingdom (IMF WEO). Chronic deficit around -3 to -4% reflects structural trade imbalance. (annual) - [Germany Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-de): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Germany (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus reflects manufacturing export strength. (annual) - [France Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-fr): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for France (IMF WEO). Small deficit with structural tourism and luxury-goods surplus offsets. (annual) - [Italy Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-it): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Italy (IMF WEO). Persistent small surplus since the Eurozone crisis. (annual) - [Spain Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-es): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Spain (IMF WEO). Swung from large pre-GFC deficits to modest surpluses post-2012. (annual) - [Netherlands Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-nl): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the Netherlands (IMF WEO). Large persistent surplus from port and trade-hub intermediation. (annual) - [Sweden Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-se): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Sweden (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by manufacturing exports. (annual) - [Switzerland Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-ch): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Switzerland (IMF WEO). Large persistent surplus reflects banking and precision-industry exports. (annual) - [Japan Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-jp): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Japan (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by overseas investment income and manufacturing trade. (annual) - [China Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-cn): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for China (IMF WEO). Surplus narrowed post-2008 but remains sizable due to manufacturing exports. (annual) - [India Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-in): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for India (IMF WEO). Runs modest deficits, financed by FDI and IT-services exports. (annual) - [South Korea Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-kr): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for South Korea (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by tech and auto exports. (annual) - [Australia Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-au): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Australia (IMF WEO). Historically chronic deficit; flipped to surplus post-2019 via commodity exports. (annual) - [South Africa Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-za): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for South Africa (IMF WEO). Small deficits reliant on commodity prices and cross-border capital flows. (annual) - [Turkey Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-tr): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Turkey (IMF WEO). Swings from wide deficits to narrower surpluses with each FX adjustment cycle. (annual) ### Inflation - [CPI (All Urban)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiaucsl): Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge. (monthly) - [Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpilfesl): CPI excluding food and energy, less volatile measure of underlying inflation. (monthly) - [PCE Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcepi): Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. (monthly) - [Core PCE (ex Food/Energy)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcepilfe): Core PCE excluding food and energy, the single most important inflation metric for the Fed. (monthly) - [PPI Final Demand](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ppifis): Producer Price Index for final demand, leading indicator of consumer inflation. (monthly) - [CPI: Rent of Shelter](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cusr0000seha): CPI shelter component, the stickiest and largest component of core CPI. (monthly) - [CPI: Supercore Services](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cusr0000sasle): Core services ex housing, the "supercore" metric the Fed watches for wage-driven inflation. (monthly) - [CPI: Used Cars & Trucks](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cusr0000seta02): Used vehicle price index, volatile goods component that drove 2021-22 inflation. (monthly) - [CPI: Energy](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiengsl): Energy component of CPI, driven by oil prices and utility costs. (monthly) - [CPI: Food](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiufdsl): Food component of CPI, politically sensitive and affects consumer sentiment. (monthly) - [Michigan Inflation Expectations](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mich): University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations, consumer survey measure. (monthly) - [10Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10yie): Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations from TIPS spread. (daily) - [Global Commodity Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pallfnfindexm): IMF global commodity price index, leading indicator of headline inflation. (monthly) - [CPI-U (Not Seasonally Adjusted)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiaucns): Headline Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, NSA; preferred for year-over-year calculations and TIPS contract indexation. (monthly) - [1Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf1yr): Cleveland Fed 1-year expected inflation rate from a no-arbitrage term-structure model. (monthly) - [2Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf2yr): Cleveland Fed 2-year expected inflation rate from a no-arbitrage term-structure model. (monthly) - [5Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf5yr): Cleveland Fed 5-year expected inflation rate; medium-horizon market-implied anchor. (monthly) - [10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf10yr): Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation rate; long-horizon anchor used in DSGE and nowcasting work. (monthly) - [30Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf30yr): Cleveland Fed 30-year expected inflation rate; very long-horizon anchor for insurance and pension liability modeling. (monthly) - [Mexico Headline CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/banxico-headline-cpi): Mexico headline CPI year-over-year (INPC general), published monthly by INEGI and mirrored via Banxico SIE series SP74660. (monthly) ### International Inflation - [Canada CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cancpiallminmei): Canada consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); Bank of Canada's 2% target. (monthly) - [Canada CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01cam659n): Canada consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Switzerland CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01chm659n): Switzerland consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Korea CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01krm659n): South Korea consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [India CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01inm659n): India consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Mexico CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01mxm659n): Mexico consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Brazil CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01brm659n): Brazil consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [China CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/chncpiallminmei): China consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100). (monthly) - [Sweden CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01sem659n): Sweden consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Poland CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01plm659n): Poland consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [South Africa CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01zam659n): South Africa consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Turkey CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01trm659n): Turkey consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) - [Israel CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01ilm659n): Israel consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly) ### International Labor - [Japan Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttjpm156s): Japan harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly) - [Canada Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttcam156s): Canada harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly) - [Australia Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttaum156s): Australia harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly) - [Korea Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttkrm156s): South Korea harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly) ### International Rates - [Germany 10Y Bund](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01dem156n): Germany 10-year Bund yield, Eurozone risk-free reference. (monthly) - [France 10Y OAT](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01frm156n): France 10-year OAT yield, key input to OAT-Bund spread. (monthly) - [Spain 10Y SPGB](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01esm156n): Spain 10-year SPGB yield, key input to SPGB-Bund spread. (monthly) - [Netherlands 10Y](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01nlm156n): Netherlands 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Japan 10Y JGB Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01jpm156n): Japan 10-year JGB yield, key gauge of BoJ YCC exit regime. (monthly) - [Japan 3M Interbank Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01jpm156n): Japan 3-month interbank rate (TIBOR). (monthly) - [Canada 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01cam156n): Canada 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Canada 3M Interbank](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01cam156n): Canada 3-month interbank rate (CDOR). (monthly) - [Australia 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01aum156n): Australia 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Australia 3M Interbank](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01aum156n): Australia 3-month interbank rate (BBSW). (monthly) - [Switzerland 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01chm156n): Switzerland 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Switzerland 3M Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01chm156n): Switzerland 3-month interbank rate (SARON historical). (monthly) - [Korea 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01krm156n): South Korea 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [India 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/indirltlt01stm): India 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Mexico 3M Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01mxm156n): Mexico 3-month money-market rate (TIIE). (monthly) - [NZ 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01nzm156n): New Zealand 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [China 3M Interbank](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01cnm156n): China 3-month interbank rate (SHIBOR). (monthly) - [Sweden 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01sem156n): Sweden 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Norway 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01nom156n): Norway 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Denmark 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01dkm156n): Denmark 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Poland 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01plm156n): Poland 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [South Africa 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01zam156n): South Africa 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Israel 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01ilm156n): Israel 10-year government bond yield. (monthly) - [Chile Short-Term Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irstci01clm156n): Chile short-term interbank rate (OECD MEI). (monthly) ### Labor Market - [Unemployment Rate (U3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/unrate): Headline unemployment rate, percentage of the labor force without jobs. (monthly) - [Underemployment Rate (U6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/u6rate): Broadest unemployment measure including discouraged and part-time workers. (monthly) - [Initial Jobless Claims](https://convextrade.com/metrics/icsa): Weekly first-time unemployment insurance claims, the highest-frequency labor indicator. (weekly) - [Initial Claims 4-Week MA](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ic4wsa): Smoothed jobless claims average, removes weekly volatility. (weekly) - [Continued Claims](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ccsa): Ongoing unemployment insurance claims, measures difficulty of finding new work. (weekly) - [Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/metrics/payems): Total nonfarm employment, the single most-watched monthly jobs number. (monthly) - [JOLTS Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsjol): Job openings from the JOLTS survey, measures labor demand. (monthly) - [JOLTS Quit Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsqur): Voluntary quit rate, high quits = worker confidence, low = fear. (monthly) - [Avg Weekly Hours (Private)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/awhaetp): Average weekly hours worked in the private sector, a leading employment indicator. (monthly) - [Avg Hourly Earnings (Private)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ces0500000003): Average hourly earnings for all private employees, wage growth tracker. (monthly) - [Labor Force Participation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/civpart): Labor force participation rate, share of working-age population in the labor force. (monthly) - [Employment-Population Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/emratio): Share of working-age population that is employed, avoids LFPR distortions. (monthly) - [JOLTS Job Openings Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsjor): Job openings as a share of total employment plus openings, a leading wage-pressure gauge. (monthly) - [JOLTS Hires Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtshir): Monthly hires as a percent of employment, captures labor-market churn. (monthly) - [JOLTS Hires Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtshil): Total monthly hires across the US economy, the absolute level companion to the hires rate. (monthly) - [JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsldr): Involuntary separations as a percent of employment, rises sharply ahead of recessions. (monthly) - [JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsldl): Monthly count of layoffs and discharges across the US economy. (monthly) - [JOLTS Quits Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsqul): Monthly count of voluntary quits, the level companion to the better-known quits rate. (monthly) - [JOLTS Total Separations Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtstsr): Total separations rate combining quits, layoffs, and other exits. (monthly) - [JOLTS Total Separations Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtstsl): Total separations level combining quits, layoffs, and other outflows. (monthly) - [Unemployed 5 to 14 Weeks](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uemp5to14): Short-duration unemployment cohort, signals early-cycle labor churn. (monthly) - [Unemployed 15 to 26 Weeks](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uemp15t26): Medium-duration unemployment, bridging fresh layoffs and long-term joblessness. (monthly) - [Unemployed 27+ Weeks (Long-Term)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uemp27ov): Long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more), a classic late-cycle scarring indicator. (monthly) - [Marginally Attached](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns13023621): Workers who want a job but have stopped actively searching, counted inside U5 and U6. (monthly) - [Part-Time for Economic Reasons](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns12032194): Involuntary part-time workers, a core U6 component that spikes in downturns. (monthly) - [Nonfarm Productivity](https://convextrade.com/metrics/prs85006092): Nonfarm business productivity growth (output per hour), sets the non-inflationary wage ceiling. (quarterly) - [Avg Hourly Earnings (Production)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ahetpi): Average hourly earnings of private production and non-supervisory workers, the wage series the Fed highlights. (monthly) - [Unemployment Rate (White)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000003): Unemployment rate for white workers, baseline reference for demographic comparisons. (monthly) - [Unemployment Rate (Black)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000006): Unemployment rate for Black or African American workers, historically roughly twice the white rate. (monthly) - [Unemployment Rate (Hispanic)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000009): Unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers, sensitive to construction and hospitality cycles. (monthly) - [Unemployment Rate (Asian)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000025): Unemployment rate for Asian workers, typically lowest of the major tracked cohorts. (monthly) - [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker — Overall](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-overall): Median 12-month percent change in hourly wages for workers who appeared in CPS twelve months apart; 3-month moving average. Atlanta Fed's marquee wage-inflation gauge. (monthly) - [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Job Stayers](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-job-stayer): Median wage growth for workers who stayed with the same employer over the 12-month window. (monthly) - [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Job Switchers](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-job-switcher): Median wage growth for workers who changed employers in the 12-month window; the switcher premium (switcher − stayer) is a tight labor-market tell. (monthly) - [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Prime Age (25-54)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-prime-age): Median wage growth for prime-age workers (25-54); filters out retiree re-entry and youth compositional effects. (monthly) ### Latin America FX - [Brazilian Real / US Dollar (PTAX)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bcb-brlusd): Daily USD/BRL PTAX closing rate (BCB reference "venda" quote, SGS series 1). The benchmark for BRL trade and contract settlement. (daily) ### Latin America Inflation - [Brazil CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bracpiallminmei): Brazil consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the BCB's inflation target anchor. (monthly) - [Mexico CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mexcpiallminmei): Mexico consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); Banxico's policy anchor. (monthly) - [Mexico CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-mx): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Mexico (IMF WEO). Banxico targets 3% ±1pp. (annual) - [Brazil CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-br): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Brazil (IMF WEO). BCB targets 3% with a ±1.5pp tolerance. (annual) - [Argentina CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-ar): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Argentina (IMF WEO). Hyperinflation regime; triple-digit readings in 2023-24 during stabilization. (annual) ### Latin America Rates - [Brazil Selic Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bcb-selic): Banco Central do Brasil target Selic rate, the overnight policy rate set by the Copom (SGS series 432). (daily) - [Mexico Overnight Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/banxico-policy-rate): Banxico target for the interbank overnight rate, set at the biweekly Junta de Gobierno meeting (SIE series SF61745). Mexico’s policy rate. (daily) ### Liquidity - [Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/metrics/walcl): Total assets held by the Federal Reserve, the QE/QT gauge. (weekly) - [Overnight Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rrpontsyd): ON RRP facility balance, liquidity buffer absorbing QT before reserves drain. (daily) - [Treasury General Account](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wtregen): Treasury's cash balance at the Fed, drawdowns inject liquidity into markets. (weekly) - [M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m2sl): Broad money supply including cash, checking, savings, and money market funds. (monthly) - [Total Reserves](https://convextrade.com/metrics/totresns): Total reserves of depository institutions at the Federal Reserve. (monthly) - [Monetary Base](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bogmbase): Currency in circulation plus bank reserves, the Fed's narrowest money measure. (monthly) - [Reserve Balances at Fed](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wresbal): Bank reserve balances deposited at the Federal Reserve, critical QT floor indicator. (weekly) - [Credit Card Loans (Banks)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cclacbw027sbog): Outstanding credit card loans at all commercial banks. (weekly) - [Convex Net Liquidity Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_cnli): Convex Net Liquidity Index, Fed Balance Sheet minus Reverse Repo minus TGA. Measures actual liquidity flowing into markets. (daily) - [Japan Monetary Base](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boj-monetary-base): BoJ monetary base (banknotes plus coin plus BoJ current-account balances), in 100 million yen. Core liquidity gauge for the yen system (series MA02'MABS1AA000). (monthly) - [BoJ-held JGB Aggregate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boj-jgb-holdings): Aggregate Japanese Government Bonds held on the BoJ balance sheet, in 100 million yen (series BS01'MABSPR01). Tracks YCC unwind and QT progress. (monthly) - [SNB Currency Reserves (CHF)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/snb-fx-reserves): Total currency reserves held by the SNB in millions of Swiss francs (cube snbbipo, summed across asset classes). Tracks FX intervention and reserve-diversification moves. (monthly) ### Margin & Positioning - [FINRA Margin Debt](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-margin-debt): FINRA aggregate debit balances in customer securities margin accounts; the canonical aggregate margin-debt series, a widely watched retail leverage proxy. (monthly) - [FINRA Free Credit (Cash Accounts)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-free-credit-cash): FINRA free credit balances held in customer cash accounts; liquid dry-powder sitting in brokerage accounts. (monthly) - [FINRA Free Credit (Margin Accounts)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-free-credit-margin): FINRA free credit balances held in customer securities margin accounts; the complement to margin debt within leveraged accounts. (monthly) - [FINRA Net Margin Debt](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-net-margin-debt): Margin debt minus customer free credit balances (cash plus margin); the clean net-leverage series historically used to time equity bubble peaks. (monthly) ### Money Market Fund Flows - [Money Market Fund Assets (Total)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-total): Total US money market fund assets published weekly by the Investment Company Institute; the headline cash-parking series, used to track rotations between risk assets and cash yields. (weekly) - [MMF Assets (Retail)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-retail): Retail investor share of total money market fund assets; retail flows track household cash allocation responses to rate changes with a lag. (weekly) - [MMF Assets (Institutional)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-institutional): Institutional share of total money market fund assets; corporate treasurers and large asset allocators move faster than retail and dominate quarter-end cash cycles. (weekly) - [MMF Assets (Government Funds)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-govt): Money market funds holding Treasury bills, repos, and government agency paper; the largest MMF bucket and a read on Treasury demand at the short end. (weekly) - [MMF Assets (Prime Funds)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-prime): Prime money market funds holding commercial paper, certificates of deposit, and corporate short-term debt; the 2016 reform drove mass conversions out of prime into government funds, so trends here are structural. (weekly) - [MMF Assets (Tax-Exempt Funds)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-tax-exempt): Tax-exempt money market funds holding short-term municipal paper; the smallest MMF bucket, volumes are driven by tax-bracket arbitrage versus the after-tax yield on taxable funds. (weekly) ### Money Supply - [M1 Money Stock](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m1sl): M1: currency in circulation plus demand deposits and other liquid deposits, the narrowest operational money aggregate. (monthly) - [M1 Velocity](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m1v): Ratio of nominal GDP to M1; falling velocity signals hoarded liquidity, rising velocity signals accelerating spending. (quarterly) - [M2 Velocity](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m2v): Nominal GDP divided by M2, the standard quantity-theory gauge of how fast money circulates through the economy. (quarterly) - [Nonborrowed Reserves](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nonborres): Reserves held by depository institutions minus borrowings from the Federal Reserve; a classic bank-liquidity stress gauge. (monthly) ### OECD Composite Leading Indicators - [US OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-us): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United States; amplitude-adjusted monthly index normalized to 100 on its long-run trend. (monthly) - [Canada OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-ca): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Canada; amplitude-adjusted monthly index normalized to 100 on trend. Tracks commodity-cycle turning points in tandem with US. (monthly) - [Mexico OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-mx): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Mexico; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Mexican manufacturing PMIs feed heavily into this composite. (monthly) - [Brazil OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-br): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Brazil; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Commodity export prices and domestic credit are dominant inputs. (monthly) - [UK OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-gb): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United Kingdom; monthly amplitude-adjusted index normalized to 100 on its long-run trend. (monthly) - [Germany OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-de): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Germany; the Eurozone turning-point bellwether. Industrial orders and Ifo are heavy inputs. (monthly) - [France OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-fr): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for France; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. INSEE business climate and industrial order books feed the series. (monthly) - [Italy OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-it): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Italy; monthly amplitude-adjusted index, historically the most volatile G7 CLI. (monthly) - [Spain OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-es): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Spain; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Tourism flows and construction order books drive turning points. (monthly) - [Japan OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-jp): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Japan; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Tankan surveys and shipment indices are heavy inputs. (monthly) - [China OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-cn): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Power generation and freight volumes are among the core components. (monthly) - [India OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-in): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for India; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. PMI and capital-goods output drive the composite. (monthly) - [South Korea OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-kr): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for South Korea; export orders and semiconductor inventories dominate the composite. (monthly) - [Australia OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-au): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Australia; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Resource exports and housing starts are major inputs. (monthly) - [Indonesia OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-id): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Indonesia; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. ASEAN bellwether composite tied to commodity and manufacturing flows. (monthly) - [South Africa OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-za): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for South Africa; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Mining output and power availability weigh heavily. (monthly) - [Turkey OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-tr): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Turkey; monthly amplitude-adjusted index, highly sensitive to lira swings and external demand. (monthly) - [G7 OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-g7): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Group of Seven (US, Canada, Japan, UK, Germany, France, Italy). The advanced-economy turning-point gauge. (monthly) - [G20 OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-g20): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Group of Twenty. The broadest CLI aggregate, covering ~85% of global GDP. (monthly) - [Euro Area 4 OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-g4e): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the euro-area G4 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). Captures ~75% of Eurozone GDP in a single series. (monthly) - [NAFTA OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-nafta): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across NAFTA / USMCA (US, Canada, Mexico). Cross-border manufacturing cycle turning-point gauge. (monthly) - [Major 5 Asia OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-a5m): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Major 5 Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea). Asia-Pacific turning-point gauge. (monthly) ### Primary Dealer - [Primary Dealer Net Positions — US Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-treasuries): Aggregate net positions of primary dealers in US Treasury securities (bills + all coupon buckets + TIPS + FRN), USD millions, from NY Fed PD stats. Positive = net long dealer inventory. (weekly) - [Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-agency-mbs): Aggregate net positions of primary dealers in agency MBS (pass-through + non-pass-through), USD millions. (weekly) - [Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency Debt](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-agency-debt): Net positions of primary dealers in federal agency non-MBS debt (FNMA, FHLMC, FHLB debentures), USD millions. (weekly) - [Primary Dealer Net Positions — Corporate Bonds](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-corp): Net positions of primary dealers in corporate bonds (investment grade + high yield), USD millions. (weekly) - [Primary Dealer Fails to Deliver — Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-fails-to-deliver): Cumulative weekly settlement fails to deliver US Treasury securities across primary dealers, USD millions. Sustained spikes signal collateral scarcity or repo dislocation. (weekly) - [Primary Dealer Fails to Receive — Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-fails-to-receive): Cumulative weekly settlement fails to receive US Treasury securities across primary dealers, USD millions. (weekly) - [Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-fails-total): Sum of weekly Treasury fails-to-deliver plus fails-to-receive across primary dealers, USD millions. Standard stress gauge for Treasury market plumbing; 2008 and Mar-2020 episodes saw multi-trillion-dollar spikes. (weekly) ### Recession Indicators - [Sahm Rule Recession Indicator](https://convextrade.com/metrics/sahmrealtime): Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970. (monthly) - [Leading Index for US](https://convextrade.com/metrics/usslind): Conference Board Leading Economic Index, composite of 10 leading indicators. (monthly) - [OECD Composite Leading Indicator](https://convextrade.com/metrics/usalolitonostsam): OECD CLI for the US, designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle. (monthly) - [Convex Recession Probability](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_crpi): Convex Recession Probability Index, composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale. (daily) - [Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/neworder): Manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft, core capex proxy. (monthly) - [Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bbkmleix): Brave-Butters-Kelley dynamic factor leading index, a Chicago Fed academic composite of ~500 macro series. (monthly) - [US Recession Probability (Smoothed)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/recprousm156n): Chauvet-Piger smoothed US recession probability from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model; probabilities above 80% reliably coincide with NBER-dated recessions. (monthly) ### Sentiment & Positioning - [Convex Risk Appetite Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_crai): Convex Risk Appetite Index, cross-asset risk appetite from 5 ETF price ratio z-scores (IWM/SPY, HYG/LQD, XLY/XLP, EEM/EFA, KRE/SPY). 0-100 scale. (daily) - [Convex Narrative Velocity Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_nvi): Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale. (daily) - [BTC Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-btc-net-spec): CME Bitcoin futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly) - [BTC Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-btc-oi): CME Bitcoin futures total open interest. (weekly) - [Gold Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-gc-net-spec): COMEX Gold futures net speculative positioning. (weekly) - [Gold Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-gc-oi): COMEX Gold futures total open interest. (weekly) - [WTI Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-wti-net-spec): NYMEX WTI crude net speculative positioning. (weekly) - [WTI Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-wti-oi): NYMEX WTI crude futures total open interest. (weekly) - [S&P 500 Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-es-net-spec): CME E-mini S&P 500 net speculative positioning. (weekly) - [S&P 500 Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-es-oi): CME E-mini S&P 500 futures total open interest. (weekly) - [Copper Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-hg-net-spec): COMEX Copper futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly) - [Copper Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-hg-oi): COMEX Copper futures total open interest. (weekly) - [Euro FX Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-eur-net-spec): CME Euro FX futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly) - [Euro FX Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-eur-oi): CME Euro FX futures total open interest. (weekly) - [Yen Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-jpy-net-spec): CME Japanese Yen futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly) - [Yen Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-jpy-oi): CME Japanese Yen futures total open interest. (weekly) - [Treasury Bond Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zb-net-spec): CBOT US Treasury Bond futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly) - [Treasury Bond Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zb-oi): CBOT US Treasury Bond futures total open interest. (weekly) - [10Y Note Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zn-net-spec): CBOT 10-Year US Treasury Note futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly) - [10Y Note Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zn-oi): CBOT 10-Year US Treasury Note futures total open interest. (weekly) - [Crypto Fear & Greed Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fear-greed): Crypto market fear and greed index (0-100), extreme fear is contrarian bullish. (daily) - [Equity Put/Call Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/put-call-ratio): CBOE total equity put/call ratio, high readings signal fear, low readings signal complacency. (daily) - [BTC Perpetual Funding Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-funding): Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate, positive = longs pay shorts, negative = shorts pay longs. (daily) ### Supply Chain - [NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gscpi): New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, a z-score combining transportation costs and manufacturing PMI delivery times across seven economies. (monthly) ### TIC Foreign Holdings - [Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fdhbfin): Federal debt held by foreign and international investors, the broadest measure of non-US Treasury ownership from FRED. (monthly) - [Japan Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-japan): Japanese holdings of US Treasury securities, the largest single-country foreign holder; a window into BoJ-adjacent reserve management and yen-funding flows. (monthly) - [China Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-china): Mainland Chinese holdings of US Treasury securities; tracked closely as a geopolitical and reserve-diversification signal since the 2018 trade war. (monthly) - [UK Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-uk): United Kingdom holdings of US Treasury securities; a London-based custodial conduit that often understates the underlying owners. (monthly) - [Belgium Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-belgium): Belgian holdings of US Treasury securities; Euroclear-domiciled custody amplifies the apparent holdings well beyond Belgian sovereign accounts. (monthly) - [Luxembourg Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-luxembourg): Luxembourg holdings of US Treasury securities; a fund-domicile hub where mutual-fund ownership inflates reported balances. (monthly) - [Switzerland Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-switzerland): Swiss holdings of US Treasury securities; SNB reserve allocations and private-bank custody combine in this line. (monthly) - [Cayman Islands Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-cayman): Cayman Islands custodial holdings of US Treasury securities; a hedge-fund and SPV reporting domicile, almost entirely a conduit rather than a sovereign holder. (monthly) - [Canada Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-canada): Canadian holdings of US Treasury securities; a mix of BoC reserves and Canadian pension and insurance fixed-income allocations. (monthly) - [Ireland Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-ireland): Irish holdings of US Treasury securities; another fund-domicile conduit similar to Luxembourg. (monthly) - [Taiwan Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-taiwan): Taiwanese holdings of US Treasury securities; CBC FX reserves and Taiwanese life insurer balance sheets dominate the line. (monthly) - [India Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-india): Indian holdings of US Treasury securities; primarily RBI reserve allocations against the rupee. (monthly) - [Hong Kong Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-hong-kong): Hong Kong holdings of US Treasury securities; HKMA reserves and a regional custodial hub serving the Greater China asset community. (monthly) - [Brazil Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-brazil): Brazilian holdings of US Treasury securities; the largest Latin American sovereign holder, dominated by BCB reserves. (monthly) - [Singapore Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-singapore): Singaporean holdings of US Treasury securities; MAS reserves and GIC asset-management positions co-mingle in the published number. (monthly) - [France Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-france): French holdings of US Treasury securities; Banque de France reserves are part of the wider Eurosystem allocation captured under TIC. (monthly) - [Saudi Arabia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-saudi-arabia): Saudi Arabian holdings of US Treasury securities; SAMA reserves backing the riyal-dollar peg form the bulk of the line. (monthly) - [South Korea Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-korea): South Korean holdings of US Treasury securities; BOK reserves dominate, with NPS pension fixed-income exposure adding to the total. (monthly) - [Norway Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-norway): Norwegian holdings of US Treasury securities; the Government Pension Fund Global accounts for most of the line. (monthly) - [Germany Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-germany): German holdings of US Treasury securities; Bundesbank reserves and Eurosystem allocation share with other euro-area participants. (monthly) - [Bermuda Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-bermuda): Bermuda-domiciled holdings of US Treasury securities; reinsurance and captive-insurance balance sheets constitute the bulk. (monthly) - [Netherlands Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-netherlands): Dutch holdings of US Treasury securities; DNB reserves plus large pension-fund fixed-income exposure. (monthly) - [UAE Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-uae): UAE holdings of US Treasury securities; ADIA and other sovereign wealth allocations contribute alongside the central bank. (monthly) - [Australia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-australia): Australian holdings of US Treasury securities; RBA reserves and Future Fund fixed-income exposure together. (monthly) - [Mexico Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-mexico): Mexican holdings of US Treasury securities; Banxico reserves anchored by deep US-Mexico trade integration. (monthly) - [Thailand Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-thailand): Thai holdings of US Treasury securities; Bank of Thailand reserve allocation against baht. (monthly) - [Philippines Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-philippines): Philippine holdings of US Treasury securities; BSP reserve management against peso volatility. (monthly) - [Israel Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-israel): Israeli holdings of US Treasury securities; BoI reserves alongside private institutional balance sheets. (monthly) - [Kuwait Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-kuwait): Kuwaiti holdings of US Treasury securities; KIA sovereign wealth allocation against future-generations mandate. (monthly) - [Iraq Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-iraq): Iraqi holdings of US Treasury securities; CBI reserves linked closely to oil-revenue cycles. (monthly) - [Poland Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-poland): Polish holdings of US Treasury securities; NBP reserve diversification post-2014 Russia incursion. (monthly) - [Spain Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-spain): Spanish holdings of US Treasury securities; small relative to Eurosystem peers, mainly Banco de España allocation. (monthly) - [Italy Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-italy): Italian holdings of US Treasury securities; Banca d'Italia reserves alongside private custody. (monthly) - [Colombia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-colombia): Colombian holdings of US Treasury securities; BanRep reserves backing peso stability. (monthly) - [Sweden Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-sweden): Swedish holdings of US Treasury securities; Riksbank reserves and AP fund pension exposure. (monthly) - [Bahamas Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-bahamas): Bahamas-domiciled holdings of US Treasury securities; principally a hedge-fund custody jurisdiction. (monthly) - [Vietnam Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-vietnam): Vietnamese holdings of US Treasury securities; SBV reserves built up rapidly through trade-surplus accumulation. (monthly) - [Chile Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-chile): Chilean holdings of US Treasury securities; BCCh reserves and the Economic and Social Stabilization Fund's fixed-income allocation. (monthly) - [Peru Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-peru): Peruvian holdings of US Treasury securities; BCRP reserves backing sol-dollar stability. (monthly) - [Turkey Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-turkey): Turkish holdings of US Treasury securities; CBRT reserve composition is a frequently cited geopolitical and lira-stability indicator. (monthly) - [Indonesia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-indonesia): Indonesian holdings of US Treasury securities; BI reserves anchored by commodity export receipts. (monthly) - [South Africa Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-south-africa): South African holdings of US Treasury securities; SARB reserves with structurally smaller balances than Latin American peers. (monthly) - [Russia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-russia): Russian holdings of US Treasury securities; collapsed to near zero after the 2018 sell-off and 2022 sanctions. (monthly) ### TIPS & Breakevens - [7Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii7): Yield on 7-year TIPS, the belly of the real yield curve. (daily) - [20Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii20): Yield on 20-year TIPS, long-duration real rate component. (daily) - [30Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii30): Yield on 30-year TIPS, the longest real yield tenor the Treasury issues. (daily) - [20Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t20yiem): Monthly 20-year breakeven inflation rate, long-horizon market inflation expectations. (monthly) - [30Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t30yiem): Monthly 30-year breakeven inflation rate, the longest-horizon inflation expectation gauge. (monthly) ### Treasury Auctions - [2-Year Note Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 2-Year Note auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly) - [2-Year Note Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 2-Year Note auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly) - [2-Year Note Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 2-Year Note auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly) - [2-Year Note Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 2-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly) - [2-Year Note Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 2-Year Note auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly) - [5-Year Note Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 5-Year Note auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly) - [5-Year Note Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 5-Year Note auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly) - [5-Year Note Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 5-Year Note auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly) - [5-Year Note Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 5-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly) - [5-Year Note Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 5-Year Note auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly) - [10-Year Note Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 10-Year Note auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly) - [10-Year Note Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 10-Year Note auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly) - [10-Year Note Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 10-Year Note auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly) - [10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 10-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly) - [10-Year Note Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 10-Year Note auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly) - [30-Year Bond Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 30-Year Bond auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly) - [30-Year Bond Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 30-Year Bond auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly) - [30-Year Bond Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 30-Year Bond auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly) - [30-Year Bond Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 30-Year Bond auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly) - [30-Year Bond Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 30-Year Bond auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly) - [3-Month Bill Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 3-Month Bill auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (weekly) - [3-Month Bill Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 3-Month Bill auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (weekly) - [3-Month Bill Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 3-Month Bill auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (weekly) - [3-Month Bill Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 3-Month Bill auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (weekly) - [3-Month Bill Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 3-Month Bill auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (weekly) - [6-Month Bill Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 6-Month Bill auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (weekly) - [6-Month Bill Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 6-Month Bill auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (weekly) - [6-Month Bill Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 6-Month Bill auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (weekly) - [6-Month Bill Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 6-Month Bill auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (weekly) - [6-Month Bill Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 6-Month Bill auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (weekly) ### Treasury Operations - [Treasury General Account (Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tga-daily): Treasury General Account closing cash balance from the Daily Treasury Statement; tracks debt-ceiling drawdowns, tax-receipt seasonality, and bill-supply mechanics. (daily) ### Volatility - [VIX Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/vixcls): CBOE Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" measuring S&P 500 expected volatility. (daily) - [CBOE SKEW Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cboe-skew): CBOE SKEW Index measures the perceived probability of a tail event (≥2σ move down) from S&P 500 options pricing; 100 = lognormal, >120 signals growing tail-hedge demand. (daily) - [VVIX (Vol of Vol)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/vvix): CBOE VVIX measures the 30-day expected volatility of VIX itself, derived from VIX options; spikes without VIX rising can signal positioning stress. (daily) ### Yield Curve & Rates - [3-Month Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs3mo): Yield on 3-month US Treasury bill, the shortest benchmark maturity on the curve. (daily) - [1Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs1): Yield on 1-year US Treasury constant maturity securities. (daily) - [2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs2): Yield on 2-year US Treasury, key Fed expectations proxy. (daily) - [5Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs5): Yield on 5-year US Treasury constant maturity securities. (daily) - [10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs10): Yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark. (daily) - [30Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs30): Yield on 30-year US Treasury, long bond benchmark. (daily) - [10Y-2Y Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10y2y): Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, classic recession signal when inverted. (daily) - [10Y-3M Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10y3m): Spread between 10-year Treasury and 3-month T-bill, Fed's preferred recession indicator. (daily) - [5Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii5): 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield, real cost of capital. (daily) - [10Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii10): 10-year TIPS yield, key driver for gold, crypto, and long-duration assets. (daily) - [10Y Term Premium (ACM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/threefytp10): Adrian-Crump-Moench 10Y term premium, compensation for duration risk. (daily) - [SOFR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/sofr): Secured Overnight Financing Rate, replacement for LIBOR, reflects overnight repo rates. (daily) - [Effective Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/effr): Effective federal funds rate, the actual rate banks charge each other overnight. (daily) - [Fed Funds Target (Upper)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfedtaru): Upper bound of the FOMC target range for the federal funds rate. (daily) - [Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedfunds): Monthly average federal funds rate, the primary tool of US monetary policy. (monthly) - [Bank Prime Loan Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dprime): Prime rate charged by commercial banks, benchmark for consumer and business loans. (daily) - [5Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t5yie): 5-year breakeven inflation rate, market-implied inflation expectations. (daily) - [5Y5Y Forward Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t5yifr): 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate, the Fed's preferred anchoring metric. (daily) - [1-Month Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs1mo): One-month T-bill yield, the shortest on-the-run Treasury tenor. (daily) - [6-Month Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs6mo): Six-month T-bill yield, a reliable proxy for expected policy rate over the coming half year. (daily) - [3Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs3): Yield on 3-year US Treasury constant maturity securities. (daily) - [7Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs7): Yield on 7-year US Treasury constant maturity securities, key mortgage-duration tenor. (daily) - [20Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs20): Yield on 20-year US Treasury, reintroduced in 2020 to anchor the long end of the curve. (daily) - [5Y Treasury minus Fed Funds](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t5yff): Spread of 5-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; tracks market-implied Fed path vs short end. (daily) - [10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10yff): Spread of 10-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; an alternative yield-curve recession gauge with longer record. (daily) - [Canada Overnight Rate Target](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boc-overnight-rate): Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Rate, the primary policy rate set by the BoC Governing Council (Valet series V39079). (daily) - [Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boc-goc-10y): 10-year benchmark Government of Canada bond yield (Valet series V39055). The Canadian dollar-denominated long-rate anchor. (daily) ## What-Happens-When Scenarios (105 conditional scenarios) - [What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts): What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal explained with live data. - [What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30): What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions, and contrarian opportunities. - [What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates): What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles. - [What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-raises-rates): What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housing, and crypto explained. - [What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cpi-surprises-hot): What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portfolio positioning explained. - [What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-triggers): What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it means for your portfolio. - [What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/hy-spreads-blow-out): What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality explained with live data. - [What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply): What happens when the US dollar surges? Impact on emerging markets, commodities, corporate earnings, and global financial stability. - [What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-price-spikes): What happens when oil prices spike? Inflation fears, consumer squeeze, recession risk, and the complex impact on stocks, bonds, and the dollar. - [What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/housing-market-crashes): What happens when US home prices crash? The wealth effect, banking stress, and cascading economic impacts of a housing downturn explained. - [What Happens When Unemployment Rises?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/unemployment-rises): What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback loop explained. - [What Happens When Gold Surges?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-surges): What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio implications explained. - [What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-crashes): What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into traditional markets. - [What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/treasury-auction-fails): What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the global financial system. - [What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/inflation-expectations-de-anchor): What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral. - [What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-pauses-rate-hikes): What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, and what comes next after the final hike. - [What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-crashes): What happens to global markets when the US dollar drops sharply? Impact on commodities, emerging markets, US equities, and the global financial system. - [What Happens When Copper Surges?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/copper-surges): What happens when copper prices surge? Why "Dr. Copper" is the economy's best diagnostician, and what it means for equities, inflation, and global growth. - [What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sp500-drops-20-percent): What happens when the stock market enters a bear market? Historical patterns, recovery timelines, asset class reactions, and what separates crashes that recover quickly from those that grind lower. - [What Happens When Gold Hits $3,000?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-hits-3000): What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications for currencies, bonds, equities, and inflation. - [What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/initial-claims-spike): What happens when weekly jobless claims surge? The highest-frequency recession indicator, what levels matter, and how markets respond to rising layoffs. - [What Happens When Oil Drops Below $50?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-drops-below-50): What happens when crude oil crashes below $50? Deflationary signals, energy sector carnage, consumer benefits, and geopolitical implications. - [What Happens When the VIX Drops Below 12?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-drops-below-12): What happens when market volatility hits extreme lows? The risks of complacency, historical parallels, and how to position when fear disappears from markets. - [What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-rates-go-negative): What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice when holding cash guarantees losing purchasing power. - [What Happens When Consumer Confidence Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/consumer-confidence-collapses): What happens when consumer sentiment craters? Does it actually predict spending? Historical analysis of confidence crashes and what they mean for markets. - [What Happens When the Yield Curve Steepens Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-steepens): What happens when the yield curve steepens rapidly? Bull steepener vs bear steepener, recession timing, and the implications for banks, bonds, and equities. - [What Happens When Credit Spreads Hit Record Tights?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/credit-spreads-compress): What happens when high yield credit spreads compress to historically tight levels? The risks of complacency in corporate credit, what it means for risk appetite, and how to position. - [What Happens When Bitcoin Halves?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-halves): What happens to Bitcoin after a halving? Historical price cycles, supply shock mechanics, miner economics, and how halving interacts with macro conditions. - [What Happens When Mortgage Rates Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/mortgage-rates-spike): What happens when 30-year mortgage rates spike? Impact on housing affordability, homebuilders, banks, consumer spending, and the broader economy. - [What Happens When the Trade Deficit Widens Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/trade-deficit-widens): What happens when the US trade deficit surges? Dollar implications, tariff risk, manufacturing impact, and what it signals about relative global economic strength. - [What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-lending-tightens): What happens when banks pull back on lending? How tighter credit standards predict recessions, default waves, and the transmission from Wall Street to Main Street. - [What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/m2-contracts): What happens when the money supply shrinks? Monetarist deflation fears, historical rarity, and implications for asset prices, inflation, and economic growth. - [What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/china-devalues-yuan): What happens when China devalues its currency? Global deflation export, emerging market contagion, commodity impact, and US equity market reactions. - [What Happens When ISM Manufacturing Drops Below 45?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/ism-manufacturing-below-45): What happens when the manufacturing sector enters deep contraction? Historical recession correlation, supply chain effects, and market reactions to collapsing factory output. - [What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/financial-conditions-tighten): What happens when the Chicago Fed NFCI signals tight financial conditions? How credit conditions transmit through the economy and what it means for every asset class. - [What Happens When Breakeven Inflation Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/breakeven-inflation-crashes): What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals a deflationary spiral that changes the playbook for every asset. - [What Happens When the Savings Rate Hits Zero?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/savings-rate-hits-zero): What happens when Americans stop saving? The consumer spending cliff, credit card debt explosion, and what it means when the savings buffer is gone. - [What Happens When Speculative Positioning Hits Extremes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/extreme-speculative-positioning): What happens when futures market positioning hits extreme levels? Contrarian signals, crowded trade risks, and how CFTC data helps identify turning points. - [What Happens When Emerging Market Currencies Crash?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/em-currency-crisis): What happens when emerging market currencies collapse? Contagion risk, capital flight, commodity impact, and whether EM crises spill over to US markets. - [What Happens When Natural Gas Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/natural-gas-spikes): What happens when natural gas prices spike? Winter heating costs, electricity prices, fertilizer costs, and the cascading economic effects of America's most volatile commodity. - [What Happens When GDP Contracts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gdp-contracts): What happens to markets, policy, and the economy when real GDP contracts? Historical playbook for recession quarters, with current data. - [What Happens When the Sahm Rule Exceeds 1.0?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-exceeds-1): The Sahm Rule triggers recession alerts when unemployment rises 0.5 points. What happens when it exceeds 1.0, signaling a deepening downturn? - [What Happens When the Leading Economic Index Turns Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/leading-index-turns-negative): The Leading Economic Index anticipates recessions by 6-12 months. What happens when its six-month change turns negative, warning of contraction ahead? - [What Happens When U-6 Unemployment Exceeds 10%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/u6-exceeds-10): U-6 captures broader labor underutilization beyond the headline rate. What happens when it exceeds 10%, signaling widespread labor stress? - [What Happens When Capacity Utilization Falls Below 75%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/capacity-utilization-below-75): Industrial capacity utilization below 75% signals excess factory slack. What happens to inflation, earnings, and policy at these levels? - [What Happens When Core PCE Exceeds 4%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/core-pce-exceeds-4): Core PCE above 4% represents severe Fed target overshoot. What happens to rates, markets, and the Fed when the preferred inflation gauge runs double target? - [What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates to Zero?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-funds-reach-zero): Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) marks extreme monetary easing. What happens to markets, saving, and the economy when the Fed takes policy rates to zero? - [What Happens When the 10Y Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/10y-exceeds-5-percent): 10-year Treasury yields above 5% represent extreme tightening of financial conditions. What happens to equities, housing, and the economy at these levels? - [What Happens When SOFR Spikes Above Fed Funds?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sofr-funding-spike): SOFR spikes signal acute funding stress in Treasury repo markets. What happens when overnight funding rates rise above the Fed target? - [What Happens When Investment Grade Spreads Compress Below 100 bps?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/ig-spreads-compress): IG corporate spreads below 100 bps signal credit-market complacency. What happens when investors accept minimal premium over Treasuries for corporate credit? - [What Happens When Credit Card Delinquency Exceeds 5%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cc-delinquency-exceeds-5): Credit card delinquency above 5% signals acute consumer stress. What happens to retailers, banks, and the consumer economy at these levels? - [What Happens When Commercial & Industrial Loans Contract?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/business-loans-contract): Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loan contraction signals bank credit retrenchment. What happens to growth, jobs, and investment when business credit shrinks? - [What Happens When DXY Hits 120?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dxy-hits-120): Extreme dollar strength creates global stress. What happens when the broad dollar index hits multi-decade highs, pressuring emerging markets and commodities? - [What Happens When the Euro Hits Parity with the Dollar?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/euro-hits-parity): EUR/USD parity signals extreme dollar strength and European economic stress. What happens to European equities, ECB policy, and global markets? - [What Happens When USD/JPY Exceeds 160?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yen-weakens-past-160): Extreme yen weakness forces BoJ intervention decisions. What happens to Japanese equities, global carry trades, and Asian markets? - [What Happens When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-silver-ratio-extreme): Gold-silver ratio above 90 signals industrial or financial stress. What happens when gold dramatically outpaces silver, a classic late-cycle warning? - [What Happens When the Copper-Gold Ratio Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/copper-gold-ratio-collapses): Copper-gold ratio collapse signals growth concerns and is often called "Dr. Copper's recession warning". What happens when the industrial-to-monetary metals ratio crashes? - [What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-hits-100k): Bitcoin above $100,000 marks a major psychological milestone. What happens to crypto markets, institutional adoption, and traditional finance at this level? - [What Happens When Small Caps Outperform Large Caps?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/small-caps-outperform): What happens when IWM beats SPY by 10%+? Fed-pivot rotation, regional banks (KRE) leading, Russell 2000 historically up 20-40% during 2-4 year cycles. - [What Happens When the Magnificent 7 Exceeds 30% of S&P 500?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/magnificent-7-dominates): Extreme mega-cap concentration creates fragility. What happens when the Magnificent 7 (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA) represents over 30% of the index? - [What Happens When 30Y Mortgage Rates Exceed 8%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/mortgage-rate-exceeds-8): 30Y mortgage rates above 8% freeze the housing market. What happens to home sales, builders, and housing affordability at multi-decade rate highs? - [What Happens When the Put-Call Ratio Spikes Above 1.2?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/put-call-ratio-spikes): Put-call ratios above 1.2 signal extreme fear and hedging demand. What happens when put options demand dramatically exceeds call options? - [What Happens When Fear & Greed Index Hits Extreme Greed?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fear-greed-extreme-greed): Extreme greed readings signal euphoria and contrarian sell signals. What happens when sentiment indicators hit maximum optimism? - [What Happens When the Convex Recession Probability Index Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-recession-index-spikes): What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicators, yield curve, credit spreads, and labor data. - [What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-liquidity-index-contracts): What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus RRP falls. - [What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-risk-appetite-collapses): What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call ratios, and positioning. - [What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/nonfarm-payrolls-negative): What happens when Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) turn negative? Recession confirmation, Fed response, and historical market reactions to month-over-month job losses. - [What Happens When Job Openings Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/job-openings-collapse): What happens when JOLTS job openings collapse? Labor market weakness, Fed response, and implications for wage growth and consumer spending. - [What Happens When the Quits Rate Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/quits-rate-collapses): What happens when the JOLTS quits rate collapses below 2.0%? Loss of worker confidence, wage growth deceleration, and recession risk implications. - [What Happens When the Labor Force Participation Rate Drops?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/participation-rate-drops): What happens when the labor force participation rate drops sharply? Implications for structural growth, unemployment measurement, and Fed policy. - [What Happens When Average Weekly Hours Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/weekly-hours-collapse): What happens when weekly hours fall below 34.0? Pre-layoff labor signal: SPY estimates compress, XLY underperforms, retail sales decelerate 2-3pp YoY. - [What Happens When Continuing Jobless Claims Surge?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/continuing-claims-surge): What happens when continuing unemployment claims surge above 2.0M? Signal that unemployed workers are having trouble finding new jobs. - [What Happens When Real GDP Turns Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-gdp-negative): What happens when real GDP contracts? Recession definition, Fed response, and historical market behavior during negative growth quarters. - [What Happens When Wage Growth Accelerates Above 5%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/wage-growth-accelerates): What happens when average hourly earnings accelerate above 5% year-over-year? Fed response, inflation implications, and market reactions to wage pressure. - [What Happens When Energy CPI Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/energy-cpi-spikes): What happens when energy CPI spikes 20%+ year-over-year? Consumer spending impact, inflation expectations, and recession risk from energy shocks. - [What Happens When Food Inflation Surges Above 10%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/food-inflation-surges): What happens when food CPI surges above 10%? Consumer sentiment impact, political consequences, and recession risk from food inflation. - [What Happens When Shelter CPI Peaks?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/shelter-cpi-peaks): What happens when shelter CPI peaks and begins decelerating? Disinflation implications, Fed response, and market reactions to housing cost relief. - [What Happens When PPI Turns Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/ppi-deflates): What happens when Producer Price Index turns negative? Deflation risk, margin implications, and the leading signal for CPI disinflation. - [What Happens When Fed Funds Rate Exceeds 6%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-funds-exceed-6): What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents from restrictive policy. - [What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/30y-yields-surge): What happens when 30-year Treasury yields surge above 5%? Bond market stress, fiscal concerns, and equity multiple compression. - [What Happens When 10-Year Real Yields Turn Positive?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-yields-turn-positive): What happens when 10-year real yields turn positive after a prolonged negative period? Impact on gold, tech stocks, and risk assets. - [What Happens When the Fed Reverse Repo Facility Drains to Zero?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/rrp-drains-to-zero): What happens when the Fed RRP facility drains? Liquidity implications, money market dynamics, and impact on bank reserves. - [What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-balance-sheet-expands): What happens when the Fed restarts balance sheet expansion (QE)? Risk asset response, inflation implications, and historical precedents. - [What Happens When Bank Reserves Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-reserves-collapse): What happens when bank reserves fall below $3T? Repo stress (SOFR +50-300bp), risk-off in SPY (5-15% drops), and potential Fed pivot back to QE. - [What Happens When the Treasury General Account Drains?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/treasury-general-account-drains): What happens when the Treasury General Account (TGA) drains? Liquidity injection effects, risk asset response, and debt ceiling implications. - [What Happens When Bank Lending Standards Tighten Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-credit-standards-tighten): What happens when banks sharply tighten lending standards? Credit contraction effects, business investment decline, and recession risk. - [What Happens When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/credit-card-delinquencies-spike): What happens when credit card delinquencies cross 3.5%? Consumer-cycle stress: XLY underperforms, regional banks (KRE) take hits, TLT bid on Fed-cut bets. - [What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/china-yuan-devalues): What happens when China devalues the yuan beyond 7.5? Global deflation impulse, emerging market stress, and US trade implications. - [What Happens When the Japanese Yen Weakens Past 160?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/japan-yen-crisis): What happens when USDJPY breaks 160? BoJ intervention risk, carry-trade unwinds (Aug 2024 took S&P -7% and QQQ -10% in days), global VIX spikes. - [What Happens When Natural Gas Prices Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/natural-gas-collapses): What happens when natural gas prices collapse below $2? Inflation relief, energy sector stress, and producer bankruptcy risk. - [What Happens When Oil Drops Below $30?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-drops-below-30): What happens when WTI crude drops below $30? Energy (XLE) loses 30-50%, HY energy spreads blow out, 5Y breakevens fall 50-100bp, XLY benefits. - [What Happens When Copper Surges to All-Time Highs?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/copper-surges-to-record): What happens when copper reaches new all-time highs? Economic signal, inflation implications, and electrification demand drivers. - [What Happens When Defensive Sectors Lead the Market?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/defensive-sectors-lead): What happens when staples (XLP) sharply outperform discretionary (XLY)? Recession signal, defensive positioning, and sector rotation implications. - [What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/regional-banks-stress): What happens when regional bank stocks (KRE) drop sharply? Deposit flight risk, commercial real estate exposure, and Fed response. - [What Happens When Home Builder Stocks Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/home-builders-collapse): What happens when home builder stocks (XHB) collapse? Housing demand destruction, recession signals, and Fed rate implications. - [What Happens When Retail Sales Contract?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/retail-sales-contract): What happens when retail sales contract for 3+ consecutive months? Consumer weakness signal, recession confirmation, and retail sector impact. - [What Happens When Durable Goods Orders Plummet?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/durable-goods-plummet): What happens when durable goods orders plummet? Capex signal, manufacturing weakness, and investment cycle implications. - [What Happens When Housing Starts Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/housing-starts-collapse): What happens when housing starts collapse below 1.1M? Housing cycle bottom signals, construction employment impact, and broader economic effects. - [What Happens When Semiconductors Rally Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/semiconductors-rally): What happens when semiconductors (SMH) sharply outperform? AI investment cycle, global economic implications, and tech leadership signals. - [What Happens When Corporate Profits Peak?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/corporate-profits-peak): What happens when corporate profits peak and begin declining? Earnings recession signal, equity market implications, and investment cycle impact. - [What Happens When Industrial Production Declines?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/industrial-production-declines): What happens when industrial production declines for multiple months? Manufacturing recession signals, cyclical sector impact, and GDP implications. - [What Happens When the Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/inventory-to-sales-spikes): What happens when business inventories rise sharply relative to sales? Destocking signal, production cuts, and recession implications. - [What Happens When Real Personal Income Declines?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/personal-income-declines): What happens when real disposable personal income declines? Consumer spending implications, savings rate changes, and recession dynamics. - [What Happens When European Stocks Outperform?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/european-stocks-rally): What happens when European stocks sharply outperform US equities? Sector rotation, currency implications, and relative valuation dynamics. - [What Happens When VSTOXX European Volatility Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vstoxx-european-vol-spikes): What happens when VSTOXX European volatility exceeds 35? European stress signal, global spillover risk, and ECB policy implications. ## Country Profiles (40 countries) ### Africa - [South Africa](https://convextrade.com/countries/za): South African Reserve Bank (SARB), South African Rand (ZAR), GDP rank #41, next SARB decision 2026-05-28 (Cautious easing path; ZAR volatility the binding constraint) Themes: Eskom loadshedding impact; GNU coalition policy; Structural unemployment; Rand carry dynamics; PGM mining exports Watch: SARB repo rate; USD/ZAR; South Africa CPI; Eskom EAF availability; JALSH index - [Egypt](https://convextrade.com/countries/eg): Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Egyptian Pound (EGP), GDP rank #36, next CBE decision 2026-05-21 (High-rate regime sustained until inflation path stabilises) Themes: IMF programme cycle; Suez Canal revenue sensitivity; Gulf funding dependence; FX regime adjustments; Remittance inflows Watch: CBE lending rate; USD/EGP; Egypt core CPI; Suez Canal revenues; Net international reserves - [Nigeria](https://convextrade.com/countries/ng): Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigerian Naira (NGN), GDP rank #39, next CBN decision 2026-05-20 (Continued tight stance to defend NGN and anchor inflation expectations) Themes: Naira FX unification; Fuel subsidy removal; Oil production undershoot; Dangote refinery commissioning; CBN credibility rebuild Watch: CBN MPR; USD/NGN; Nigeria CPI; Nigeria oil production vs quota; NGX All Share ### Asia Pacific - [Japan](https://convextrade.com/countries/jp): Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japanese Yen (JPY), GDP rank #5, next BoJ decision 2026-04-30 (Gradual normalization path with pace calibrated to JPY stability and wage data) Themes: Exit from NIRP and YCC; Corporate governance reform; JPY-USD differential; Public debt and BoJ holdings; Demographic decline Watch: BoJ policy rate; JGB 10Y yield; USD/JPY; Japan CPI ex-fresh food; Nikkei 225; TSE PBR distribution - [China](https://convextrade.com/countries/cn): People's Bank of China (PBoC), Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) (CNY), GDP rank #2, next PBoC decision 2026-04-21 (LPR stance anchored by growth targets and currency stability requirements) Themes: Property sector workout; Deflation and credit demand; Managed CNY fix; US technology decoupling; LGFV debt resolution; Advanced manufacturing pivot Watch: PBoC MLF/LPR rates; USD/CNH; China CPI and PPI; 10Y CGB yield; Property new starts; SHCOMP - [Hong Kong](https://convextrade.com/countries/hk): Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), GDP rank #40, next HKMA decision 2026-05-14 (Tracks Fed via linked-rate peg; local conditions transmitted through HIBOR) Themes: USD peg and linked rate system; Offshore CNH hub; Stock Connect flows; China IPO listings; Property market pressure Watch: HIBOR rates; HKD peg band position; Hang Seng index; Hong Kong property price index; Stock Connect net flows - [South Korea](https://convextrade.com/countries/kr): Bank of Korea (BoK), South Korean Won (KRW), GDP rank #13, next BoK decision 2026-05-28 (Cut path modulated by housing debt and FX volatility considerations) Themes: Semiconductor export cycle; Household debt transmission; Korea discount and Value-Up programme; BoK policy leadership; Chaebol governance Watch: BoK base rate; USD/KRW; Samsung/SK Hynix earnings; Korea CPI; KOSPI; Memory chip prices - [India](https://convextrade.com/countries/in): Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian Rupee (INR), GDP rank #3, next RBI decision 2026-06-05 (Hold with scope to ease if inflation path continues within target band) Themes: Demographic dividend; SIP flows and equity financialisation; Services export base; RBI inflation targeting; PLI manufacturing incentives Watch: RBI repo rate; USD/INR; India CPI; Nifty 50; SIP net flows; Current account deficit - [Indonesia](https://convextrade.com/countries/id): Bank Indonesia (BI), Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), GDP rank #16, next BI decision 2026-04-22 (IDR stability the binding constraint on easing pace) Themes: Nickel downstreaming; Fiscal deficit ceiling; Commodity export mix; Managed rupiah regime; Demographic tailwind Watch: BI rate; USD/IDR; Indonesia CPI; Nickel and coal prices; JCI index - [Vietnam](https://convextrade.com/countries/vn): State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Vietnamese Đồng (VND), GDP rank #32, next SBV decision 2026-05-15 (Policy calibrated to credit growth and external FX pressures) Themes: China-plus-one manufacturing; VND managed float; Property shadow finance; US trade policy scrutiny; FDI-led industrialisation Watch: SBV refinancing rate; USD/VND; Vietnam CPI; Manufacturing export growth; FDI commitments - [Thailand](https://convextrade.com/countries/th): Bank of Thailand (BoT), Thai Baht (THB), GDP rank #26, next BoT decision 2026-04-30 (Policy path balances subdued growth against elevated household debt) Themes: Tourism receipts concentration; Automotive manufacturing base; Household debt constraint; Political cycle volatility; BoT inflation target band Watch: BoT policy rate; USD/THB; Tourist arrivals; Thailand CPI; SET index - [Taiwan](https://convextrade.com/countries/tw): Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC), New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), GDP rank #22, next CBC decision 2026-06-18 (Quarterly framework with inflation path within target band) Themes: TSMC and semiconductor concentration; Persistent current account surplus; Managed TWD; Cross-Strait risk premium; CHIPS Act redistribution Watch: CBC discount rate; USD/TWD; TSMC revenue; Taiwan CPI; TWSE index; Current account share of GDP - [Singapore](https://convextrade.com/countries/sg): Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore Dollar (SGD), GDP rank #33, next MAS decision 2026-10-14 (Semi-annual NEER slope framework; next review at scheduled meeting) Themes: S$NEER policy framework; Regional financial hub; Electronics export cycle; ABSD property cooling regime; Family office inflows Watch: SORA rate; S$NEER slope position; Singapore CPI; STI index; Non-oil domestic exports - [Malaysia](https://convextrade.com/countries/my): Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), GDP rank #38, next BNM decision 2026-05-08 (Hold with MYR stability monitored against regional peers) Themes: Petronas fiscal dependence; Manufacturing-commodity mix; Data centre FDI flows; Islamic finance segment; MYR liquidity constraints Watch: BNM OPR; USD/MYR; Palm oil prices; Malaysia CPI; KLCI index - [Australia](https://convextrade.com/countries/au): Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Australian Dollar (AUD), GDP rank #15, next RBA decision 2026-05-06 (Hold bias; services inflation the key hurdle to cuts) Themes: Iron ore-China linkage; Variable-rate mortgage transmission; Superannuation asset base; RBA inflation target; Critical minerals exports Watch: RBA cash rate; AUD/USD; Iron ore prices; Australia trimmed mean CPI; ASX 200 - [New Zealand](https://convextrade.com/countries/nz): Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), GDP rank #52, next RBNZ decision 2026-05-28 (Cutting cycle underway; pace moderated by housing market resilience) Themes: Pioneer of inflation targeting; Dairy-China export link; Australian-owned banking oligopoly; Housing-dominated wealth; RBNZ policy cycle leadership Watch: RBNZ OCR; NZD/USD; Dairy whole milk powder prices; New Zealand CPI; NZX 50 ### Europe - [United Kingdom](https://convextrade.com/countries/gb): Bank of England (BoE), British Pound (GBP), GDP rank #6, next BoE decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with gradual cut bias as services inflation moderates) Themes: BoE policy trajectory; LDI and gilt stability; Fiscal credibility post-Truss; Services-led cycle; Short-fix mortgage transmission Watch: Bank Rate; UK 10Y gilt yield; UK CPI; GBP/USD; UK services PMI - [Germany](https://convextrade.com/countries/de): European Central Bank (via Bundesbank) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #4, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: Industrial transition post-Russian gas; Schuldenbremse fiscal rule; Export dependency; DAX international revenue mix; Bund risk-free pricing Watch: German 10Y bund yield; Ifo business climate; Industrial production; DAX index; EUR/USD - [France](https://convextrade.com/countries/fr): European Central Bank (via Banque de France) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #7, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: Public spending share; French-German spreads; Nuclear electricity base; Luxury export cycle; Aerospace trade flows Watch: OAT-Bund spread; French fiscal deficit; CAC 40; EUR/USD; French services PMI - [Italy](https://convextrade.com/countries/it): European Central Bank (via Banca d'Italia) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #8, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: Public debt sustainability; BTP-Bund spread dynamics; Demographic decline; Regional north-south divergence; ECB TPI backstop Watch: BTP-Bund 10Y spread; Italian fiscal deficit; FTSE MIB; Italian CPI; ECB holdings of BTPs - [Spain](https://convextrade.com/countries/es): European Central Bank (via Banco de España) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #14, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: EU Next Generation deployment; Tourism cycle; Post-2008 deleveraging; Regional fiscal transfers; Services export strength Watch: Spanish 10Y yield; Tourist arrivals; IBEX 35; Spanish unemployment rate; EU funds disbursed - [Netherlands](https://convextrade.com/countries/nl): European Central Bank (via DNB) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #18, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: ASML and semiconductor export controls; Current account surplus; Pension asset base; Rotterdam logistics hub; Housing-tax interaction Watch: Dutch 10Y yield; Semiconductor export orders; AEX index; House price index; Pension funding ratios - [Switzerland](https://convextrade.com/countries/ch): Swiss National Bank (SNB), Swiss Franc (CHF), GDP rank #20, next SNB decision 2026-06-18 (Hold with CHF strength and imported disinflation in focus) Themes: CHF as haven currency; SNB balance sheet interventions; UBS post-Credit Suisse footprint; Structurally low inflation; Pharma export cycle Watch: SNB policy rate; CHF/EUR; SNB FX reserves; Swiss CPI; SMI index - [Sweden](https://convextrade.com/countries/se): Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbank), Swedish Krona (SEK), GDP rank #23, next Riksbank decision 2026-05-07 (Hold bias; housing market recovery the key domestic variable) Themes: Floating-rate mortgage transmission; Commercial real estate stress; SEK valuation; Export sensitivity to Europe; Open-economy policy Watch: Riksbank policy rate; SEK/EUR; Swedish CPIF; Commercial real estate NAVs; OMXS30 - [Norway](https://convextrade.com/countries/no): Norges Bank (Norges Bank), Norwegian Krone (NOK), GDP rank #30, next Norges Bank decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with NOK weakness tempering the pace of further cuts) Themes: Government Pension Fund Global; Fiscal rule discipline; NOK oil correlation; Aquaculture export growth; Imported inflation channel Watch: Norges Bank policy rate; Brent oil price; NOK/EUR; Norwegian CPI-ATE; NBIM fund value - [Denmark](https://convextrade.com/countries/dk): Danmarks Nationalbank (DN), Danish Krone (DKK), GDP rank #37, next DN decision 2026-04-23 (Matches ECB moves to defend the EUR peg framework) Themes: ERM II krone peg to euro; Novo Nordisk export dominance; Callable mortgage structure; Long period of negative rates; High household debt Watch: DN policy rate; DKK/EUR band position; Novo Nordisk export share; Danish CPI; Mortgage bond yields - [Greece](https://convextrade.com/countries/gr): European Central Bank (via Bank of Greece) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #52, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: Post-crisis fiscal discipline; Credit rating upgrades; Tourism-led recovery; NPL cleanup programmes; Sovereign yield normalization Watch: Greek 10Y yield; Greek primary fiscal balance; Tourist arrivals; ATHEX index; Greek bank NPL ratios - [Ireland](https://convextrade.com/countries/ie): European Central Bank (via Central Bank of Ireland) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #29, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) Themes: Multinational distortion in GDP; Corporate tax receipts; OECD Pillar Two transition; Brexit trade effects; Housing supply shortage Watch: Corporate tax receipts; ISEQ index; Irish 10Y yield; Dublin house prices; Multinational employment - [Poland](https://convextrade.com/countries/pl): Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Polish Złoty (PLN), GDP rank #21, next NBP decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with focus on core inflation persistence and fiscal path) Themes: EU convergence growth; Post-2022 defence spending; FX mortgage litigation overhang; German supply chain coupling; Ukraine refugee absorption Watch: NBP reference rate; PLN/EUR; Polish CPI; Defence spending share of GDP; WIG20 index - [Turkey](https://convextrade.com/countries/tr): Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Turkish Lira (TRY), GDP rank #17, next CBRT decision 2026-04-24 (Orthodox framework disinflation path with careful sequencing) Themes: Return to orthodox monetary policy; Lira credibility rebuild; KKM unwinding; External financing dependence; NATO-Russia triangulation Watch: CBRT policy rate; TRY/USD; Turkish CPI; CBRT net FX reserves; Current account balance - [Russia](https://convextrade.com/countries/ru): Bank of Russia (CBR), Russian Ruble (RUB), GDP rank #11, next CBR decision 2026-04-24 (Elevated rates sustained by FX stability requirements) Themes: Sanctions regime; Oil revenue redirection; Central bank credibility defence; Defence-industrial mobilisation; Shadow fleet operations Watch: CBR key rate; RUB/USD; Urals-Brent discount; Russian CPI; National Wealth Fund balance ### Latin America - [Mexico](https://convextrade.com/countries/mx): Banco de México (Banxico), Mexican Peso (MXN), GDP rank #12, next Banxico decision 2026-05-08 (Incremental cut path contingent on Fed trajectory and MXN stability) Themes: USMCA and nearshoring; Carry trade flows; Pemex fiscal overhang; US manufacturing coupling Watch: Banxico overnight rate; MXN/USD; Mexico CPI; Remittance flows; US manufacturing PMI - [Brazil](https://convextrade.com/countries/br): Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), Brazilian Real (BRL), GDP rank #10, next BCB decision 2026-05-07 (Hold after prior cutting cycle; focus on FX pass-through and fiscal risk) Themes: Fiscal dominance risk; Commodity export cycle; BCB independence; China demand linkage Watch: Selic rate; BRL/USD; Brazilian primary fiscal balance; Iron ore prices; IPCA inflation - [Argentina](https://convextrade.com/countries/ar): Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Argentine Peso (ARS), GDP rank #24, next BCRA decision 2026-04-17 (Easing path tied to monthly inflation prints and FX regime stability) Themes: Inflation regime shift; FX regime transitions; Fiscal consolidation; IMF engagement; Parallel currency market Watch: BCRA policy rate; Official vs blue ARS spread; Argentina CPI; Central bank reserves; Sovereign bond spreads - [Chile](https://convextrade.com/countries/cl): Banco Central de Chile (BCCh), Chilean Peso (CLP), GDP rank #42, next BCCh decision 2026-06-17 (Hold with room to cut if inflation path confirms) Themes: Copper export cycle; Institutional credibility; Pension fund flows; Constitutional reform Watch: Copper prices; CLP/USD; BCCh policy rate; Chile IPoM; Pension system flows ### Middle East - [Saudi Arabia](https://convextrade.com/countries/sa): Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), Saudi Riyal (SAR), GDP rank #19, next SAMA decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework) Themes: USD peg and imported monetary policy; Vision 2030 and PIF deployment; OPEC+ supply coordination; Fiscal breakeven oil price; MSCI EM inclusion Watch: SAMA repo rate; Brent oil price; Saudi fiscal balance; PIF portfolio disclosures; Tadawul index - [United Arab Emirates](https://convextrade.com/countries/ae): Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), UAE Dirham (AED), GDP rank #31, next CBUAE decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework) Themes: USD peg and Fed transmission; Dubai-Abu Dhabi federal split; Expat workforce composition; Corporate tax introduction; Post-Abraham Accords integration Watch: CBUAE base rate; Brent oil price; Dubai property price index; Emirates NBD earnings; DFM and ADX indexes - [Israel](https://convextrade.com/countries/il): Bank of Israel (BoI), Israeli Shekel (ILS), GDP rank #28, next BoI decision 2026-05-26 (Cut path contingent on geopolitical risk premium and inflation persistence) Themes: Tech services export dominance; Post-2023 security overhang; Natural gas export pivot; Shekel geopolitical risk premium; BoI policy credibility Watch: BoI interest rate; USD/ILS; Israel CPI; High-tech services export growth; TA-125 index ### North America - [United States](https://convextrade.com/countries/us): Federal Reserve (Fed), US Dollar (USD), GDP rank #1, next Fed decision 2026-05-14 (Hold, with debate on timing of first cut shifting toward Q3) Themes: Federal Reserve policy; Treasury yield curve; Dollar cycle; Fiscal trajectory; Labor market tightness Watch: Core PCE inflation; Non-farm payrolls; Unemployment rate; 10Y Treasury yield; DXY dollar index; High-yield credit spreads - [Canada](https://convextrade.com/countries/ca): Bank of Canada (BoC), Canadian Dollar (CAD), GDP rank #9, next BoC decision 2026-04-22 (Hold, with debate on further cut timing as housing debt-service ratios peak) Themes: Oil-linked export economy; Household debt and mortgage resets; BoC rate path; Commodity currency dynamics Watch: WCS-WTI differential; BoC overnight rate; Canada 10Y yield; Household debt-service ratio; CAD/USD ## Central Banks Directory - Banco de México (Banxico), Mexico: Mexican Peso (MXN), next decision 2026-05-08 (Incremental cut path contingent on Fed trajectory and MXN stability) - Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), Brazil: Brazilian Real (BRL), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold after prior cutting cycle; focus on FX pass-through and fiscal risk) - Banco Central de Chile (BCCh), Chile: Chilean Peso (CLP), next decision 2026-06-17 (Hold with room to cut if inflation path confirms) - Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Argentina: Argentine Peso (ARS), next decision 2026-04-17 (Easing path tied to monthly inflation prints and FX regime stability) - Bank Indonesia (BI), Indonesia: Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), next decision 2026-04-22 (IDR stability the binding constraint on easing pace) - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), Malaysia: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), next decision 2026-05-08 (Hold with MYR stability monitored against regional peers) - Bank of Canada (BoC), Canada: Canadian Dollar (CAD), next decision 2026-04-22 (Hold, with debate on further cut timing as housing debt-service ratios peak) - Bank of England (BoE), United Kingdom: British Pound (GBP), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with gradual cut bias as services inflation moderates) - Bank of Israel (BoI), Israel: Israeli Shekel (ILS), next decision 2026-05-26 (Cut path contingent on geopolitical risk premium and inflation persistence) - Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japan: Japanese Yen (JPY), next decision 2026-04-30 (Gradual normalization path with pace calibrated to JPY stability and wage data) - Bank of Korea (BoK), South Korea: South Korean Won (KRW), next decision 2026-05-28 (Cut path modulated by housing debt and FX volatility considerations) - Bank of Thailand (BoT), Thailand: Thai Baht (THB), next decision 2026-04-30 (Policy path balances subdued growth against elevated household debt) - Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC), Taiwan: New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), next decision 2026-06-18 (Quarterly framework with inflation path within target band) - Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Egypt: Egyptian Pound (EGP), next decision 2026-05-21 (High-rate regime sustained until inflation path stabilises) - Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria: Nigerian Naira (NGN), next decision 2026-05-20 (Continued tight stance to defend NGN and anchor inflation expectations) - Bank of Russia (CBR), Russia: Russian Ruble (RUB), next decision 2026-04-24 (Elevated rates sustained by FX stability requirements) - Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Turkey: Turkish Lira (TRY), next decision 2026-04-24 (Orthodox framework disinflation path with careful sequencing) - Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), United Arab Emirates: UAE Dirham (AED), next decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework) - Danmarks Nationalbank (DN), Denmark: Danish Krone (DKK), next decision 2026-04-23 (Matches ECB moves to defend the EUR peg framework) - European Central Bank (via Bundesbank) (ECB), Germany: Euro (EUR), next decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched) - Federal Reserve (Fed), United States: US Dollar (USD), next decision 2026-05-14 (Hold, with debate on timing of first cut shifting toward Q3) - Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong: Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), next decision 2026-05-14 (Tracks Fed via linked-rate peg; local conditions transmitted through HIBOR) - Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore: Singapore Dollar (SGD), next decision 2026-10-14 (Semi-annual NEER slope framework; next review at scheduled meeting) - Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Poland: Polish Złoty (PLN), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with focus on core inflation persistence and fiscal path) - Norges Bank (Norges Bank), Norway: Norwegian Krone (NOK), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with NOK weakness tempering the pace of further cuts) - People's Bank of China (PBoC), China: Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) (CNY), next decision 2026-04-21 (LPR stance anchored by growth targets and currency stability requirements) - Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Australia: Australian Dollar (AUD), next decision 2026-05-06 (Hold bias; services inflation the key hurdle to cuts) - Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India: Indian Rupee (INR), next decision 2026-06-05 (Hold with scope to ease if inflation path continues within target band) - Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), New Zealand: New Zealand Dollar (NZD), next decision 2026-05-28 (Cutting cycle underway; pace moderated by housing market resilience) - Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbank), Sweden: Swedish Krona (SEK), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold bias; housing market recovery the key domestic variable) - Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), Saudi Arabia: Saudi Riyal (SAR), next decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework) - South African Reserve Bank (SARB), South Africa: South African Rand (ZAR), next decision 2026-05-28 (Cautious easing path; ZAR volatility the binding constraint) - State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Vietnam: Vietnamese Đồng (VND), next decision 2026-05-15 (Policy calibrated to credit growth and external FX pressures) - Swiss National Bank (SNB), Switzerland: Swiss Franc (CHF), next decision 2026-06-18 (Hold with CHF strength and imported disinflation in focus) ## Today's Indicators (142 featured-snippet landing pages with live readings) Each entry below is a first-sentence answer suitable for direct citation by AI search engines. Attribution: "Data by Convex Research Desk, convextrade.com" is required when lifting these values. ### Commodities - [Gold Price](https://convextrade.com/today/gold-price): Live data for Gold Price loading. Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge. (target query: "gold price today") - [WTI Crude Oil Price](https://convextrade.com/today/oil-price): Live data for WTI Crude Oil Price loading. West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price, the North American benchmark. (target query: "oil price today") - [Brent Crude Oil Price](https://convextrade.com/today/brent-crude-oil-price): Live data for Brent Crude Oil Price loading. Brent crude spot price, the international oil benchmark used for two-thirds of global pricing. (target query: "brent crude oil price today") - [Natural Gas Price](https://convextrade.com/today/natural-gas-price): Live data for Natural Gas Price loading. Henry Hub natural gas spot price, the North American benchmark for gas markets. (target query: "natural gas price today") - [Gold ETF (GLD)](https://convextrade.com/today/gold-etf): Live data for Gold ETF (GLD) loading. SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the largest gold-backed ETF for tracking spot gold performance. (target query: "gold etf price today") - [Copper Price](https://convextrade.com/today/copper-price): Live data for Copper Price loading. Global copper price, the "Dr. Copper" bellwether for industrial activity and global growth. (target query: "copper price today") - [Global Commodity Price Index](https://convextrade.com/today/commodity-price-index): Live data for Global Commodity Price Index loading. IMF/World Bank all-commodity price index, the broadest gauge of raw materials inflation. (target query: "commodity price index today") - [Homebuilder Stocks](https://convextrade.com/today/homebuilder-stocks): Live data for Homebuilder Stocks loading. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, tracking housing-related equities. (target query: "homebuilder stocks today") ### Credit - [High-Yield Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/high-yield-spread): Live data for High-Yield Credit Spread loading. ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk. (target query: "high yield spread today") - [Investment-Grade Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/investment-grade-spread): Live data for Investment-Grade Credit Spread loading. ICE BofA Investment-Grade OAS, the cost of corporate credit vs Treasuries. (target query: "investment grade spread today") - [BBB Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/bbb-credit-spread): Live data for BBB Credit Spread loading. BBB-rated corporate bond spread, the threshold between investment grade and junk. (target query: "bbb spread today") - [High-Yield Effective Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/high-yield-effective-yield): Live data for High-Yield Effective Yield loading. ICE BofA High-Yield effective yield, the all-in return demanded by junk bond investors. (target query: "high yield bond yield today") - [Financial Stress Index](https://convextrade.com/today/financial-stress-index): Live data for Financial Stress Index loading. St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, a composite of 18 market stress signals. (target query: "financial stress index today") - [Credit Card Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/credit-card-delinquency-rate): Live data for Credit Card Delinquency Rate loading. Credit card loan delinquency rate at commercial banks, tracking consumer financial distress. (target query: "credit card delinquency rate today") - [Bank Lending Standards (C&I)](https://convextrade.com/today/bank-lending-standards): Live data for Bank Lending Standards (C&I) loading. Net percentage of banks tightening standards for C&I loans, from the Senior Loan Officer Survey. (target query: "bank lending standards today") - [Regional Bank Stocks](https://convextrade.com/today/regional-bank-stocks): Live data for Regional Bank Stocks loading. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, the barometer for regional bank health. (target query: "regional bank stocks today") ### Crypto - [Bitcoin Price](https://convextrade.com/today/bitcoin-price): Live data for Bitcoin Price loading. Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer. (target query: "bitcoin price today") - [Ethereum Price](https://convextrade.com/today/ethereum-price): Live data for Ethereum Price loading. Ethereum spot price, the leading smart-contract platform token. (target query: "ethereum price today") - [Fear & Greed Index](https://convextrade.com/today/fear-and-greed-index): Live data for Fear & Greed Index loading. Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a composite sentiment measure from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). (target query: "fear and greed index today") ### Economy - [Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/today/gdp-growth-rate): Live data for Real GDP loading. Real gross domestic product, the headline measure of US economic output. (target query: "gdp growth rate today") - [Atlanta Fed GDPNow](https://convextrade.com/today/gdpnow): Live data for Atlanta Fed GDPNow loading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow real-time GDP estimate, the most-watched nowcast of current-quarter growth. (target query: "gdpnow today") - [Consumer Sentiment](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-sentiment): Live data for Consumer Sentiment loading. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, a leading gauge of spending intentions. (target query: "consumer sentiment today") - [Retail Sales](https://convextrade.com/today/retail-sales): Live data for Retail Sales loading. Advance retail sales excluding food services, the primary monthly consumer spending indicator. (target query: "retail sales today") - [Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/today/industrial-production): Live data for Industrial Production loading. Fed industrial production index, the broadest monthly output measure for factories and mines. (target query: "industrial production today") - [Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/today/housing-starts): Live data for Housing Starts loading. New residential construction starts (SAAR), the primary gauge of homebuilding activity. (target query: "housing starts today") - [Building Permits](https://convextrade.com/today/building-permits): Live data for Building Permits loading. New privately-owned housing units authorized, a leading indicator of future construction. (target query: "building permits today") - [New Home Sales](https://convextrade.com/today/new-home-sales): Live data for New Home Sales loading. Sales of new single-family homes (SAAR), a forward-looking housing demand signal. (target query: "new home sales today") - [Case-Shiller Home Price Index](https://convextrade.com/today/case-shiller-home-price-index): Live data for Case-Shiller Home Price Index loading. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, the gold standard for house prices. (target query: "case shiller home price index today") - [Durable Goods Orders](https://convextrade.com/today/durable-goods-orders): Live data for Durable Goods Orders loading. New orders for manufactured durable goods, a gauge of business investment intentions. (target query: "durable goods orders today") - [Capacity Utilization](https://convextrade.com/today/capacity-utilization): Live data for Capacity Utilization loading. Industrial capacity utilization rate, signaling how much slack remains in the economy. (target query: "capacity utilization today") - [Personal Saving Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/personal-saving-rate): Live data for Personal Saving Rate loading. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, a gauge of consumer financial health. (target query: "personal saving rate today") - [Total Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-credit): Live data for Total Consumer Credit loading. Total outstanding consumer credit, tracking household borrowing for spending. (target query: "consumer credit today") - [Auto Sales](https://convextrade.com/today/auto-sales): Live data for Auto Sales loading. Total vehicle sales (SAAR), a high-frequency signal for consumer big-ticket spending. (target query: "auto sales today") - [Leading Economic Index](https://convextrade.com/today/leading-economic-index): Live data for Leading Economic Index loading. Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a composite of ten forward-looking indicators. (target query: "leading economic index today") - [US Trade Balance](https://convextrade.com/today/trade-balance): Live data for US Trade Balance loading. US balance on goods and services trade, the headline measure of external deficits. (target query: "us trade balance today") - [Corporate Profits After Tax](https://convextrade.com/today/corporate-profits): Live data for Corporate Profits After Tax loading. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation adjustments. (target query: "corporate profits today") - [NAHB Housing Market Index](https://convextrade.com/today/nahb-housing-market-index): Live data for NAHB Housing Market Index loading. National Association of Home Builders sentiment index, the builder confidence barometer. (target query: "nahb housing market index today") - [NY Fed GSCPI](https://convextrade.com/today/global-supply-chain-pressure): Live data for NY Fed GSCPI loading. NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, tracking cross-border logistics stress. (target query: "global supply chain pressure index today") - [Financial Conditions (NFCI)](https://convextrade.com/today/financial-conditions-index): Live data for Financial Conditions (NFCI) loading. Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, a broad gauge of US financial tightness. (target query: "financial conditions index today") ### Employment - [Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/unemployment-rate): Live data for Unemployment Rate loading. The headline U3 unemployment rate, percentage of the labor force without jobs. (target query: "unemployment rate today") - [Initial Jobless Claims](https://convextrade.com/today/initial-jobless-claims): Live data for Initial Jobless Claims loading. Weekly first-time unemployment insurance claims, the highest-frequency labor indicator. (target query: "initial jobless claims today") - [Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/today/nonfarm-payrolls): Live data for Nonfarm Payrolls loading. Total nonfarm employment change, the single most-watched US jobs report figure. (target query: "nonfarm payrolls today") - [JOLTS Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/today/job-openings): Live data for JOLTS Job Openings loading. JOLTS job openings, a key measure of labor demand and the jobs-workers gap. (target query: "jolts job openings today") - [JOLTS Quit Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/quits-rate): Live data for JOLTS Quit Rate loading. JOLTS voluntary quits rate, a signal of worker confidence in the labor market. (target query: "quits rate today") - [U6 Underemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/u6-unemployment-rate): Live data for U6 Underemployment Rate loading. The broadest official unemployment measure, including part-time for economic reasons. (target query: "u6 unemployment rate today") - [Labor Force Participation Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/labor-force-participation-rate): Live data for Labor Force Participation Rate loading. Share of working-age population in the labor force, a structural supply indicator. (target query: "labor force participation rate today") - [Average Hourly Earnings](https://convextrade.com/today/average-hourly-earnings): Live data for Average Hourly Earnings loading. Average hourly earnings for all private employees, the primary wage growth indicator. (target query: "average hourly earnings today") - [Continuing Jobless Claims](https://convextrade.com/today/continuing-jobless-claims): Live data for Continuing Jobless Claims loading. Insured unemployment continuing claims, tracking how long displaced workers stay jobless. (target query: "continuing claims today") - [Sahm Rule Indicator](https://convextrade.com/today/sahm-rule-recession-indicator): Live data for Sahm Rule Indicator loading. The Sahm Rule recession indicator, triggered when unemployment rises 0.5pp from its 12-month low. (target query: "sahm rule today") - [Employment-Population Ratio](https://convextrade.com/today/employment-population-ratio): Live data for Employment-Population Ratio loading. Share of working-age population currently employed, a broad labor utilization measure. (target query: "employment population ratio today") - [UK Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/uk-unemployment-rate): Live data for UK Unemployment Rate loading. UK unemployment rate, the headline labour market indicator for the Bank of England. (target query: "uk unemployment rate today") - [Eurozone Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/eurozone-unemployment-rate): Live data for Eurozone Unemployment Rate loading. Eurozone harmonised unemployment rate, tracking joblessness across the currency bloc. (target query: "eurozone unemployment rate today") - [Canada Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-unemployment-rate): Live data for Canada Unemployment Rate loading. Canadian unemployment rate, a key input for Bank of Canada policy decisions. (target query: "canada unemployment rate today") ### FX - [US Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/today/dollar-index): Live data for US Dollar Index loading. Broad trade-weighted US dollar index, measures dollar strength vs major trading partners. (target query: "dollar index today") - [EUR/USD](https://convextrade.com/today/eur-usd-exchange-rate): Live data for EUR/USD loading. Euro to US dollar exchange rate, the world's most traded currency pair. (target query: "eur usd exchange rate today") - [USD/JPY](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-jpy-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/JPY loading. US dollar to Japanese yen, driven by the rate differential between Fed and BoJ. (target query: "usd jpy exchange rate today") - [GBP/USD](https://convextrade.com/today/gbp-usd-exchange-rate): Live data for GBP/USD loading. British pound to US dollar, the "cable" rate tracking UK-US monetary divergence. (target query: "gbp usd exchange rate today") - [USD/CNY](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-cny-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/CNY loading. US dollar to Chinese yuan, the managed exchange rate reflecting PBoC policy. (target query: "usd cny exchange rate today") - [USD/CAD](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-cad-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/CAD loading. US dollar to Canadian dollar, the "loonie" rate driven by oil and BoC policy. (target query: "usd cad exchange rate today") - [USD/MXN](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-mxn-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/MXN loading. US dollar to Mexican peso, influenced by Banxico rates and nearshoring flows. (target query: "usd mxn exchange rate today") - [USD/BRL](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-brl-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/BRL loading. US dollar to Brazilian real, reflecting Latin American carry trade dynamics. (target query: "usd brl exchange rate today") - [EUR/GBP](https://convextrade.com/today/eur-gbp-exchange-rate): Live data for EUR/GBP loading. Euro to British pound cross rate, tracking ECB-BoE policy divergence. (target query: "eur gbp exchange rate today") - [EM Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/today/em-dollar-index): Live data for EM Dollar Index loading. Trade-weighted dollar index against emerging-market currencies. (target query: "emerging market dollar index today") - [Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/real-effective-exchange-rate): Live data for Real Effective Exchange Rate loading. BIS real effective exchange rate for the US dollar, inflation-adjusted trade-weighted measure. (target query: "real effective exchange rate today") - [Dollar Strength (UUP)](https://convextrade.com/today/dxy): Live data for Dollar Strength (UUP) loading. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, a tradeable proxy for dollar strength. (target query: "dxy today") ### Inflation - [CPI Inflation Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/cpi-inflation-rate): Live data for CPI Inflation Rate loading. Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge. (target query: "cpi inflation rate today") - [Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/today/core-pce): Live data for Core PCE loading. Core PCE excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. (target query: "core pce today") - [Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/today/core-cpi): Live data for Core CPI loading. Core CPI excluding food and energy, the standard measure of underlying consumer price inflation. (target query: "core cpi today") - [PCE Price Index](https://convextrade.com/today/pce-price-index): Live data for PCE Price Index loading. Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the broadest consumer inflation measure. (target query: "pce price index today") - [PPI Inflation Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/ppi-inflation-rate): Live data for PPI Inflation Rate loading. Producer Price Index for final demand, a leading signal for consumer inflation. (target query: "ppi today") - [5-Year Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/today/5-year-breakeven-inflation): Live data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation loading. 5-year breakeven inflation rate derived from TIPS, the market-implied inflation forecast. (target query: "5 year breakeven inflation rate today") - [10-Year Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/today/10-year-breakeven-inflation): Live data for 10-Year Breakeven Inflation loading. 10-year breakeven inflation rate, the bond market consensus on decade-ahead price growth. (target query: "10 year breakeven inflation rate today") - [5Y5Y Forward Inflation](https://convextrade.com/today/5y5y-forward-inflation): Live data for 5Y5Y Forward Inflation loading. 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate, the Fed's preferred gauge of anchored expectations. (target query: "5y5y forward inflation rate today") - [CPI: Rent of Shelter](https://convextrade.com/today/shelter-inflation): Live data for CPI: Rent of Shelter loading. CPI rent of shelter component, the stickiest and largest weight in the CPI basket. (target query: "shelter inflation today") - [Michigan Inflation Expectations](https://convextrade.com/today/michigan-inflation-expectations): Live data for Michigan Inflation Expectations loading. University of Michigan consumer survey 1-year ahead inflation expectations. (target query: "michigan inflation expectations today") - [CPI: Energy](https://convextrade.com/today/energy-inflation): Live data for CPI: Energy loading. CPI energy component, the most volatile contributor to headline inflation swings. (target query: "energy inflation today") - [CPI: Food](https://convextrade.com/today/food-inflation): Live data for CPI: Food loading. CPI food component tracking grocery and restaurant price changes. (target query: "food inflation today") - [UK CPI](https://convextrade.com/today/uk-inflation-rate): Live data for UK CPI loading. UK Consumer Price Index, the headline inflation measure for the Bank of England. (target query: "uk inflation rate today") - [Eurozone HICP](https://convextrade.com/today/eurozone-inflation): Live data for Eurozone HICP loading. Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the headline inflation gauge for ECB policy. (target query: "eurozone inflation rate today") - [Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast](https://convextrade.com/today/cleveland-fed-cpi-nowcast): Live data for Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast loading. Cleveland Fed real-time CPI nowcast for the current month, updated daily. (target query: "cleveland fed cpi nowcast today") - [Canada CPI](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-cpi): Live data for Canada CPI loading. Canadian Consumer Price Index year-over-year, the headline inflation print for BoC policy. (target query: "canada cpi today") ### Markets - [S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/today/sp500): Live data for S&P 500 loading. SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracking the benchmark US large-cap equity index. (target query: "sp500 today") - [Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/today/nasdaq): Live data for Nasdaq 100 loading. Invesco QQQ tracking the Nasdaq 100, the tech-heavy growth benchmark. (target query: "nasdaq today") - [VIX Index](https://convextrade.com/today/vix): Live data for VIX Index loading. CBOE Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" measuring S&P 500 expected volatility. (target query: "vix today") - [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://convextrade.com/today/dow-jones): Live data for Dow Jones Industrial Average loading. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, tracking the blue-chip 30 price-weighted index. (target query: "dow jones today") - [Russell 2000](https://convextrade.com/today/russell-2000): Live data for Russell 2000 loading. iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the primary US small-cap equity benchmark. (target query: "russell 2000 today") - [Equal-Weight S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/today/equal-weight-sp500): Live data for Equal-Weight S&P 500 loading. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, measuring breadth without mega-cap concentration. (target query: "equal weight sp500 today") - [Semiconductor Index](https://convextrade.com/today/semiconductors): Live data for Semiconductor Index loading. VanEck Semiconductor ETF, tracking the AI-driven chip cycle. (target query: "semiconductor stocks today") - [Emerging Markets](https://convextrade.com/today/emerging-markets): Live data for Emerging Markets loading. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the broad EM equity benchmark. (target query: "emerging markets today") - [FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/today/ftse-100): Live data for FTSE 100 loading. FTSE 100 index, the headline equity benchmark for the London Stock Exchange. (target query: "ftse 100 today") - [DAX 40](https://convextrade.com/today/dax-40): Live data for DAX 40 loading. DAX 40 index, the primary equity benchmark for the German stock market. (target query: "dax today") - [Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/today/euro-stoxx-50): Live data for Euro Stoxx 50 loading. Euro Stoxx 50, the leading eurozone blue-chip equity index. (target query: "euro stoxx 50 today") - [Japan Equities (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/today/nikkei-225): Live data for Japan Equities (EWJ) loading. iShares MSCI Japan ETF, tracking Japanese large-cap equities. (target query: "nikkei today") - [China Large-Cap (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/today/china-stocks): Live data for China Large-Cap (FXI) loading. iShares China Large-Cap ETF, tracking the 50 largest Chinese companies. (target query: "china stocks today") - [Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/today/fed-balance-sheet): Live data for Fed Balance Sheet loading. Total assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the headline measure of QE/QT. (target query: "fed balance sheet today") - [M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/today/m2-money-supply): Live data for M2 Money Supply loading. M2 money supply, the broadest commonly tracked measure of dollars in circulation. (target query: "m2 money supply today") - [Overnight Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/today/reverse-repo): Live data for Overnight Reverse Repo loading. Overnight reverse repurchase facility balance, a key gauge of excess liquidity. (target query: "reverse repo today") - [Treasury General Account](https://convextrade.com/today/treasury-general-account): Live data for Treasury General Account loading. The Treasury's checking account at the Fed, a driver of near-term liquidity flows. (target query: "treasury general account today") - [VSTOXX](https://convextrade.com/today/vstoxx): Live data for VSTOXX loading. Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index, the European equivalent of the VIX. (target query: "vstoxx today") - [MOVE Index](https://convextrade.com/today/move-index): Live data for MOVE Index loading. ICE BofA MOVE Index, the "VIX for bonds" measuring Treasury market volatility. (target query: "move index today") - [FINRA Margin Debt](https://convextrade.com/today/margin-debt): Live data for FINRA Margin Debt loading. FINRA member margin debt outstanding, a gauge of leveraged equity market speculation. (target query: "margin debt today") - [Technology Sector (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/today/technology-sector): Live data for Technology Sector (XLK) loading. Technology Select Sector SPDR, tracking the largest US tech stocks. (target query: "technology sector today") - [Financial Sector (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/today/financial-sector): Live data for Financial Sector (XLF) loading. Financial Select Sector SPDR, tracking US banks, insurers, and asset managers. (target query: "financial sector today") - [Energy Sector (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/today/energy-sector): Live data for Energy Sector (XLE) loading. Energy Select Sector SPDR, tracking US oil, gas, and energy companies. (target query: "energy sector today") - [Healthcare Sector (XLV)](https://convextrade.com/today/healthcare-sector): Live data for Healthcare Sector (XLV) loading. Health Care Select Sector SPDR, tracking US pharma, biotech, and health services. (target query: "healthcare sector today") - [Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-discretionary-sector): Live data for Consumer Discretionary (XLY) loading. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, the cyclical consumer spending barometer. (target query: "consumer discretionary sector today") - [Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-staples-sector): Live data for Consumer Staples (XLP) loading. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the defensive essentials benchmark. (target query: "consumer staples sector today") - [Utilities Sector (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/today/utilities-sector): Live data for Utilities Sector (XLU) loading. Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the rate-sensitive defensive yield play. (target query: "utilities sector today") - [Industrials Sector (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/today/industrials-sector): Live data for Industrials Sector (XLI) loading. Industrial Select Sector SPDR, tracking manufacturers, defense, and transportation. (target query: "industrials sector today") - [Real Estate Sector (XLRE)](https://convextrade.com/today/real-estate-sector): Live data for Real Estate Sector (XLRE) loading. Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, tracking REITs and real estate companies. (target query: "real estate sector today") - [Materials Sector (XLB)](https://convextrade.com/today/materials-sector): Live data for Materials Sector (XLB) loading. Freeport-McMoRan, the largest US-listed copper miner and materials bellwether. (target query: "materials sector today") - [Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/today/communication-services-sector): Live data for Communication Services (XLC) loading. Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, tracking Meta, Alphabet, and telcos. (target query: "communication services sector today") - [Put/Call Ratio](https://convextrade.com/today/put-call-ratio): Live data for Put/Call Ratio loading. CBOE equity put/call ratio, a contrarian sentiment indicator for US stock markets. (target query: "put call ratio today") - [CFTC S&P 500 Net Speculative](https://convextrade.com/today/cftc-sp500-positioning): Live data for CFTC S&P 500 Net Speculative loading. CFTC Commitments of Traders net speculative positions in S&P 500 futures. (target query: "cftc sp500 positioning today") ### Rates - [Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/federal-funds-rate): Live data for Federal Funds Rate loading. The effective federal funds rate, the primary tool of US monetary policy. (target query: "federal funds rate today") - [10-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/10-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 10-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 10-year US Treasury notes, the global risk-free benchmark. (target query: "10 year treasury yield today") - [2-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/2-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 2-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 2-year US Treasury notes, the key Fed expectations proxy. (target query: "2 year treasury yield today") - [30-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/30-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 30-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds, the longest-duration sovereign benchmark. (target query: "30 year treasury yield today") - [5-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/5-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 5-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 5-year US Treasury notes, the belly of the curve and key mortgage reference. (target query: "5 year treasury yield today") - [1-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/1-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 1-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 1-year US Treasury bills, a proxy for short-term rate expectations. (target query: "1 year treasury yield today") - [3-Month Treasury Bill Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/3-month-treasury-bill-rate): Live data for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate loading. Yield on 3-month Treasury bills, the shortest major sovereign benchmark. (target query: "3 month treasury bill rate today") - [30-Year Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/30-year-mortgage-rate): Live data for 30-Year Mortgage Rate loading. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the primary driver of housing affordability. (target query: "30 year mortgage rate today") - [10Y-2Y Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/yield-curve): Live data for 10Y-2Y Yield Spread loading. 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, the classic recession signal when inverted. (target query: "yield curve today") - [10-Year Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/today/10-year-real-yield): Live data for 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) loading. 10-year TIPS yield, the key driver for gold, crypto, and long-duration assets. (target query: "10 year real yield today") - [5-Year Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/today/5-year-real-yield): Live data for 5-Year Real Yield (TIPS) loading. 5-year TIPS yield, a core input to real rate models and gold valuation. (target query: "5 year real yield today") - [SOFR Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/sofr-rate): Live data for SOFR Rate loading. Secured Overnight Financing Rate, the benchmark replacing LIBOR for trillions in derivatives. (target query: "sofr rate today") - [Effective Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/effective-federal-funds-rate): Live data for Effective Federal Funds Rate loading. The actual rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of federal funds. (target query: "effective federal funds rate today") - [Bank Prime Loan Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/prime-rate): Live data for Bank Prime Loan Rate loading. Prime rate charged by commercial banks, the benchmark for consumer and business loans. (target query: "prime rate today") - [10-Year Term Premium](https://convextrade.com/today/term-premium): Live data for 10-Year Term Premium loading. ACM model estimate of the 10-year term premium, the compensation for holding long bonds. (target query: "term premium today") - [Fed Funds Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/fed-funds-target-rate): Live data for Fed Funds Target Rate loading. Upper bound of the FOMC target range for the federal funds rate. (target query: "fed funds target rate today") - [ECB Deposit Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/ecb-interest-rate): Live data for ECB Deposit Rate loading. European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the main policy rate for the eurozone. (target query: "ecb interest rate today") - [Bank of England Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/boe-interest-rate): Live data for Bank of England Rate loading. Bank of England official bank rate, the primary monetary policy tool for the UK. (target query: "bank of england interest rate today") - [Germany 10-Year Bund Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/germany-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Germany 10-Year Bund Yield loading. Yield on 10-year German government bonds, the eurozone risk-free benchmark. (target query: "germany 10 year bond yield today") - [UK 10-Year Gilt Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/uk-10-year-gilt-yield): Live data for UK 10-Year Gilt Yield loading. Yield on 10-year UK government gilts, the primary sterling fixed-income benchmark. (target query: "uk gilt yield today") - [Italy 10-Year BTP Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/italy-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Italy 10-Year BTP Yield loading. Italian 10-year government bond (BTP) yield, the gauge of eurozone peripheral risk. (target query: "italy 10 year bond yield today") - [Japan 10-Year JGB Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/japan-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Japan 10-Year JGB Yield loading. Japanese 10-year government bond yield, closely watched for BoJ yield curve control shifts. (target query: "japan 10 year bond yield today") - [Bank of Canada Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-interest-rate): Live data for Bank of Canada Rate loading. Bank of Canada overnight rate target, the primary monetary policy tool for Canada. (target query: "bank of canada interest rate today") - [Bank of Japan Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/boj-interest-rate): Live data for Bank of Japan Rate loading. Bank of Japan overnight call rate target, the anchor of Japanese monetary policy. (target query: "bank of japan interest rate today") - [Swiss National Bank Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/snb-interest-rate): Live data for Swiss National Bank Rate loading. Swiss National Bank policy rate, the anchor of Swiss franc monetary policy. (target query: "snb interest rate today") - [EURIBOR 3-Month](https://convextrade.com/today/euribor-rate): Live data for EURIBOR 3-Month loading. 3-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate, the benchmark for eurozone short-term lending. (target query: "euribor rate today") - [Canada 10-Year Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Canada 10-Year Bond Yield loading. Canadian 10-year government bond yield, the key fixed-income benchmark north of the border. (target query: "canada 10 year bond yield today") - [RBA Cash Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/australia-interest-rate): Live data for RBA Cash Rate loading. Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target, the primary monetary policy tool for Australia. (target query: "rba interest rate today") ## Historical Macro Events (34 archived events) ### Deflation Regime - [1982 Latin American Debt Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/1982-latam-debt-crisis), August 1982 – 1989: Mexico defaulted on its external debt in August 1982, triggering a seven-year crisis that engulfed Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and most of Latin America. The "lost decade" reshaped emerging market finance. - [1990 Japanese Bubble Collapse](https://convextrade.com/history/1990-japan-bubble-burst), January 1990 – 2003: The Nikkei 225 peaked at 38,957 on December 29, 1989, then fell 82% over 13 years. Japan entered its "lost decades" of deflation, zero rates, and structural stagnation that still shapes global markets today. - [1997 Asian Financial Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/1997-asian-financial-crisis), July 1997 – 1998: Thailand's forced devaluation of the baht on July 2, 1997 triggered contagion across Southeast Asia. Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia saw currency collapses, sovereign debt crises, and economic contractions of 10-15%. - [1998 LTCM Collapse & Russia Default](https://convextrade.com/history/1998-ltcm-russia-default), August – October 1998: Russia's default on August 17, 1998 blew up Long-Term Capital Management, which had $125 billion of assets on $4.7 billion of equity. The Fed orchestrated a private bailout to prevent systemic contagion. - [2000 Dotcom Crash](https://convextrade.com/history/2000-dotcom-crash), March 2000 – October 2002: The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048 on March 10, 2000 and fell 78% over 31 months. Internet companies went bankrupt en masse. The crash reshaped venture capital, corporate governance, and accounting standards. - [2008 Financial Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2008-financial-crisis), September 2007 – March 2009: The 2008 Financial Crisis remains the deepest and most instructive market event of the 21st century. Subprime losses cascaded through leveraged balance sheets, froze interbank lending, and forced unprecedented central bank intervention. - [2010 European Sovereign Debt Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2010-european-debt-crisis), April 2010 – July 2012: Greece's debt revelation in October 2009 triggered a multi-year eurozone crisis that threatened the euro's survival. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy required emergency support. Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" in 2012 ended the acute phase. - [2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse](https://convextrade.com/history/2014-oil-collapse), June 2014 – February 2016: Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003. - [2020 COVID Crash & Recovery](https://convextrade.com/history/2020-covid-crash), February–April 2020: The fastest 30%+ decline in S&P 500 history, followed by the fastest recovery. COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented monetary and fiscal intervention. ### Goldilocks Regime - [1998 Euro Launch & 1999 Introduction](https://convextrade.com/history/1998-euro-launch), May 1998 – January 2002: Eleven European Union members locked exchange rates on January 1, 1999, creating the euro as a virtual currency. Physical notes and coins circulated from January 1, 2002. The euro became the largest monetary experiment since Bretton Woods. - [2006 US Housing Market Peak](https://convextrade.com/history/2006-housing-peak), June 2006 – February 2007: US home prices peaked in summer 2006 after a 106% rally from 2000. Subprime mortgage underwriting collapsed in late 2006, setting up the 2008 crisis. The peak is the canonical example of a market top visible only in retrospect. - [2010 Flash Crash](https://convextrade.com/history/2010-flash-crash), May 6, 2010: On May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1,000 points in minutes before recovering. The Flash Crash exposed the fragility of modern electronic market structure. - [2016 Brexit Vote](https://convextrade.com/history/2016-brexit), June 23–24, 2016: The UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016. The pound fell 10% overnight, its largest single-day drop since floating in 1971. - [2018 Volmageddon (XIV Collapse)](https://convextrade.com/history/2018-volmageddon), February 5, 2018: On February 5, 2018, the VIX doubled intraday, the largest single-day VIX move ever. Short-volatility ETNs lost 90% of their value, and the XIV was terminated. - [2019 September Repo Market Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2019-repo-crisis), September 16-17, 2019: Overnight repo rates spiked from 2% to 10% on September 17, 2019, forcing the Fed to intervene with its first open market operations since 2008. The episode revealed structural strains in US money markets that persisted into 2020. ### Mixed Regime - [1987 Black Monday](https://convextrade.com/history/1987-black-monday), October 19, 1987: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6% on October 19, 1987, the largest single-day percentage decline in history. Portfolio insurance and program trading amplified the crash. - [2011 US Debt Ceiling & Downgrade](https://convextrade.com/history/2011-us-debt-downgrade), July–August 2011: S&P stripped the United States of its AAA credit rating on August 5, 2011, the first time in history. Markets whipsawed as the debt ceiling fight showed political risk could reprice government creditworthiness. - [2015 Swiss Franc Unpegging Shock](https://convextrade.com/history/2015-swiss-franc-unpegging), January 15, 2015: The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments. - [2015 China Yuan Devaluation](https://convextrade.com/history/2015-china-devaluation), August 2015: The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed. - [2019 Hong Kong Protests & Capital Outflows](https://convextrade.com/history/2019-hong-kong-protests), June 2019 – June 2020: Hong Kong's 2019 protests over an extradition bill and Beijing's 2020 National Security Law reshaped the territory's role as Asia's financial hub. Capital outflows, reduced multinational presence, and regulatory divergence from the West had durable effects on regional finance. - [2023 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse](https://convextrade.com/history/2023-svb-banking-crisis), March 2023: Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, 2023, the second-largest bank failure in US history. The Fed's response redefined liquidity backstops for the banking system. - [2023 Credit Suisse Forced Merger](https://convextrade.com/history/2023-credit-suisse-failure), March 15-19, 2023: Credit Suisse was forced into an emergency acquisition by UBS over the weekend of March 18-19, 2023. The deal wiped out AT1 bondholders while preserving some equity, reshaping bank capital structure risk assessment globally. - [2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind](https://convextrade.com/history/2024-yen-carry-trade-unwind), July–August 2024: The Bank of Japan hiked rates on July 31, 2024. The yen rallied 8% in days. The Nikkei crashed 12% in one session. VIX briefly spiked to 65. ### Reflation Regime - [1985 Plaza Accord](https://convextrade.com/history/1985-plaza-accord), September 22, 1985: G5 finance ministers agreed at the Plaza Hotel in New York to coordinate intervention that weakened the dollar. The accord engineered a 50% decline in DXY over two years and set the stage for the 1987 crash and Japan's bubble. - [1994 Bond Market Massacre](https://convextrade.com/history/1994-bond-market-massacre), February – November 1994: The Fed's surprise 25bp hike on February 4, 1994 triggered one of the worst bond market selloffs in history. 10Y yields rose 240bps in nine months. Orange County, Mexico, and Kidder Peabody were casualties. - [2012 Draghi "Whatever It Takes" Moment](https://convextrade.com/history/2012-draghi-whatever-it-takes), July 26, 2012: ECB President Mario Draghi's July 26, 2012 speech in London ended the acute eurozone crisis. The commitment, backed by Outright Monetary Transactions, arrested peripheral yield spikes without buying a single bond. - [2013 Taper Tantrum](https://convextrade.com/history/2013-taper-tantrum), May–September 2013: When Fed Chair Ben Bernanke suggested tapering QE in May 2013, 10Y Treasury yields nearly doubled, emerging markets cracked, and carry trades unwound violently. - [2021 Meme Stock Mania (GameStop)](https://convextrade.com/history/2021-meme-stock-mania), January–February 2021: GameStop rose 1,625% in January 2021 as retail traders on r/WallStreetBets forced a short squeeze. Hedge funds lost billions. Robinhood restricted trading. ### Stagflation Regime - [1971 Nixon Shock (End of Gold Standard)](https://convextrade.com/history/1971-nixon-shock), August 15, 1971: On August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at $35/oz, ending the Bretton Woods system and ushering in the modern fiat era. - [1973 OPEC Oil Embargo](https://convextrade.com/history/1973-oil-embargo), October 1973 – March 1974: OPEC quadrupled oil prices and embargoed shipments to the United States in response to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The shock launched a decade of stagflation. - [1979 Volcker Shock](https://convextrade.com/history/1979-volcker-shock), October 1979 – August 1982: Paul Volcker's Fed raised interest rates to 20% to break entrenched inflation. The policy triggered the deepest post-war recession but ended the stagflation era and established inflation-targeting credibility. - [2022 Fed Rate Hiking Cycle](https://convextrade.com/history/2022-rate-hiking-cycle), March–December 2022: The Fed raised rates 425bps in 2022, the fastest hiking cycle since the Volcker era. The 60/40 portfolio posted its worst year since 1937. - [2022 UK Mini-Budget & Gilt Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2022-uk-gilt-crisis), September 23 – October 14, 2022: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's September 23, 2022 mini-budget triggered a collapse in sterling and gilts. LDI pension strategies faced forced liquidation. The Bank of England intervened to prevent financial instability. - [2025 US Tariff Shock](https://convextrade.com/history/2025-tariff-shock), February – April 2025: The Trump administration imposed reciprocal tariffs averaging 25% on most trading partners in February-April 2025. Markets priced the most aggressive trade policy shift since 1930, with ripple effects across currencies, bond yields, and supply chains. ## Data Sources (11 upstream providers) ### Alternative Data - [On-Chain Analytics](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#onchain) (On-chain): Blockchain-native metrics: active addresses, exchange flows, realized cap, miner behavior, stablecoin flows. Cadence: Daily, with some metrics available intraday. License: Derived from public blockchain data and aggregator APIs. ### Community - [News APIs](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#news-apis) (News): Financial news headlines used for signal detection, not republication. Original sources always linked. Cadence: Streaming through the trading day. License: Headlines and URLs consumed under API terms; full articles are linked to the original publisher. ### Market Data - [Equity, FX, and Commodity Market Feeds](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#market-feeds) (Market Data): Spot prices for equities, ETFs, FX pairs, and commodity futures. End-of-day and intraday quotes. Cadence: Near real-time during market hours. License: Aggregated from licensed market-data providers with redistribution terms permitting derived analytics. - [CoinGecko](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#coingecko) (CoinGecko): Spot and derivatives data across 10,000+ cryptocurrencies: prices, volume, dominance, market cap. Cadence: Real-time via public API. License: CoinGecko API Terms of Service. - [CBOE](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#cboe) (CBOE): Options and volatility data: VIX, VIX term structure, SKEW, put/call ratios. Cadence: Daily close values; intraday snapshots where available. License: CBOE data used under redistribution terms for derived analytics. ### Official Government - [Federal Reserve Economic Data](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#fred) (FRED): US and international macro time series: rates, inflation, employment, GDP, housing, credit. Cadence: Daily sync, same-day for high-frequency series. License: Public domain data aggregated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. - [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#bls) (BLS): US labor market and price indices: employment situation, CPI detail, PPI, JOLTS, productivity. Cadence: On BLS release calendar, usually monthly. License: Public domain US Government data. - [US Treasury](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#treasury) (Treasury): Daily Treasury yield curve rates, Treasury auction results, debt outstanding, TGA balance. Cadence: Daily for yields and TGA; per-auction for results. License: Public domain US Government data. - [US Energy Information Administration](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#eia) (EIA): Energy fundamentals: crude inventories, refinery utilization, natural gas storage, production. Cadence: Weekly for inventories; monthly for STEO. License: Public domain US Government data. - [Commodity Futures Trading Commission](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#cftc) (CFTC): Commitments of Traders (CoT) reports, commercial and non-commercial positioning in futures. Cadence: Weekly (Friday release, covering prior Tuesday). License: Public domain US Government data. - [Global Central Banks](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#central-banks) (Central Banks): Policy rate decisions, meeting statements, and macro releases from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, PBoC, RBA, BoC, SNB, and others. Cadence: Real-time on release. License: Public information published by each central bank. ## Side-by-Side Comparisons (522 pairs) - [Gold vs Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-bitcoin): Compare gold and bitcoin prices side by side. Live data, historical performance, and analysis of the two leading store-of-value assets. - [CPI vs Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpi-vs-core-pce): Compare headline CPI and core PCE inflation measures side by side. Understand the gap between the two key US inflation gauges. - [10Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/10y-vs-2y-yield): Compare the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields side by side. Track yield curve dynamics and recession signals in real time. - [Fed Funds Rate vs 10Y Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-funds-vs-10y): Compare the Federal Funds Rate and 10-year Treasury yield. See the gap between Fed policy and market-determined long rates. - [HY Credit Spreads vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/hy-spreads-vs-spy): Compare high yield credit spreads and S&P 500 performance. Credit markets often lead equities at turning points. - [VIX vs HY Credit Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/vix-vs-hy-spreads): Compare the VIX fear gauge and high yield credit spreads. Two key measures of market stress and risk appetite. - [Dollar Index vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dxy-vs-gold): Compare the trade-weighted US dollar and gold price. Track the classic inverse relationship between the dollar and gold. - [S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-qqq): Compare SPY and QQQ performance side by side. Track the gap between broad market and tech-heavy growth equities. - [S&P 500 vs Russell 2000](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-iwm): Compare large-cap S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 performance. Track market breadth and risk appetite. - [WTI Crude Oil vs Natural Gas](https://convextrade.com/compare/wti-vs-natgas): Compare WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas prices. Track the two key US energy benchmarks side by side. - [5Y vs 10Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/5y-breakeven-vs-10y-breakeven): Compare 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates. Understand the term structure of market inflation expectations. - [Recession Probability vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/recession-probability-vs-vix): Compare the Convex Recession Probability Index and VIX. See whether equity volatility is pricing recession risk appropriately. - [Net Liquidity vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/net-liquidity-vs-spy): Compare the Convex Net Liquidity Index and S&P 500. Track the relationship between Fed liquidity and equity performance. - [IG vs HY Credit Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/ig-vs-hy-spreads): Compare investment grade and high yield credit spreads. Track risk differentiation within the corporate bond market. - [Sahm Rule vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahm-rule-vs-unemployment): Compare the Sahm Rule recession indicator and the unemployment rate. Track whether labor market deterioration is accelerating. - [S&P 500 vs Dow Jones](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-dia): Compare SPY and DIA performance side by side. Track tech-heavy S&P 500 against the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average. - [Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000](https://convextrade.com/compare/qqq-vs-iwm): Compare QQQ and IWM performance. Track the gap between mega-cap tech growth and small-cap domestic equities. - [S&P 500 vs Equal-Weight S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-rsp): Compare market-cap weighted SPY against equal-weight RSP. Track whether market breadth is healthy or dangerously narrow. - [S&P 500 vs Emerging Markets](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-eem): Compare US large-cap equities against emerging markets. Track relative performance of developed vs developing economies. - [S&P 500 vs International Developed](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-efa): Compare US equities against international developed markets (Europe, Japan, Australia). Track the US exceptionalism trade. - [S&P 500 vs China Large-Cap](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-fxi): Compare US and Chinese equity performance. Track the two largest economies' stock market relative strength. - [S&P 500 vs Japan](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-ewj): Compare US and Japanese equity performance. Track the divergence between two major developed market economies. - [Technology vs Utilities](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-xlu): Compare the tech sector (XLK) against utilities (XLU). Track the classic growth-vs-defense rotation signal. - [Technology vs Financials](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-xlf): Compare tech and financial sector performance. Track the growth-vs-value rotation and rate sensitivity. - [Energy vs Technology](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-xlk): Compare energy and tech sector performance. Track the old economy vs new economy rotation. - [Consumer Discretionary vs Staples](https://convextrade.com/compare/xly-vs-xlp): Compare cyclical consumer spending against defensive staples. A direct reading of the consumer confidence trade. - [Financials vs Regional Banks](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-kre): Compare broad financials (XLF) against regional banks (KRE). Track systemic vs localized banking stress. - [Healthcare vs Industrials](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlv-vs-xli): Compare defensive healthcare against cyclical industrials. Track the late-cycle rotation into safety. - [Energy Sector vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-spy): Compare energy sector performance against the broad market. Track whether energy is a leader or laggard. - [Real Estate vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-spy): Compare the REIT sector against the broad market. Track how rate sensitivity impacts real estate equities. - [Semiconductors vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/smh-vs-qqq): Compare the semiconductor sector against the broader Nasdaq. Track whether the AI trade is broadening or narrowing. - [30Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/30y-vs-10y-yield): Compare long bond and 10-year Treasury yields. Track the long end of the yield curve and term premium dynamics. - [5Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/5y-vs-2y-yield): Compare medium-term Treasury yields. Track the belly of the curve for Fed rate path expectations. - [TLT vs IEF (Long vs Intermediate Bonds)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tlt-vs-ief): Compare long-duration (20Y+) bonds against intermediate (7-10Y) bonds. Track duration risk in the bond market. - [Long Bonds vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/tlt-vs-spy): Compare Treasury bonds and equities. Track the 60/40 portfolio relationship and risk parity dynamics. - [HY Bonds vs IG Bonds (ETFs)](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-lqd): Compare high yield and investment grade corporate bond ETFs. Track credit risk appetite through tradeable instruments. - [TIPS vs Nominal Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-tlt): Compare inflation-protected bonds against nominal long bonds. A tradeable proxy for inflation expectations. - [Short-Term vs Long-Term Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/compare/shy-vs-tlt): Compare 1-3 year Treasuries against 20+ year bonds. Track the steepening or flattening of the yield curve through ETFs. - [CPI vs PPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpi-vs-ppi): Compare consumer and producer inflation. Track whether pipeline cost pressures are feeding through to consumer prices. - [Shelter CPI vs Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/shelter-cpi-vs-core-cpi): Compare the shelter component against overall core inflation. Track how housing costs dominate the inflation picture. - [Supercore Services vs Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/supercore-vs-core-pce): Compare supercore services (core services ex housing) against core PCE. Track wage-driven inflation pressures. - [Michigan Expectations vs Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/michigan-inflation-vs-breakeven): Compare consumer survey inflation expectations against market-implied expectations. Track whether inflation expectations are anchored. - [Food CPI vs Energy CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/food-cpi-vs-energy-cpi): Compare food and energy inflation components. Track the two most politically sensitive inflation categories. - [Gold Spot vs Gold ETF (GLD)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-silver): Compare gold spot price and GLD ETF tracking. Verify that the most popular gold ETF is tracking spot price effectively. - [WTI vs Brent Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/wti-vs-brent): Compare US WTI and international Brent crude oil benchmarks. Track the spread between domestic and global oil prices. - [Gold vs 10Y Real Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-real-yield): Compare gold price against the 10-year TIPS real yield. Track the fundamental relationship between gold and real rates. - [Copper vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/copper-vs-gold): Compare copper (the economic bellwether) against gold (the safe haven). The copper-to-gold ratio is a growth indicator. - [Oil Price vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/oil-vs-spy): Compare crude oil price against US equities. Track whether rising oil is a growth signal or a tax on the economy. - [Oil ETF vs Energy Equities](https://convextrade.com/compare/uso-vs-xle): Compare the oil commodity ETF against energy sector stocks. Track whether energy stocks are pricing in current or future oil prices. - [Bitcoin vs Ethereum](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-eth): Compare Bitcoin and Ethereum prices side by side. Track the two largest cryptocurrencies and their evolving relationship. - [Bitcoin vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-spy): Compare Bitcoin against US equities. Track whether Bitcoin acts as a risk asset or an uncorrelated alternative. - [Bitcoin vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-qqq): Compare Bitcoin against the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Track the high-beta growth asset correlation. - [Bitcoin vs Long Bonds](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-tlt): Compare Bitcoin against long-duration Treasury bonds. Two assets with opposite responses to rate expectations. - [Bitcoin Funding Rate vs Bitcoin Price](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-funding-vs-btc): Compare Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate against spot price. Track leverage and positioning in the derivatives market. - [Dollar Index vs Emerging Markets](https://convextrade.com/compare/dxy-vs-eem): Compare the trade-weighted dollar against emerging market equities. Track the dollar wrecking ball effect. - [Dollar ETF vs Gold ETF](https://convextrade.com/compare/uup-vs-gld): Compare the dollar bull ETF against gold. Track the inverse relationship through tradeable instruments. - [EUR/USD vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurusd-vs-dxy): Compare the euro exchange rate against the broad trade-weighted dollar. Track whether euro moves are driving the dollar or vice versa. - [JPY/USD vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpyusd-vs-dxy): Compare the yen exchange rate against the dollar index. Track BOJ-Fed policy divergence through the yen. - [Unemployment Rate vs JOLTS Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/compare/unemployment-vs-jolts): Compare the unemployment rate against job openings. Track the Beveridge curve and labor market tightness. - [Initial Claims vs Continuing Claims](https://convextrade.com/compare/initial-claims-vs-continuing-claims): Compare weekly initial jobless claims against continuing claims. Track whether layoffs are accelerating and whether fired workers are finding new jobs. - [Nonfarm Payrolls vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/nonfarm-vs-unemployment): Compare job creation against the unemployment rate. Track whether the labor market is in expansion or contraction. - [Average Hourly Earnings vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/wages-vs-cpi): Compare wage growth against consumer inflation. Track whether workers are gaining or losing purchasing power. - [Quits Rate vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/quits-rate-vs-unemployment): Compare the JOLTS quits rate against unemployment. Track labor market confidence and worker bargaining power. - [Leading Economic Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/leading-index-vs-spy): Compare the Conference Board LEI against equities. Track whether economic leading indicators support the stock market rally. - [Industrial Production vs Capacity Utilization](https://convextrade.com/compare/industrial-production-vs-capacity): Compare factory output against how much capacity is being used. Track whether the industrial sector is running hot or cold. - [New Orders vs Inventory-to-Sales Ratio](https://convextrade.com/compare/new-orders-vs-inventories): Compare durable goods new orders against the inventory-to-sales ratio. Track the manufacturing cycle. - [Retail Sales vs Consumer Sentiment](https://convextrade.com/compare/retail-sales-vs-consumer-sentiment): Compare actual consumer spending against how consumers feel. Track the gap between action and attitude. - [Housing Starts vs Building Permits](https://convextrade.com/compare/housing-starts-vs-permits): Compare actual construction starts against permits filed. Track the housing pipeline and builder confidence. - [30Y Mortgage Rate vs Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage-rate-vs-housing-starts): Compare mortgage rates against new construction. Track the rate sensitivity of the housing market. - [Case-Shiller Home Prices vs Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/home-prices-vs-mortgage-rate): Compare home prices against borrowing costs. Track the affordability squeeze in the US housing market. - [Homebuilders vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-spy): Compare the homebuilder ETF against the broad market. Track housing sector strength as an economic leading indicator. - [BBB vs AAA Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/bbb-vs-aaa-spread): Compare the lowest investment grade spread against the highest. Track quality differentiation within investment grade credit. - [Financial Stress Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/financial-stress-vs-spy): Compare the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index against equities. Track whether equity prices reflect or ignore financial system stress. - [Chicago NFCI vs HY Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/chicago-nfci-vs-hy-spreads): Compare the National Financial Conditions Index against high yield credit spreads. Two different measures of financial system health. - [VIX vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/vix-vs-spy): Compare the VIX fear gauge against the S&P 500. Track the inverse relationship between volatility and equity prices. - [Fed Balance Sheet vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-balance-sheet-vs-spy): Compare the Federal Reserve balance sheet size against US equities. Track the liquidity-equity relationship. - [Reverse Repo vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/rrp-vs-fed-balance-sheet): Compare the overnight reverse repo facility against the Fed balance sheet. Track how liquidity is distributed in the financial system. - [M2 Money Supply vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/m2-vs-cpi): Compare money supply growth against consumer inflation. Track the monetarist argument for inflation causation. - [Bank Reserves vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/bank-reserves-vs-spy): Compare total bank reserves at the Fed against equities. Track the plumbing of the financial system. - [Yield Curve vs Leading Economic Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/yield-curve-vs-leading-index): Compare the 10Y-2Y yield curve against the Conference Board LEI. Two classic recession indicators side by side. - [Recession Probability vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/recession-probability-vs-unemployment): Compare the Convex Recession Probability Index against the unemployment rate. Track whether recession risk is rising before it shows up in jobs data. - [Sahm Rule vs Initial Claims](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahm-rule-vs-initial-claims): Compare the Sahm Rule recession indicator against weekly initial claims. Track two different views of labor market deterioration. - [Fear & Greed Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/fear-greed-vs-spy): Compare the CNN Fear & Greed Index against US equities. Track the contrarian value of extreme sentiment readings. - [Put/Call Ratio vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/put-call-vs-vix): Compare the equity put/call ratio against the VIX. Track whether options flow confirms or contradicts implied volatility. - [CFTC Oil Positioning vs WTI Price](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-oil-positioning-vs-wti): Compare speculative positioning in oil futures against the oil price. Track whether the crowd is leaning the right way. - [CFTC Gold Positioning vs Gold Price](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-gold-positioning-vs-gold): Compare speculative positioning in gold futures against the gold price. Track whether gold moves have positioning support. - [CFTC S&P 500 Positioning vs SPY](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-sp500-positioning-vs-spy): Compare speculative futures positioning in the S&P 500 against the index price. Track institutional conviction. - [CFTC Bitcoin Positioning vs BTC](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-btc-positioning-vs-btc): Compare CME Bitcoin futures positioning against the spot price. Track institutional crypto sentiment. - [Oil Price vs Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/oil-vs-breakeven-inflation): Compare crude oil price against market inflation expectations. Track whether energy prices are driving inflation fears. - [Fed Funds Rate vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-funds-vs-cpi): Compare the Fed's policy rate against consumer inflation. Track whether monetary policy is ahead of or behind the inflation curve. - [Personal Savings Rate vs Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/savings-rate-vs-consumer-credit): Compare how much Americans save against how much they borrow on credit cards. Track the consumer balance sheet. - [Consumer Confidence vs Real Spending](https://convextrade.com/compare/consumer-confidence-vs-spending): Compare Michigan consumer sentiment against real personal consumption expenditures. Track the attitude-behavior gap. - [Business Loans vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/business-loans-vs-fed-funds): Compare commercial bank lending to the policy rate. Track whether rate hikes are restricting credit growth. - [Auto Sales vs Non-Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/auto-sales-vs-consumer-credit): Compare vehicle sales against installment loans. Track the big-ticket consumer spending cycle. - [Bank Lending Standards vs HY Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/bank-lending-standards-vs-hy-spreads): Compare how tight banks say their standards are versus how the market prices credit risk. Two views of credit conditions. - [ECB Deposit Rate vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/ecb-rate-vs-fed-funds): Compare European and US policy rates. Track transatlantic monetary policy divergence. - [BOE Bank Rate vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/boe-rate-vs-fed-funds): Compare UK and US policy rates. Track the pound-dollar monetary policy spread. - [DAX 40 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/dax-vs-spy): Compare German and US equity performance. Track the eurozone's industrial economy against the US tech-driven market. - [FTSE 100 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/ftse-vs-spy): Compare UK and US equity performance. Track the value-vs-growth global rotation. - [Euro Stoxx 50 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurostoxx-vs-spy): Compare eurozone blue chips against US equities. Track European vs American equity market relative strength. - [UK 10Y Gilt vs US 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/uk-gilt-vs-us-10y): Compare UK and US government bond yields. Track the transatlantic rate spread and relative fiscal risk. - [UK CPI vs US CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/uk-cpi-vs-us-cpi): Compare UK and US inflation trajectories. Track which economy is winning the inflation fight. - [VSTOXX vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-vix): Compare European and US equity volatility. Track whether fear is global or concentrated in one region. - [Net Liquidity vs Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/compare/net-liquidity-vs-btc): Compare the Convex Net Liquidity Index against Bitcoin. Track whether crypto moves are liquidity-driven. - [Recession Index vs HY Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/recession-index-vs-hy-spreads): Compare the Convex Recession Probability Index against credit spreads. Track whether credit markets are pricing recession appropriately. - [Convex Risk Appetite vs Fear & Greed](https://convextrade.com/compare/risk-appetite-vs-fear-greed): Compare the Convex Risk Appetite Index against CNN's Fear & Greed Index. Two different approaches to measuring market sentiment. - [Total Consumer Debt vs Savings Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/total-consumer-debt-vs-savings): Compare total consumer credit outstanding against the personal savings rate. Track whether consumers are building or burning their cushion. - [Credit Card Delinquency vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/credit-card-delinquency-vs-unemployment): Compare credit card delinquency rates against unemployment. Track whether financial stress is appearing before the labor market cracks. - [Consumer Credit vs Retail Sales](https://convextrade.com/compare/consumer-credit-vs-retail-sales): Compare credit card borrowing against retail spending. Track whether growth is being financed by debt. - [Trade Balance vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/trade-deficit-vs-dxy): Compare the US trade deficit against dollar strength. Track the currency implications of trade imbalances. - [Real GDP vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-unemployment): Compare economic output against labor market slack. Track Okun's Law and the relationship between growth and employment. - [Labor Force Participation vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/participation-rate-vs-unemployment): Compare who is in the labor force against who can't find work. Track the true state of labor utilization. - [U-6 Underemployment vs U-3 Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/u6-vs-unemployment): Compare the broad underemployment rate against the headline unemployment rate. Track hidden labor market slack. - [EM Dollar Index vs Broad Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/em-dollar-vs-dxy): Compare the dollar against emerging market currencies versus all trading partners. Track where dollar strength is concentrated. - [Bitcoin vs US Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-dollar): Compare bitcoin against the broad dollar index. Track bitcoin's sensitivity to global dollar liquidity conditions. - [Bitcoin vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-10y-yield): Compare bitcoin against the 10-year US Treasury yield. Track how long-duration rates affect the leading digital asset. - [Bitcoin vs Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-fed-funds): Compare bitcoin against the Federal Funds Rate. Track bitcoin's sensitivity to monetary policy tightness. - [Bitcoin vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-m2): Compare bitcoin against M2 money supply growth. Track the debasement thesis that drives long-run bitcoin accumulation. - [Ethereum vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-spy): Compare ethereum to the S&P 500. Track ethereum's behavior as a high-beta risk asset versus broad US equities. - [Ethereum vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-gold): Compare ethereum against gold. Track the smart-contract platform token versus the oldest monetary asset. - [Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-qqq): Compare ethereum to the Nasdaq 100. Track whether ethereum is trading as high-beta tech or pricing crypto-specific drivers. - [Ethereum vs US Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-dollar): Compare ethereum to the broad dollar index. Track dollar liquidity as a driver of ethereum returns. - [Bitcoin vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-vix): Compare bitcoin against the VIX fear index. Track crypto sensitivity to equity volatility shocks. - [Bitcoin vs High Yield Credit Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-hy-spreads): Compare bitcoin against HY credit spreads. Track whether crypto is leading or lagging real credit market stress. - [Gold vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-oil): Compare gold and WTI crude oil. Track the gold-oil ratio as a recession and inflation regime signal. - [Gold vs Brent Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-brent): Compare gold against Brent crude oil prices. Track the global gold-oil ratio across commodity and macro cycles. - [Gold vs Freeport (FCX)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-fcx): Compare gold against Freeport-McMoRan, a leading copper producer. Precious versus industrial metals through the producer lens. - [Gold vs TIPS Bond ETF](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-tips): Compare gold against the TIPS ETF. Track the two primary inflation hedges and their relative performance. - [Gold vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-spy): Compare gold and the S&P 500. Track the classic safe-haven versus risk-asset ratio across cycles. - [WTI Oil vs Energy Sector (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/wti-vs-xle): Compare WTI crude oil against the XLE energy ETF. Track whether oil producers are lagging or leading crude. - [WTI Oil vs US Dollar](https://convextrade.com/compare/oil-vs-dollar): Compare WTI crude against the US dollar index. Track the classic inverse relationship between oil and dollar. - [Copper vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/copper-vs-oil): Compare copper against WTI crude oil. Two industrial commodities that behave very differently through cycles. - [Copper vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/copper-vs-spy): Compare copper against the S&P 500. Track Dr. Copper as a growth signal for equities. - [Gold vs Broad Commodity Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-commodity-index): Compare gold against the IMF all-commodity index. Track gold's behavior versus the broader commodity complex. - [Nasdaq 100 vs Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/qqq-vs-xlk): Compare QQQ against XLK. Track two overlapping but distinct tech-heavy ETFs and where concentration differs. - [Equal-Weight S&P (RSP) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsp-vs-iwm): Compare equal-weight S&P 500 against the small-cap Russell 2000. Track mid-cap versus small-cap leadership. - [China (FXI) vs Emerging Markets (EEM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/fxi-vs-eem): Compare China large-cap ETF against the broader emerging markets ETF. Track China-specific versus broad EM flows. - [Germany (EWG) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/ewg-vs-spy): Compare German equities against the S&P 500. Track European cyclicals versus US large caps. - [DAX vs Germany ETF (EWG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dax-vs-ewg): Compare the DAX index directly against the US-listed EWG German ETF. Track currency-adjusted exposure. - [CAC 40 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/cac40-vs-spy): Compare the French CAC 40 against the S&P 500. Track luxury-led European equities versus US markets. - [Emerging Markets (EEM) vs Developed ex-US (EFA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/eem-vs-efa): Compare emerging markets against developed markets outside the US. Track EM versus DM rotation. - [Apple (AAPL) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-spy): Track Apple against the broader S&P 500. Monitor mega-cap leadership and consumer tech cycles. - [Apple (AAPL) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-qqq): Compare Apple against the Nasdaq 100. Gauge whether Apple is leading or lagging the broader Nasdaq complex. - [Microsoft (MSFT) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-spy): Track Microsoft against the S&P 500. Monitor enterprise software and AI infrastructure leadership. - [Microsoft (MSFT) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-qqq): Compare Microsoft against the Nasdaq 100 to isolate Microsoft-specific performance. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-spy): Track Nvidia against the S&P 500. Monitor the AI capex cycle and semiconductor leadership. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Semiconductor ETF (SMH)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-smh): Compare Nvidia against the semiconductor ETF. Isolate Nvidia-specific leadership within semis. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-qqq): Track Nvidia against the Nasdaq 100 to isolate AI-driven outperformance. - [Alphabet (GOOGL) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/alphabet-vs-spy): Track Alphabet against the S&P 500. Monitor search, advertising, and AI cloud leadership. - [Amazon (AMZN) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-spy): Track Amazon against the S&P 500. Monitor e-commerce and AWS cloud leadership. - [Meta (META) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/meta-vs-spy): Track Meta Platforms against the S&P 500. Monitor social media advertising and AI infrastructure. - [Tesla (TSLA) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-spy): Track Tesla against the S&P 500. Monitor EV demand and Tesla-specific risk appetite. - [Tesla (TSLA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-qqq): Compare Tesla against the Nasdaq 100. Track speculative leadership within big tech. - [JPMorgan (JPM) vs Financial Sector (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-xlf): Track JPMorgan against the financial sector ETF. Monitor mega-bank leadership within financials. - [JPMorgan (JPM) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-spy): Track JPMorgan against the S&P 500. Monitor the banking cycle and yield curve sensitivity. - [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs Energy Sector (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/exxon-vs-xle): Track ExxonMobil against the energy sector ETF. Monitor integrated oil leadership. - [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/exxon-vs-spy): Track ExxonMobil against the S&P 500. Gauge the energy sector macro rotation. - [Walmart (WMT) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/walmart-vs-xlp): Track Walmart against the consumer staples ETF. Monitor value retail leadership. - [Walmart (WMT) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/walmart-vs-xly): Track Walmart against the consumer discretionary ETF. Monitor trade-down versus discretionary spending. - [UnitedHealth (UNH) vs Healthcare Sector (XLV)](https://convextrade.com/compare/unitedhealth-vs-xlv): Track UnitedHealth against the healthcare sector ETF. Monitor managed care leadership. - [UnitedHealth (UNH) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/unitedhealth-vs-spy): Track UnitedHealth against the S&P 500. Monitor healthcare defensiveness versus broad market. - [Caterpillar (CAT) vs Industrial Sector (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/caterpillar-vs-xli): Track Caterpillar against the industrial sector ETF. Monitor heavy machinery and global construction cycles. - [Caterpillar (CAT) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/caterpillar-vs-spy): Track Caterpillar against the S&P 500. Monitor global capex and commodity-cycle leadership. - [Apple (AAPL) vs Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-microsoft): Compare the two largest US tech companies. Track consumer hardware versus enterprise software leadership. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-microsoft): Compare the two dominant AI infrastructure plays. Track chips versus cloud software leadership. - [Alphabet (GOOGL) vs Meta (META)](https://convextrade.com/compare/alphabet-vs-meta): Compare Alphabet and Meta. Track the two digital advertising giants head to head. - [Tesla (TSLA) vs Nvidia (NVDA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-nvidia): Compare the two highest-beta mega caps. Track retail speculation versus AI infrastructure. - [Utilities (XLU) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlu-vs-spy): Track utilities against the S&P 500. Monitor defensive rotation and bond-proxy demand. - [Consumer Staples (XLP) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlp-vs-spy): Compare consumer staples against the broader S&P 500. Monitor defensive rotation. - [Healthcare (XLV) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlv-vs-spy): Track healthcare against the S&P 500. Monitor defensive leadership and healthcare-specific catalysts. - [Communication Services (XLC) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlc-vs-spy): Track communication services against the S&P 500. Monitor mega-cap media and telecom leadership. - [Communication (XLC) vs Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlc-vs-xlk): Compare communication services against technology. Isolate platform-media versus pure software and chips. - [Industrials (XLI) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xli-vs-spy): Track industrials against the S&P 500. Monitor cyclical capex and reshoring themes. - [Industrials (XLI) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xli-vs-xly): Compare industrials against consumer discretionary. Track capex-driven versus consumer-driven cyclicals. - [Financials (XLF) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-spy): Track financials against the S&P 500. Monitor the banking cycle and yield curve sensitivity. - [Regional Banks (KRE) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/kre-vs-spy): Track regional banks against the S&P 500. Monitor banking stress and NIM dynamics. - [Real Estate (XLRE) vs Utilities (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-xlu): Compare real estate against utilities. Two rate-sensitive defensives head to head. - [Real Estate (XLRE) vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-tlt): Compare real estate against long-duration Treasuries. Both rate-sensitive but with different risks. - [Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/smh-vs-spy): Track the semiconductor ETF against the S&P 500. Monitor the chip cycle and AI infrastructure. - [Semiconductors (SMH) vs Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/smh-vs-xlk): Compare semiconductors against the broader tech sector. Isolate chip leadership within tech. - [Homebuilders (XHB) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-xly): Compare homebuilders against consumer discretionary. Isolate housing-specific strength. - [Energy (XLE) vs Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-xlf): Compare energy against financials. Two cyclicals with different inflation sensitivities. - [Energy (XLE) vs Industrials (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-xli): Compare energy against industrials. Upstream commodity exposure versus capex cycles. - [Healthcare (XLV) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlv-vs-xlp): Compare two defensive sectors. Track healthcare-specific versus consumption defensiveness. - [Utilities (XLU) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlu-vs-xlp): Compare two defensive sectors. Track bond-proxy versus consumer-defensive leadership. - [Real Estate (XLRE) vs Homebuilders (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-xhb): Compare REITs against homebuilders. Existing property versus new construction leadership. - [10Y Treasury vs 10Y-3M Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/10y-vs-3m-yield): Track the 10-year Treasury yield alongside the 10Y-3M spread. Monitor recession-signal yield curve dynamics. - [10Y vs 5Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs10-vs-dgs5): Compare the 10-year and 5-year Treasury yields. Track the belly versus long-end curve shape. - [30Y vs 5Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs30-vs-dgs5): Compare the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields. Monitor long-end term premium and inflation expectations. - [1Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs1-vs-dgs2): Compare 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Track near-term Fed policy expectations. - [10Y-3M Spread vs 10Y-2Y Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/t10y3m-vs-t10y2y): Compare the two most-watched yield curve measures. Track which recession signal activates first. - [BAA Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/baa-vs-10y): Compare Moody's BAA corporate yield against the 10-year Treasury. Track credit risk premium. - [AAA Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/aaa-vs-10y): Compare Moody's AAA corporate yield against the 10-year Treasury. Monitor top-tier credit risk. - [BAA vs AAA Corporate Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/baa-vs-aaa): Compare the BAA corporate yield against AAA. Track credit quality differentiation. - [ICE BofA IG Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/ig-corp-yield-vs-10y): Compare investment-grade corporate yields against the 10Y Treasury. Monitor IG credit all-in yield. - [HY Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/hy-corp-yield-vs-10y): Compare high-yield corporate yields against the 10Y Treasury. Track junk bond all-in yield. - [10Y Term Premium vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/threefytp-vs-dgs10): Compare the estimated 10Y term premium against the 10Y yield. Decompose yield into rate-expectations and term premium. - [Effective Fed Funds vs SOFR](https://convextrade.com/compare/effr-vs-sofr): Compare the effective fed funds rate against SOFR. Monitor money market plumbing. - [Fed Funds Target Upper vs Effective Fed Funds](https://convextrade.com/compare/dfedtaru-vs-fedfunds): Compare the Fed's target upper bound against the effective fed funds rate. Monitor policy implementation. - [Prime Rate vs Fed Funds](https://convextrade.com/compare/dprime-vs-fedfunds): Compare the bank prime rate against the Fed Funds rate. Track lending-rate transmission. - [10Y TIPS Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/dfii10-vs-dgs10): Compare the 10Y real (TIPS) yield against the nominal 10Y yield. Isolate real-rate versus inflation components. - [5Y TIPS vs 10Y TIPS Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dfii5-vs-dfii10): Compare 5-year and 10-year real yields. Track the real-yield curve shape. - [5Y5Y Forward Inflation vs 5Y Breakeven](https://convextrade.com/compare/t5yifr-vs-t5yie): Compare the 5Y5Y forward inflation expectation against the current 5Y breakeven. - [Credit Card Delinquency vs C&I Lending Standards](https://convextrade.com/compare/drcclacbs-vs-drtscilm): Compare consumer credit card delinquencies against commercial lending tightening. Track consumer versus business credit stress. - [Credit Card Standards vs Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/drtsclcc-vs-revolsl): Compare bank credit card tightening against outstanding revolving credit. Track credit card supply versus demand. - [St. Louis Financial Stress vs Chicago NFCI](https://convextrade.com/compare/stlfsi4-vs-nfci): Compare the two primary financial stress indices. Cross-validate financial conditions signals. - [Adjusted NFCI vs NFCI](https://convextrade.com/compare/anfci-vs-nfci): Compare the adjusted financial conditions index against the raw NFCI. Isolate unusual tightness. - [TIP vs Short Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-shy): Compare TIPS against short-duration nominal Treasuries. Track inflation protection demand. - [IEF vs SHY (Intermediate vs Short Treasury)](https://convextrade.com/compare/ief-vs-shy): Compare 7-10 year against 1-3 year Treasuries. Track curve steepening and duration demand. - [4-Week Average Initial Claims vs Weekly Initial Claims](https://convextrade.com/compare/ic4wsa-vs-icsa): Compare the 4-week smoothed initial claims against weekly initial claims. Track noise versus trend. - [Employment-Population Ratio vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/emratio-vs-unrate): Compare the employment-population ratio against the unemployment rate. Track labor force participation effects. - [Labor Force Participation vs Employment-Population Ratio](https://convextrade.com/compare/civpart-vs-emratio): Compare the participation rate against the employment-population ratio. Track the two key labor supply measures. - [Average Weekly Hours vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/awhaetp-vs-payems): Compare average weekly hours worked against nonfarm payrolls. Track labor-demand intensity. - [Quits Rate vs Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/compare/jtsqur-vs-jtsjol): Compare the quits rate against job openings. Track worker confidence versus labor demand. - [Average Hourly Earnings vs PPI Final Demand Services](https://convextrade.com/compare/ces0500000003-vs-ppifis): Compare wage growth against services PPI. Track labor-cost pass-through. - [Sahm Rule Indicator vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahmrealtime-vs-payems): Compare the Sahm recession indicator against payrolls growth. Monitor labor-market-based recession odds. - [Shelter CPI vs 30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/cusr0000seha-vs-mortgage30us): Compare shelter CPI (rent of shelter) against the 30Y mortgage rate. Track housing cost pressures. - [Used Vehicles CPI vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/cusr0000seta02-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare used vehicle prices against oil prices. Track idiosyncratic versus commodity-driven inflation. - [Core CPI vs Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpilfesl-vs-pcepilfe): Compare core CPI against core PCE (the Fed's preferred measure). Track the two main core inflation gauges. - [PPI Final Demand Services vs Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/ppifis-vs-cpilfesl): Compare services producer prices against core consumer inflation. Track B2B versus consumer inflation. - [Core PCE vs Headline PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/pcepilfe-vs-pcepi): Compare core PCE against headline PCE. Track food and energy contributions to the Fed's preferred gauge. - [Michigan Inflation Expectations vs 5Y Breakeven](https://convextrade.com/compare/mich-vs-t5yie): Compare survey-based inflation expectations against market-implied breakevens. - [Industrial Production vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/indpro-vs-spy): Compare industrial production against the S&P 500. Track real-economy growth versus equity valuations. - [Durable Goods Orders vs Core Capital Goods Orders](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgorder-vs-neworder): Compare headline durable goods orders against the core capital goods measure. Isolate business investment. - [Retail Sales (Ex-Food Services) vs Real Consumer Spending](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsxfs-vs-pcec96): Compare retail sales against total real consumer spending. Track goods versus total consumption. - [Real Disposable Income vs Real Consumer Spending](https://convextrade.com/compare/dspic96-vs-pcec96): Compare real disposable income against real consumer spending. Track income-spending gap. - [Nominal GDP vs Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-gdpc1): Compare nominal GDP against real GDP. Track inflation contribution to nominal growth. - [Corporate Profits After Tax vs GDP](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpatax-vs-gdp): Compare corporate profits against GDP. Track profit share of economy and margins. - [Philly Fed Leading Index vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/usslind-vs-unrate): Compare the Philadelphia Fed leading index against unemployment. Track leading versus coincident recession signals. - [OECD US Leading Indicator vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/usalolitonostsam-vs-spy): Compare the OECD US leading indicator against the S&P 500. Track growth expectations versus equities. - [Months Supply of Homes vs Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/compare/msacsr-vs-houst): Compare new home months-of-supply against housing starts. Track inventory-versus-construction dynamics. - [New Home Sales vs Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/compare/hsn1f-vs-houst): Compare new home sales against housing starts. Track demand absorption versus construction activity. - [New Home Sales vs Months Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/hsn1f-vs-msacsr): Compare new home sales against months of supply. Track demand strength relative to inventory. - [Case-Shiller Home Prices vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/csushpinsa-vs-cpi): Compare the Case-Shiller home price index against headline CPI. Track real home-price appreciation. - [Case-Shiller Home Prices vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/csushpinsa-vs-spy): Compare home prices against the S&P 500. Track housing wealth versus equity wealth. - [30Y Mortgage Rate vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage-vs-10y): Compare the 30-year mortgage rate against the 10-year Treasury. Track the mortgage-rate spread. - [Building Permits vs Homebuilders ETF (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/compare/permit-vs-xhb): Compare building permits against homebuilder stocks. Track fundamentals versus equity expectations. - [Brent Crude vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/brent-vs-spy): Compare Brent crude against the S&P 500. Track global oil versus US equities. - [Brent-WTI Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/brent-vs-wti-spread): Track the Brent-WTI differential. Monitor US versus global crude supply dynamics. - [Natural Gas vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/natgas-vs-spy): Compare natural gas against the S&P 500. Track the commodity most sensitive to weather and LNG demand. - [Henry Hub Spot vs Natural Gas Futures](https://convextrade.com/compare/dhhngsp-vs-natgas): Compare Henry Hub spot prices against natural gas futures. Track spot versus expected prices. - [IMF All Commodity Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/pallfnfindexm-vs-spy): Compare the IMF broad commodity index against the S&P 500. Track commodities versus equities. - [Commodity Index vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/pallfnfindexm-vs-dtwexbgs): Compare broad commodities against the dollar. Track the classic inverse relationship. - [Freeport-McMoRan vs Copper](https://convextrade.com/compare/fcx-vs-pcoppusdm): Compare the largest copper miner stock against the commodity. Track operating leverage and equity premium. - [Freeport-McMoRan vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/fcx-vs-spy): Compare the copper miner against the S&P 500. Track copper-cycle leadership within equities. - [Agricultural Commodities (DBA) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/dba-vs-spy): Compare the agricultural commodity ETF against the S&P 500. Track ag-inflation versus equities. - [Dollar Index (DXY) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/dxy-vs-spy): Compare the broad dollar index against the S&P 500. Track dollar-equity interactions. - [USD/CNY vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexchus-vs-dtwexbgs): Compare the USD/CNY exchange rate against the dollar index. Track China-specific versus broad dollar moves. - [USD/JPY vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexjpus-vs-dgs10): Compare the USD/JPY exchange rate against the 10Y Treasury yield. Track the yen carry trade. - [EUR/USD vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexuseu-vs-dgs10): Compare EUR/USD against the 10Y Treasury yield. Track rate-differential-driven euro moves. - [GBP/USD vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/gbpusd-vs-dxy): Compare the British pound against the broad dollar index. Isolate sterling-specific moves. - [EUR/GBP vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurgbp-vs-dxy): Compare the EUR/GBP cross against the dollar index. Isolate Europe-UK relative dynamics. - [USD/BRL vs EM Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexbzus-vs-dtwexemegs): Compare USD/BRL against the emerging markets dollar index. Track Brazil-specific risk. - [Real Broad Dollar Index vs Nominal Broad Dollar](https://convextrade.com/compare/rbusbis-vs-dtwexbgs): Compare the BIS real broad dollar index against the nominal broad dollar. Track real versus nominal dollar moves. - [UUP Dollar ETF vs Broad Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/uup-vs-dtwexbgs): Compare the tradable dollar ETF against the broad dollar index. Track ETF tracking and investor positioning. - [Fed Balance Sheet vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/walcl-vs-tlt): Compare the Fed balance sheet against long-duration Treasuries. Track QE and long-rate dynamics. - [Reverse Repo vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/rrpontsyd-vs-m2sl): Compare Fed reverse repo balances against M2 money supply. Track money-market versus broad money dynamics. - [Bank Reserves vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/wresbal-vs-walcl): Compare bank reserves against the Fed balance sheet. Track reserves as a share of Fed liabilities. - [Treasury General Account vs Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/compare/wtregen-vs-rrpontsyd): Compare the Treasury General Account against reverse repo balances. Track liquidity plumbing dynamics. - [Monetary Base vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/bogmbase-vs-m2sl): Compare the Fed's monetary base against broad money (M2). Track the money multiplier. - [Total Bank Reserves vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/totresns-vs-walcl): Compare total bank reserves against the Fed balance sheet. Track reserves as QE transmission. - [Monetary Base vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/bogmbase-vs-walcl): Compare the monetary base against the Fed balance sheet. Track base money transmission. - [IG Corporate Spread vs AAA Corporate Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/bamlc0a0cm-vs-bamlc0a1caaa): Compare the broad IG spread against the AAA corporate spread. Track broad IG versus top-tier credit. - [BBB Spread vs HY Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/bamlc0a4cbbb-vs-bamlh0a0hym2): Compare BBB (lowest IG) against high yield spreads. Track the credit quality cliff. - [High Yield Bonds (HYG) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-spy): Compare high-yield corporate bonds against the S&P 500. Track credit versus equity risk appetite. - [Investment Grade Bonds (LQD) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/lqd-vs-spy): Compare investment-grade corporate bonds against the S&P 500. Track IG bond performance versus equities. - [IG Corporate Bonds (LQD) vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/lqd-vs-tlt): Compare IG corporate bonds against long Treasuries. Isolate IG credit risk from duration. - [High Yield (HYG) vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-tlt): Compare high-yield bonds against long Treasuries. Track risk-on credit versus safe-haven duration. - [Bitcoin vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-walcl): Compare bitcoin against the Fed balance sheet. Track liquidity-sensitive crypto dynamics. - [Ethereum vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/eth-vs-tlt): Compare ethereum against long Treasuries. Track ETH as a pure-play risk asset. - [Germany (EWG) vs Japan (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/ewg-vs-ewj): Compare German against Japanese equities. Track European industrial versus Asian reflation. - [China (FXI) vs Japan (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/fxi-vs-ewj): Compare Chinese against Japanese equities. Track Asian growth versus reflation themes. - [DAX vs FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/dax-vs-ftse): Compare the German DAX against the UK FTSE 100. Track Europe-UK leadership. - [CAC 40 vs DAX](https://convextrade.com/compare/cac40-vs-dax): Compare the French CAC 40 against the German DAX. Track luxury versus industrial Europe. - [Euro Stoxx 50 vs DAX](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurostoxx-vs-dax): Compare the broad Eurozone index against the DAX. Isolate Germany-specific versus broad European leadership. - [VSTOXX vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-spy): Compare Eurozone implied volatility against the S&P 500. Track European risk-off signals. - [Emerging Markets (EEM) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/eem-vs-iwm): Compare EM against US small caps. Track high-beta cyclicals globally. - [10Y Treasury Yield vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs10-vs-cpi): Compare the 10Y Treasury against headline CPI. Track real yields implicit in the relationship. - [10Y Treasury Yield vs Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs10-vs-gdpc1): Compare the 10Y Treasury against real GDP. Track yields versus economic growth. - [WTI Oil vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/dcoilwtico-vs-dgs10): Compare WTI crude oil against the 10Y Treasury yield. Track inflation signal versus rates. - [WTI Oil vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/dcoilwtico-vs-dtwexbgs): Compare WTI crude against the dollar index. Track the classic inverse commodity-dollar relationship. - [Gold vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-vixcls): Compare gold against the VIX. Track two different flight-to-safety signals. - [Dollar Index vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/dtwexbgs-vs-dgs10): Compare the broad dollar index against the 10Y Treasury. Track rate-dollar relationship. - [Fed Balance Sheet vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/walcl-vs-m2): Compare the Fed balance sheet against M2. Track QE transmission to broad money. - [Reverse Repo vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/rrpontsyd-vs-spy): Compare Fed reverse repo balances against the S&P 500. Track liquidity drain versus equity resilience. - [Nonfarm Payrolls vs Retail Sales](https://convextrade.com/compare/payems-vs-rsxfs): Compare payrolls growth against retail sales. Track labor market versus consumer spending. - [Nonfarm Payrolls vs Real Consumer Spending](https://convextrade.com/compare/payems-vs-pcec96): Compare payrolls against total real consumer spending. Track job growth versus consumption. - [Unemployment Rate vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/unrate-vs-t10y2y): Compare unemployment against the yield curve. Track two distinct recession signals. - [2Y vs 30Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs2-vs-dgs30): Compare the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields. Track the broadest yield curve shape. - [1Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs1-vs-dgs10): Compare the 1-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Track short-to-long curve shape. - [High Yield (HYG) vs Short Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-shy): Compare high-yield bonds against short Treasuries. Track credit risk premium. - [IG Corporate (LQD) vs Short Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/lqd-vs-shy): Compare IG corporates against short Treasuries. Track IG credit plus duration. - [Building Permits vs 30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/permit-vs-mortgage30us): Compare building permits against the 30-year mortgage rate. Track forward housing construction versus rates. - [Housing Starts vs Homebuilders (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/compare/houst-vs-xhb): Compare housing starts against the homebuilders ETF. Track fundamentals versus equity expectations. - [Case-Shiller Home Prices vs Homebuilders (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/compare/csushpinsa-vs-xhb): Compare home prices against homebuilder stocks. Track price appreciation versus equity leadership. - [CPI vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpi-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare headline CPI against WTI crude oil. Track oil contribution to headline inflation. - [Headline CPI vs Headline PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpiaucsl-vs-pcepi): Compare headline CPI against headline PCE. Track the two main inflation gauges. - [Revolving Credit vs Consumer Sentiment](https://convextrade.com/compare/revolsl-vs-umcsent): Compare revolving credit against consumer sentiment. Track credit growth versus sentiment gap. - [Non-Revolving Credit vs Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/nonrevsl-vs-revolsl): Compare auto/student loan growth against credit card balances. Track consumer credit composition. - [Total Auto Sales vs Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/totalsa-vs-revolsl): Compare auto sales against revolving credit. Track big-ticket spending versus credit card reliance. - [Total Consumer Credit vs Real Consumer Spending](https://convextrade.com/compare/totalsl-vs-pcec96): Compare total consumer credit against real consumption. Track credit intensity of spending. - [Gold vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-dgs10): Compare gold against the nominal 10Y Treasury yield. Track real-rate-driven gold dynamics. - [Gold vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-m2): Compare gold against M2. Track gold as a monetary debasement hedge. - [Gold vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-walcl): Compare gold against the Fed balance sheet. Track gold as QE-sensitive asset. - [Oil ETF (USO) vs Dollar ETF (UUP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/uso-vs-uup): Compare oil against dollar via liquid ETFs. Track the oil-dollar inverse relationship. - [Oil ETF (USO) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/uso-vs-spy): Compare oil exposure via USO against the broad market. Track commodity versus equity cycles. - [Commodity Index vs Copper](https://convextrade.com/compare/pallfnfindexm-vs-pcoppusdm): Compare the broad commodity index against copper. Track copper versus broad commodity leadership. - [Commodity Index vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/pallfnfindexm-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare the broad commodity index against oil. Track oil versus broader commodities. - [Commodity Index vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/pallfnfindexm-vs-cpiaucsl): Compare broad commodities against CPI. Track commodity-driven versus services-driven inflation. - [Energy Sector (XLE) vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare energy equities against crude oil. Track equity-commodity leverage. - [VSTOXX vs HYG](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-hyg): Compare European volatility against US high yield. Track European risk versus US credit. - [VIX vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-t10y2y): Compare the VIX against the yield curve. Track two distinct recession-risk signals. - [VIX vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-dgs10): Compare the VIX against the 10Y yield. Track volatility versus rates dynamics. - [VIX vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-dtwexbgs): Compare the VIX against the dollar index. Track two risk-off signals. - [Net Liquidity Index vs High Yield (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_cnli-vs-hyg): Compare the Convex Net Liquidity Index against HYG. Track liquidity versus credit appetite. - [Net Liquidity Index vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_cnli-vs-vixcls): Compare Net Liquidity against the VIX. Track liquidity conditions versus volatility. - [Recession Probability Index vs Sahm Rule](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crpi-vs-sahmrealtime): Compare the Convex Recession Probability Index against the Sahm rule. - [Risk Appetite Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crai-vs-spy): Compare the Convex Risk Appetite Index against the S&P 500. - [Personal Savings Rate vs Real Disposable Income](https://convextrade.com/compare/psavert-vs-dspic96): Compare the savings rate against real disposable income. Track savings behavior versus income growth. - [Credit Card Delinquency vs Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/drcclacbs-vs-revolsl): Compare credit card delinquency rate against revolving credit balances. Track stress versus borrowing. - [Bank Credit Card Balances vs Total Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/cclacbw027sbog-vs-revolsl): Compare bank credit card balances against total revolving credit. Track bank share of consumer borrowing. - [Commercial & Industrial Loans vs Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/compare/busloans-vs-indpro): Compare C&I loans against industrial production. Track credit supply versus real output. - [C&I Lending Standards vs C&I Loans](https://convextrade.com/compare/drtscilm-vs-busloans): Compare bank lending standard tightening against actual C&I loan growth. - [C&I Lending Standards vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/drtscilm-vs-unrate): Compare bank lending standards against unemployment. Track credit tightening versus labor market. - [Credit Card Delinquency vs Consumer Sentiment](https://convextrade.com/compare/drcclacbs-vs-umcsent): Compare credit card delinquency against consumer sentiment. Track financial stress versus mood. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-spy-momentum): Compare Nvidia against the 10Y yield. Track AI growth stock duration sensitivity. - [Apple (AAPL) vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare Apple against oil prices. Track mega-cap tech versus commodity inflation. - [JPMorgan (JPM) vs Regional Banks (KRE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-kre): Compare JPMorgan against regional banks. Track mega-bank versus regional stress. - [Apple (AAPL) vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-dxy): Compare Apple against the dollar index. Track multinational earnings FX exposure. - [Caterpillar (CAT) vs Copper](https://convextrade.com/compare/caterpillar-vs-pcoppusdm): Compare Caterpillar against copper. Track two global cycle proxies. - [Tesla (TSLA) vs Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-fcx): Compare Tesla against Freeport-McMoRan. Track EV demand versus copper mining. - [Amazon (AMZN) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-xly): Compare Amazon against consumer discretionary. Track AMZN's dominance in the sector. - [Alphabet (GOOGL) vs Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/compare/google-vs-xlc): Compare Alphabet against communication services. Track Google dominance in the sector. - [Meta (META) vs Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/compare/meta-vs-xlc): Compare Meta against communication services. Track Meta's contribution to the sector. - [Technology (XLK) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-dgs10): Compare technology against the 10Y yield. Track tech duration sensitivity. - [Financials (XLF) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-dgs10): Compare financials against the 10Y yield. Track bank NIM sensitivity. - [Real Estate (XLRE) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-dgs10): Compare real estate against the 10Y yield. Track REIT duration sensitivity. - [Utilities (XLU) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlu-vs-dgs10): Compare utilities against the 10Y yield. Track bond-proxy rate sensitivity. - [Consumer Staples (XLP) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlp-vs-dgs10): Compare staples against the 10Y yield. Track defensive rate sensitivity. - [Energy (XLE) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-dgs10): Compare energy against the 10Y yield. Track inflation cyclical relationship. - [Industrials (XLI) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xli-vs-dgs10): Compare industrials against the 10Y yield. Track capex cycle versus rates. - [Regional Banks (KRE) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/kre-vs-dgs10): Compare regional banks against the 10Y yield. Track NIM versus duration loss. - [Energy Sector (XLE) vs Commodity Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-pallfnfindexm): Compare energy equities against broad commodities. Track equity-commodity differentiation. - [Industrials (XLI) vs Copper](https://convextrade.com/compare/xli-vs-pcoppusdm): Compare industrials against copper. Track capex cycle equities versus industrial metal. - [Regional Banks (KRE) vs Case-Shiller Home Prices](https://convextrade.com/compare/kre-vs-csushpinsa): Compare regional banks against home prices. Track CRE exposure and residential mortgage risk. - [Homebuilders (XHB) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-mortgage30us): Compare homebuilders against mortgage rates. Track the key housing-cycle drivers together. - [EUR/USD vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexuseu-vs-gold): Compare EUR/USD against gold. Track dollar-alternative trades. - [USD/JPY vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexjpus-vs-gold): Compare USD/JPY against gold. Track dollar-yen versus gold dynamics. - [USD/CNY vs China Equity (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexchus-vs-fxi): Compare USD/CNY against Chinese equities. Track yuan policy versus equity performance. - [GBP/USD vs FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/gbpusd-vs-ftse100): Compare the pound against the FTSE. Track currency-adjusted UK equity exposure. - [EUR/GBP vs FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurgbp-vs-ftse100): Compare EUR/GBP against the FTSE. Track sterling strength versus UK equity. - [1Y vs 30Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs1-vs-dgs30): Compare the 1-year and 30-year Treasury yields. Track the widest short-to-long curve. - [10Y Breakeven Inflation vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/t10yie-vs-gold): Compare market-implied inflation expectations against gold. Track gold as inflation hedge. - [5Y Breakeven vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/t5yie-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare 5Y breakeven inflation against oil. Track near-term inflation expectations with oil. - [Michigan Inflation Expectations vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/mich-vs-cpiaucsl): Compare household inflation expectations against actual CPI. Track expectation anchoring. - [Recession Probability vs 10Y-2Y Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crpi-vs-t10y2y): Compare the Convex Recession Probability Index against the yield curve. - [Risk Appetite Index vs High Yield (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crai-vs-hyg): Compare the Convex Risk Appetite Index against HYG. - [Risk Appetite Index vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crai-vs-vixcls): Compare the Risk Appetite Index against the VIX. - [Net Liquidity Index vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_cnli-vs-walcl): Compare the Convex Net Liquidity Index against the raw Fed balance sheet. - [Net Liquidity vs Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_cnli-vs-rrpontsyd): Compare Net Liquidity against reverse repo balances. - [JPMorgan (JPM) vs Walmart (WMT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-walmart): Compare JPMorgan against Walmart. Track financial versus defensive consumer leadership. - [UnitedHealth (UNH) vs Walmart (WMT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/unitedhealth-vs-walmart): Compare UnitedHealth against Walmart. Track managed care versus discount retail. - [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs Caterpillar (CAT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/exxon-vs-caterpillar): Compare ExxonMobil against Caterpillar. Track energy versus industrial cyclical leadership. - [Microsoft (MSFT) vs Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-alphabet): Compare Microsoft against Alphabet. Track enterprise cloud versus ad-cloud leadership. - [Amazon (AMZN) vs Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-microsoft): Compare Amazon against Microsoft. Track two enterprise-cloud leaders head to head. - [Amazon (AMZN) vs Tesla (TSLA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-tesla): Compare Amazon against Tesla. Track two consumer-discretionary mega-caps. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Apple (AAPL)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-apple): Compare Nvidia against Apple. Track AI leader versus consumer hardware leader. - [Initial Jobless Claims vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/icsa-vs-spy): Compare initial claims against the S&P 500. Track labor stress versus equity markets. - [Nonfarm Payrolls vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/payems-vs-spy): Compare payrolls growth against the S&P 500. Track labor market versus equity valuations. - [Unemployment Rate vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/unrate-vs-spy): Compare unemployment rate against the S&P 500. Track labor market versus equities. - [Michigan Inflation Expectations vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/mich-vs-spy): Compare Michigan inflation expectations against the S&P 500. Track household inflation fears versus equity. - [Consumer Sentiment vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/umcsent-vs-spy): Compare Michigan consumer sentiment against the S&P 500. Track sentiment-versus-price. - [Auto Sales vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/totalsa-vs-spy): Compare total auto sales against the S&P 500. Track big-ticket consumer spending. - [Semiconductors (SMH) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/smh-vs-dgs10): Compare the semiconductor ETF against the 10Y yield. Track semis duration sensitivity. - [Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/qqq-vs-dgs10): Compare the Nasdaq 100 against the 10Y yield. Track growth stocks duration sensitivity. - [S&P 500 vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-dgs10): Compare the S&P 500 against the 10Y yield. Track stocks-versus-rates overall. - [Russell 2000 (IWM) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/iwm-vs-dgs10): Compare the Russell 2000 against the 10Y yield. Track small caps rate sensitivity. - [HY Spreads vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/bamlh0a0hym2-vs-iwm): Compare HY spreads against small caps. Track credit versus equity risk in small firms. - [TIPS (TIP) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-dgs10): Compare TIPS ETF against the 10Y nominal yield. Track real yield dynamics. - [TIPS (TIP) vs Intermediate Treasury (IEF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-ief): Compare TIPS against intermediate nominal Treasuries. Isolate breakeven inflation. - [EUR/USD vs Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexuseu-vs-eurostoxx50): Compare EUR/USD against Euro Stoxx 50. Track currency-adjusted European equity. - [USD/JPY vs Japan ETF (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexjpus-vs-ewj): Compare USD/JPY against the Japan ETF. Track yen weakness versus Japan equity. - [USD/CNY vs Copper](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexchus-vs-pcoppusdm): Compare USD/CNY against copper. Track yuan and Chinese demand signals. - [Housing Starts vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/houst-vs-payems): Compare housing starts against payrolls. Track construction employment and housing cycle. - [Case-Shiller Home Prices vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/csushpinsa-vs-unrate): Compare home prices against unemployment. Track housing wealth versus labor market. - [Homebuilders (XHB) vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-unrate): Compare homebuilders against unemployment. Track equity leading indicators versus labor. - [30Y Mortgage Rate vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage30us-vs-unrate): Compare mortgage rates against unemployment. Track rates versus labor. - [Nominal GDP vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-walcl): Compare nominal GDP against the Fed balance sheet. Track real-economy versus Fed liquidity. - [Nominal GDP vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-spy): Compare nominal GDP against the S&P 500. Track real-economy growth versus equity valuations. - [Real GDP vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdpc1-vs-payems): Compare real GDP against payrolls. Track productivity growth. - [PPI Services vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/ppifis-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare services PPI against oil prices. Track services versus commodity inflation. - [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/xom-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare Exxon equity against oil. Track integrated oil equity leverage. - [EM Dollar Index vs Emerging Markets (EEM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dtwexemegs-vs-eem): Compare the EM dollar index against the EM equity ETF. - [Dollar ETF (UUP) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/uup-vs-spy): Compare the dollar ETF against the S&P 500. Track dollar versus US equities through ETFs. - [Brent vs WTI (Alt Framing)](https://convextrade.com/compare/brent-vs-dcoilwtico): Alternative direct comparison of Brent and WTI crude. - [WTI Oil vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dcoilwtico-vs-gold): Compare oil against gold. Track the oil-gold ratio. - [Copper vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/pcoppusdm-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare copper against oil. Track industrial metal versus energy commodity. - [Agriculture (DBA) vs Commodity Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/dba-vs-pallfnfindexm): Compare agricultural commodities against the broad index. - [St. Louis Financial Stress vs High Yield (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/stlfsi4-vs-hyg): Compare STLFSI4 against HYG. Track financial stress versus credit. - [Adjusted NFCI vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/anfci-vs-spy): Compare the Adjusted NFCI against the S&P 500. Track excess financial stress. - [Financial Stress Index vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/stlfsi4-vs-vixcls): Compare financial stress against VIX. - [Chicago NFCI vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/nfci-vs-spy): Compare the Chicago Fed NFCI against the S&P 500. - [Recession Probability Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crpi-vs-spy): Compare the Convex Recession Probability Index against the S&P 500. - [Net Liquidity vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_cnli-vs-spy-alt): Compare Net Liquidity against QQQ. Track liquidity versus tech equity. - [Recession Probability vs Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crpi-vs-payems): Compare CRPI against payrolls growth. - [Recession Probability vs Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/convex_crpi-vs-xlf): Compare CRPI against financials. - [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-walcl): Compare Nvidia against the Fed balance sheet. Track AI leader versus liquidity. - [Microsoft (MSFT) vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-walcl): Compare Microsoft against the Fed balance sheet. - [Tesla (TSLA) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-dgs10): Compare Tesla against the 10Y yield. Track TSLA duration sensitivity. - [JPMorgan vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-t10y2y): Compare JPMorgan against the yield curve. Track bank NIM dynamics. - [Financials (XLF) vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-t10y2y): Compare financials against the yield curve. Track bank sector NIM leverage. - [Regional Banks (KRE) vs 10Y-2Y Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/kre-vs-t10y2y): Compare regional banks against the yield curve. - [Technology (XLK) vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-vixcls): Compare technology against the VIX. Track tech risk-on leadership. - [Russell 2000 (IWM) vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/iwm-vs-vixcls): Compare small caps against the VIX. - [Emerging Markets (EEM) vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/eem-vs-vixcls): Compare EM equities against the VIX. - [Long Treasury (TLT) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tlt-vs-iwm): Compare long Treasuries against small caps. Track duration versus small-cap risk. - [Gold vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-spy-alt): Compare gold against the Nasdaq 100. Track hedge asset versus growth. - [Gold vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-iwm): Compare gold against small-cap equities. - [VIX vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-walcl): Compare VIX against the Fed balance sheet. Track volatility versus Fed liquidity. - [Sahm Rule vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahmrealtime-vs-spy): Compare the Sahm rule indicator against the S&P 500. - [10Y-3M Yield Curve vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/t10y3m-vs-spy): Compare the 10Y-3M curve against the S&P 500. - [Unemployment Rate vs Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/unrate-vs-spy-alt): Compare unemployment against technology sector. - [Initial Claims vs Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/icsa-vs-xlf): Compare initial jobless claims against financials. Track labor stress versus banks. - [Homebuilders (XHB) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-iwm): Compare homebuilders against small caps. - [WTI Oil vs Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/wti-vs-xlk): Compare oil against technology. Track commodity inflation versus growth. - [10Y Treasury vs Case-Shiller Home Prices](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs10-vs-csushpinsa): Compare 10Y yield against home prices. - [30Y Mortgage Rate vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage30us-vs-spy): Compare the mortgage rate against the S&P 500. - [Building Permits vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/permit-vs-spy): Compare permits against the S&P 500. - [Housing Starts vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/houst-vs-spy): Compare housing starts against the S&P 500. - [Average Weekly Hours vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/awhaetp-vs-spy): Compare weekly hours worked against the S&P 500. - [C&I Loans vs Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/busloans-vs-xlf): Compare C&I loans against the financial sector. - [Revolving Credit vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/revolsl-vs-xly): Compare revolving credit against consumer discretionary. - [Personal Savings Rate vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/psavert-vs-xly): Compare the savings rate against consumer discretionary. - [Michigan Inflation Expectations vs Consumer Discretionary](https://convextrade.com/compare/mich-vs-xly): Compare Michigan inflation expectations against XLY. - [Consumer Sentiment vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/umcsent-vs-xly): Compare consumer sentiment against consumer discretionary. - [Apple (AAPL) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/aapl-vs-xly): Alternative comparison: Apple against consumer discretionary. - [Technology (XLK) vs High Yield (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-hyg): Compare technology against high yield. Track equity risk versus credit risk. - [Financials (XLF) vs High Yield (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-hyg): Compare financials against high yield. Track bank equities versus credit. - [Utilities (XLU) vs High Yield (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlu-vs-hyg): Compare utilities against high yield. - [VSTOXX vs Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-eurostoxx50): Compare Eurozone implied volatility against Eurozone equities. - [VSTOXX vs DAX](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-dax): Compare European volatility against the German DAX. - [VSTOXX vs FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-ftse100): Compare European volatility against UK equities. - [Effective Fed Funds Rate vs Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/effr-vs-fedfunds): Compare the effective (realized) fed funds rate against the Fed target. Track how closely the market tracks the Fed target. - [10Y Term Premium vs 10Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/threefytp10-vs-t10yie): Compare the estimated 10-year term premium against the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Track the two risk premia embedded in long yields. - [Investment Grade Yield vs High Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/bamlc0a0cmey-vs-bamlh0a0hym2ey): Compare all-in investment-grade bond yields against high-yield bond yields. Track absolute income offered across credit quality. - [4-Week Avg Initial Claims vs Continuing Claims](https://convextrade.com/compare/ic4wsa-vs-ccsa): Compare the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims against continuing claims. Track the smoothed flow into and stock of unemployment. - [Corporate Profits After Tax vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpatax-vs-spy): Compare NIPA corporate profits after tax against the S&P 500. Track whether equity prices are anchored to economy-wide earnings. - [Energy CPI vs WTI Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpiengsl-vs-wti): Compare the energy component of CPI against WTI spot. Track the pass-through from crude to consumer energy prices. - [Food CPI vs Agriculture ETF (DBA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpiufdsl-vs-dba): Compare food CPI against the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund. Track the pass-through from farm-gate commodities to consumer food prices. - [Supercore Services CPI vs Headline CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/supercore-vs-cpi): Compare supercore services CPI (ex-shelter) against headline CPI. Track the stickiest inflation component versus the full basket. - [New Vehicles CPI vs Headline CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/new-vehicles-cpi-vs-cpi): Compare new-vehicle CPI against headline CPI. Track the auto component as an early pipeline-inflation signal. - [Trade Balance vs Nominal GDP](https://convextrade.com/compare/trade-balance-vs-gdp): Compare the US goods trade balance against nominal GDP. Track the external deficit as a share of the economy. - [Durable Goods Orders vs Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/compare/durable-goods-vs-industrial-production): Compare durable goods orders against industrial production. Track forward orders against current output. - [Inventory-to-Sales Ratio vs Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/compare/inventory-sales-vs-industrial-production): Compare the wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio against industrial production. Track inventory overhang versus factory output. - [Inventory-to-Sales Ratio vs Retail Sales](https://convextrade.com/compare/inventory-sales-vs-retail-sales): Compare the inventory-to-sales ratio against retail sales ex-food-services. Track wholesale-channel inventory against end demand. - [Capacity Utilization vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/capacity-utilization-vs-spy): Compare total industry capacity utilization against the S&P 500. Track real-economy slack against equity valuations. - [Capacity Utilization vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/capacity-utilization-vs-unemployment): Compare capacity utilization against the unemployment rate. Track factory slack against labor slack. - [New-Home Months Supply vs 30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/months-supply-vs-mortgage-rate): Compare new-home months-of-supply inventory against the 30Y mortgage rate. Track inventory response to financing costs. - [New Home Sales vs 30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/new-home-sales-vs-mortgage-rate): Compare new-home sales against the 30Y mortgage rate. Track demand response to financing costs. - [Real Disposable Income vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/disposable-income-vs-cpi): Compare real disposable personal income against headline CPI. Track household purchasing power against price levels. - [Dow Jones (DIA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dia-vs-qqq): Compare DIA (Dow 30 blue chips) against QQQ (Nasdaq 100 tech growth). Track old-economy leadership against tech leadership. - [Brazilian Real vs Broad Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/brl-vs-dxy): Compare the USD/BRL exchange rate against the broad dollar index. Track emerging-market currency stress beyond the dollar trend. - [EUR/GBP vs GBP/USD](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurgbp-vs-gbpusd): Compare the EUR/GBP cross against GBP/USD. Triangulate sterling strength between euro and dollar. - [Bank Reserves vs Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/compare/reserves-vs-rrp): Compare bank reserves against the overnight reverse repo balance. Track the Fed liability split between banks and money funds. - [Treasury General Account vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/tga-vs-walcl): Compare the TGA against the Fed balance sheet. Track how Treasury cash balances affect net liquidity. - [OECD Leading Indicator vs St Louis Fed LEI](https://convextrade.com/compare/oecd-lei-vs-stlouis-lei): Compare the OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the US against the St Louis Fed leading index. Track two independent leading-indicator frameworks. - [OECD Leading Indicator vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/oecd-lei-vs-unemployment): Compare the OECD US Composite Leading Indicator against unemployment. Track the leading indicator against its target variable. - [Adjusted Chicago NFCI vs St Louis Financial Stress](https://convextrade.com/compare/anfci-vs-stlfsi4): Compare the Chicago Fed Adjusted NFCI against the St Louis Financial Stress Index. Track two financial-conditions benchmarks. - [CAC 40 (France) vs FTSE 100 (UK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/cac40-vs-ftse100): Compare the French CAC 40 against the UK FTSE 100. Track French versus UK equity leadership across European cycles. - [CAC 40 (France) vs Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/compare/cac40-vs-eurostoxx50): Compare CAC 40 against the broad Euro Stoxx 50. Track French large-cap leadership within the Eurozone. - [Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot vs Energy Sector ETF](https://convextrade.com/compare/natgas-spot-vs-xle): Compare Henry Hub natural gas spot prices against the XLE energy sector ETF. Track commodity price versus equity cash flow response. - [Consumer Lending Standards vs Credit Card Delinquency](https://convextrade.com/compare/consumer-standards-vs-delinquency): Compare bank tightening on consumer cards against the credit-card delinquency rate. Track underwriting response to realized losses. - [Total Consumer Credit vs Revolving Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/total-credit-vs-revolving): Compare total consumer credit against revolving (credit card) credit. Track the mix of consumer borrowing across card versus installment debt. - [Average Weekly Hours vs Average Hourly Earnings](https://convextrade.com/compare/hours-vs-wages): Compare average weekly hours against average hourly earnings. Track labor-market intensive versus extensive margin. - [Job Openings vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/job-openings-vs-nonfarm): Compare JOLTS job openings against nonfarm payrolls. Track labor-demand pipeline versus realized hiring. - [Shelter CPI vs Case-Shiller Home Prices](https://convextrade.com/compare/shelter-cpi-vs-home-prices): Compare shelter CPI against Case-Shiller home prices. Track the rent-lease versus home-price channels of housing inflation. - [Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsp-vs-qqq): Compare equal-weight S&P 500 against cap-weighted Nasdaq 100. Track breadth versus concentration leadership. - [Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) vs Dow Jones (DIA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsp-vs-dia): Compare equal-weight S&P 500 against the Dow. Track broad participation versus blue-chip leadership. - [Developed ex-US (EFA) vs Dow Jones (DIA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/efa-vs-dia): Compare developed ex-US equities against the Dow. Track international versus US blue-chip leadership. - [Developed ex-US (EFA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/efa-vs-qqq): Compare developed-market equities against the Nasdaq 100. Track global value versus US tech growth. - [Developed ex-US (EFA) vs China (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/efa-vs-fxi): Compare developed ex-US against Chinese equities. Track developed-market versus China EM leadership. - [Developed ex-US (EFA) vs Japan (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/efa-vs-ewj): Compare broad developed ex-US against Japan specifically. Track whether Japan is leading or lagging the developed complex. - [Developed ex-US (EFA) vs Germany (EWG)](https://convextrade.com/compare/efa-vs-ewg): Compare broad developed ex-US against Germany specifically. Track Germany within the developed complex. - [Gold ETF (GLD) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/gld-vs-spy): Compare the GLD gold ETF against the S&P 500. Track safe-haven against risk-on allocation. - [SOFR vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/sofr-vs-dgs10): Compare overnight SOFR against the 10Y Treasury yield. Track the short-long funding spread. - [SOFR vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/sofr-vs-fedfunds): Compare the SOFR overnight rate against the effective fed funds rate. Track secured-vs-unsecured overnight funding. - [30Y Mortgage Rate vs 30Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage-rate-vs-30y): Compare the 30Y mortgage rate against the 30Y Treasury yield. Track the mortgage-Treasury spread. - [Dow Jones (DIA) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dia-vs-iwm): Compare the Dow Jones blue-chip index against Russell 2000 small caps. Track large-cap quality versus small-cap risk. - [Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) vs EM (EEM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsp-vs-eem): Compare equal-weight S&P 500 against emerging markets. Track broad US versus EM leadership. - [Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) vs Developed ex-US (EFA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsp-vs-efa): Compare equal-weight S&P 500 against developed ex-US equities. Track the US-vs-developed-world rotation net of mega-cap tech. - [Germany (EWG) vs China (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/ewg-vs-fxi): Compare German equities against Chinese equities. Track the export engines of Europe and Asia. - [Euro Stoxx 50 vs FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurostoxx-vs-ftse): Compare the Eurozone large-cap index against UK blue-chips. Track Eurozone versus UK equity leadership. - [Corporate Profits vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/corp-profits-vs-unemployment): Compare corporate profits after tax against the unemployment rate. Track earnings strength against labor market slack. - [Corporate Profits vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/corp-profits-vs-fed-funds): Compare corporate profits after tax against the fed funds rate. Track earnings power against policy-rate cycles. - [New Home Sales vs Case-Shiller Home Prices](https://convextrade.com/compare/new-home-sales-vs-home-prices): Compare new-home sales against Case-Shiller home prices. Track housing demand against price levels. - [Credit Card Delinquency vs Total Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/compare/cc-delinquency-vs-total-credit): Compare credit-card delinquency rates against total consumer credit outstanding. Track credit stress against borrowing appetite. - [10Y Breakeven Inflation vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/breakeven-10y-vs-nominal-10y): Compare the 10Y breakeven inflation rate against the 10Y nominal yield. Isolate the real-yield component. - [Durable Goods Orders vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/durable-goods-vs-spy): Compare durable goods orders against the S&P 500. Track business capex against equity prices. - [Durable Goods Orders vs Corporate Profits](https://convextrade.com/compare/durable-goods-vs-corp-profits): Compare durable goods orders against corporate profits. Track business capex against profitability. - [1Y Treasury Yield vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/1y-vs-fed-funds): Compare the 1Y Treasury yield against the fed funds rate. Track market expectations for Fed policy over the next year. - [New Vehicles CPI vs Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/new-vehicles-vs-core-cpi): Compare new-vehicle CPI against core CPI. Track the auto pipeline against broad core inflation. - [Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) vs Japanese Yen (JPY/USD)](https://convextrade.com/compare/cny-vs-jpy): Compare USD/CNY against USD/JPY. Track two major Asian currencies against the dollar. - [PPI Final Demand vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/ppi-vs-10y): Compare PPI final demand against the 10Y Treasury yield. Track producer-price inflation against long-end yields. - [Fed Funds vs Bank of Canada Overnight Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-vs-boc-rates): Compare the Federal Reserve policy rate and the Bank of Canada overnight rate side by side. Track US-Canada policy divergence and its impact on USD/CAD. - [Fed Funds vs RBA Cash Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-vs-rba-rates): Compare US Federal Reserve rate and Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate side by side. Track AUD/USD drivers and Asia-Pacific policy divergence. - [Fed Funds vs Brazil Selic Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-vs-bcb-rates): Compare US Federal Reserve rate and Brazil Selic rate side by side. Track emerging-market policy divergence and the BRL carry trade. - [US 10Y vs Canada 10Y Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-10y-vs-canada-10y): Compare 10-year US Treasury and Canada Government Bond yields side by side. Track long-end policy divergence and the Canada-US term-premium spread. - [US 10Y vs Australia 10Y Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-10y-vs-australia-10y): Compare 10-year US Treasury and Australian Government Bond yields side by side. Track Asia-Pacific long-end policy divergence and AUD carry dynamics. - [VIX vs MOVE Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/vix-vs-move): Compare equity volatility (VIX) and bond volatility (MOVE Index) side by side. Track cross-asset volatility dispersion and regime changes. - [China vs Japan US Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/compare/china-vs-japan-treasury-holdings): Compare monthly US Treasury holdings by China and Japan side by side. Track the two largest foreign Treasury holders and global reserve-management shifts. - [FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 (SPY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/margin-debt-vs-spy): Compare FINRA margin debt and S&P 500 levels side by side. Track retail leverage cycles, margin-call risk, and equity-market froth indicators. - [Atlanta Fed GDPNow vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdpnow-vs-m2): Compare Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast and M2 money supply side by side. Track real-time growth nowcasts against the monetary-aggregate backdrop. - [M2 Money Supply vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/m2-vs-fed-balance-sheet): Compare M2 money supply and Federal Reserve balance sheet size side by side. Track the monetary-base-to-broad-money transmission mechanism. - [Sahm Rule vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahm-vs-yield-curve): Compare the Sahm Rule recession indicator and the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve side by side. Track two leading recession signals. - [US Composite Leading Indicator vs Euro Area CLI](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-cli-vs-euro-cli): Compare OECD Composite Leading Indicators for the US and Euro Area side by side. Track transatlantic cycle divergence. - [China CLI vs US Composite Leading Indicator](https://convextrade.com/compare/china-cli-vs-us-cli): Compare OECD Composite Leading Indicators for China and the US side by side. Track global growth-cycle divergence between the two largest economies. - [US vs China BIS Credit Gap](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-vs-china-bis-credit-gap): Compare the BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the US and China side by side. Track relative credit-cycle positioning and systemic risk. - [Brazil Selic Rate vs BRL/USD Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/selic-vs-brl-usd): Compare Brazil Selic policy rate and BRL/USD exchange rate side by side. Track Brazilian monetary policy and carry-trade dynamics. - [NAHB Housing Market Index vs Homebuilder Stocks (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nahb-hmi-vs-homebuilders): Compare NAHB Housing Market Index sentiment and homebuilder stock prices (XHB) side by side. Track builder confidence against homebuilder equity. - [5-Year Breakeven Inflation vs Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/breakeven-5y-vs-core-cpi): Compare 5-year breakeven inflation and core CPI side by side. Track market-based inflation expectations against realized core inflation. - [Money Market Fund Assets vs S&P 500 (SPY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/mmf-flows-vs-spy): Compare total US money market fund assets (ICI) and S&P 500 side by side. Track cash-on-the-sidelines dynamics and risk-asset rotation. - [US vs Japan IMF GDP Growth Forecast](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-vs-japan-gdp-forecast): Compare IMF World Economic Outlook GDP growth forecasts for the US and Japan side by side. Track transpacific cycle divergence. ## Recent Articles (latest 50) ## Learning Guides - [Macro Trading](https://convextrade.com/learn/macro): Regime classification, central bank policy, and cross-asset allocation - [Equities](https://convextrade.com/learn/equities): Sector ETFs, breadth analysis, rotation, and earnings-driven trades - [Volatility](https://convextrade.com/learn/volatility): VIX analysis, implied vs realized volatility, and fear premium - [Commodities](https://convextrade.com/learn/commodities): Oil, gold, natural gas with inventory fundamentals and CFTC positioning - [Crypto / Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/learn/crypto): On-chain analytics, derivatives positioning, and sentiment indicators - [Sports Betting](https://convextrade.com/learn/sports): Statistical edge detection, Kelly criterion, and line value analysis - [Prediction Markets](https://convextrade.com/learn/predictions): Polymarket mispricing detection and event probability modeling ## Public API Reference All endpoints return JSON, are rate-limited to 100 req/day unauthenticated, and require visible attribution in published content. ### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/macro-summary Complete macro snapshot for AI agents. Includes regime, CRPI, stress index, key rates, VIX, credit spreads, inflation, and narrative. Example response: ```json { "regime": { "current": "Stagflation", "confidence": 72, "trajectory": "deteriorating" }, "recession_probability": 34, "stress_index": 45, "net_liquidity_trn": 5.42, "key_rates": { "10y": 4.25, "2y": 3.95, "spread_2s10s_bps": 30 }, "volatility": { "vix": 18.5 }, "credit": { "hy_spread_bps": 350 }, "inflation": { "cpi_yoy_pct": 3.2 }, "narrative": "...", "attribution": "Data by Convex, https://convextrade.com" } ``` ### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/regime Current macro regime with per-asset directional views. ### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/metrics/{ticker} Current value, historical changes, and interpretation for any metric. Replace {ticker} with any supported ID (e.g., dgs10, vixcls, spy, btc, convex_crpi). ### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/signals Convex composite indices plus key market signals. ### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/content/latest Latest 5 articles with summaries, ready for syndication. Full OpenAPI spec: https://convextrade.com/.well-known/openapi.yaml MCP spec: https://convextrade.com/.well-known/mcp.json